原文作者：南枳
Original author: Nanjian
原文来源：Odaily星球日报
Source: Odaily Planet.
自上周五（6 月 7 日）比特币短暂触及 72000 美元的高点后，市场整体又开始了一轮大崩盘。今夜，CPI 和美联储利率决定又将公布，新一轮的大波动即将到来。
After Bitcoin briefly hit the $72,000 high point last Friday (7 June), the market as a whole began another round of collapse. This evening, CPI and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions will be announced, and a new round of big fluctuations is approaching.
各机构和研究院如何看待后市行情？Odaily星球日报于本文汇总自 6 月 7 日以来其主要观点如下。
How do institutions and institutions view post-market developments? The Odaily Planet Daily, in this paper, summarizes the main points made since June 7 below.
看多派：牛市继续 10x：如果 BTC 突破 72000 美元将继续突破新高，看多 BTC/ETH 汇率
See multi-pitch: Cow City continues 10x: If BTC breaks $72,000, it's going to go up to the top, see BTC/ETH exchange rate.
10x Research 在其最新市场分析报告中表示，今晚的双重宏观事件 CPI 和 FOMC 在上周美国就业数据高于预期之后似乎难以预测，导致大多数华尔街银行将首次降息预期推迟至 9 月或更晚。尽管对利率敏感的纳斯达克继续创下历史新高，但比特币已经从 71, 000 美元下跌至 67, 000 美元。
10x Research, in its latest market analysis report, stated that tonight’s double macro event CPI and FOMC seemed unpredictable after higher than expected employment data in the United States last week, leading most Wall Street banks to postpone their first interest reduction expectations to September or later. Although Nasdak, which is sensitive to interest rates, continues to be at an all-time high, Bitcoin has fallen from $71,000 to $67,000.
如果比特币价格攀升至 72, 000 美元（71, 946 美元）以上，可能会突破新高。然而，过度配置以太坊（杠杆）期货可能会导致对比特币的负面影响，并且比特币比以太坊更受青睐（上周 BTC 下跌 5% ，ETH 下跌 9% ）。
美国 SEC 主席 Gary Gensler 关于以太坊 ETF S-1 批准需要时间的评论似乎更有可能开始解除杠杆多头头寸，而不是重新定价华尔街的利率预期。围绕以太坊 ETF 的热情已经大幅下降，ETH/BTC 汇率继续下行。 US SEC President Gary Gensler’s comment that ETA ETF S-1 approval takes time seems more likely to start deleveraging multiple positions than reprising interest rates on Wall Street. The enthusiasm around ETA ETF has declined dramatically, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to decline. 泡菜溢价正在反弹，代表韩国需求增长 The pickle premium is rebounding, representing an increase in demand in Korea. 最近，韩国比特币“泡菜溢价”在 4 月中旬接近 10% 后跌至 1% 以下，而目前溢价正在反弹。CryptoQuant 数据显示，在 6 月 4 日触及 0.62% 的低点（当时全球价格几乎相同）之后，截至 6 月 6 日，溢价攀升至 3.42% 。分析指出，通常情况下，这表明韩国的需求增长，可能会在短期内推高比特币的价格。 Recently, South Korea’s pickle premium fell to below 1% after approaching 10% in mid-April, and the premium is now rebounding. CryptoQuant shows that, after reaching a low of 0.62% on June 4 (when global prices were almost the same), as of June 6, the premium had risen to 3.42%. Analysis suggests that, as a rule, ‘strong’ indicates an increase in demand in South Korea and is likely to push bitcoin prices in the short term. 此外，CoinMarketCap 6 月 9 日的存档数据显示，比特币的全球交易价格为 69, 288 美元，而在 Upbit 上，比特币的价格为 71, 130 美元，高出 2.658% 。Bithumb、Coinone 和 Korbit 也出现了类似的溢价。以太坊的溢价也为 2.69% ，全球价格为 3, 679 美元，Upbit 和其他平台上的价格为 3, 778 美元。（Bitcoin.com） In addition, CoinMarketCap, on file on 9 June, showed that Bitcoin had a global transaction price of $69,288 and, on Upbit, a price of $71,130, or 2.658 per cent higher. Similar premiums were found in Bitimb, Coinone and Korbit. The premium was also 2.69 per cent in Etheria, $3,679 in global prices, and $3,778 in Upbit and other platforms. (Bitcoin.com) BTC 从 CEX 转向 DEX 意味着长期看涨 BTC Moving from CEX to DEX means going up in the long run. Glassnode 数据显示，由于投资者在等待牛市的价格上涨，中心化交易所的比特币和以太坊用户余额大幅下降，比特币的价值跌至不到 230 万枚（约合 1580 亿美元），而以太坊的价值跌至不到 1600 万枚（约合不到 580 亿美元）。这两种主要加密货币的用户余额已跌至四年来的最低点，分析师将此举解读为未来看涨的信号。因为交易所余额的下降表明人们对这些数字资产的长期潜力越来越有信心，投资者选择将他们的加密货币从交易大厅中取出并放入深度冻结状态。（Bitcoinist） Glassnode data show that because investors are waiting for the price increase in the cattle market, the centralized exchange’s Bitcoin and Ether’s user balance have fallen sharply, falling to less than 2.3 million pieces (about $15.8 billion), while the value of the pit has fallen to less than 16 million (about $58 billion). The two major encrypted currencies’ user balance has fallen to its lowest point in four years, and analysts have interpreted it as a sign of an increase in the future. Since the declining balance of the exchange Bitfinex：欧元降息利好 BTC Bitfinex: good interest reduction in the euro BTC 6 月 7 日，Bitfinex 分析师表示，由于投资者对风险资产的兴趣下降，BTC 本周或低于 70, 000 美元大关（已实现）。不过，此前欧元降息可能会增加比特币的流动性，因为降息可能会削弱欧元，从而可能导致对比特币等另类资产的需求增加。货币宽松政策带来的流动性增加也可能支持包括加密货币在内的风险资产。（Cointelgraph） On 7 June, Bitfinex analysts indicated that BTC was at or below $70,000 (achieved) this week due to a decline in investor interest in venture assets. However, previously interest reductions in the euro might have increased the liquidity of bitcoins, as interest cuts might have weakened the euro, which could have led to increased demand for alternative assets, such as bitcoins . The increased liquidity associated with monetary easing could also support risk assets, including encrypted currencies. (Cointelgraph) Bitfinex：本轮周期 BTC 将上涨至 12 万美元以上 Bitfinex: BTC will rise to over $120,000 for the current cycle 加密货币交易所 Bitfinex 的分析师预测，当前的比特币牛市周期可能在 2024 年第四季度达到顶峰，分析师表示，历史数据表明，比特币通常会在减半事件发生几个月后达到历史新高（ATH），因此预测市场顶部可能出现在 2024 年第四季度左右。 The analyst of the encrypted currency exchange Bitfinex predicted that the current cycle of the Bitcoin cattle could peak in the fourth quarter of 2024. The analyst indicated that historical data indicated that Bitcoins would normally reach historical heights (ATH) a few months after the halving event, and that therefore predicted that the top of the market might appear around the fourth quarter of 2024 . Bitfinex 分析师预测，在当前周期中，根据链上指标和历史模式，预计比特币将在本轮周期内达到至少 12 万美元的峰值。（TheBlock） Bitfinex analysts predict that, in the current cycle, based on chain indicators and historical patterns, Bitcoin is expected to reach a peak of at least $120,000 during the current cycle. QCP Capital：BTC 将继续走高 QCP Capital: BTC will continue to go up 加密资产交易公司 QCP Capital 的分析师表示，今天发布的美国失业救济申请报告和下周发布的 CPI 可能是比特币创下历史新高的催化剂。此外，伴随潜在降息的可能性，比特币可能将进一步走高。分析师还预计，ETH 短期内将继续表现落后，并指出美国证券交易委员会主席 Gary Gensler 昨天在接受 CNBC 采访时表示，现货以太坊 ETF S-1 批准“将需要一些时间”。（Theblock） QCP Capital's analyst said that today's U.S. unemployment relief application report and next week's launch of the CPI could be a pre-existing catalyst for Bitcoin. Moreover, with potential interest reductions, Bitcoin might be further elevated. The analyst also predicted that ETH would continue to lag behind in the short term, noting that Gary Gensler, Chairman of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, said yesterday in an interview with the CNBC that the spot was approved by Taipan ETF S-1 “will take some time”. 中立派：不排除横盘的可能性 ETF 流入并非押注看涨 The ETF's inflow isn't just a bet. 尽管美国上市的现货比特币 ETF 流入量创下历史新高，但比特币现货价格仍继续在窄幅区间波动。ETF 流入似乎是非方向性现金和套利策略的一部分，并不一定代表彻底的看涨押注。匿名市场观察员 CMS Holdings 表示：“实体买入 ETF 并卖出 CME 期货，以降低一些主要市场的基差，从而让实体实现净利润，这也是为什么 ETF 流入量很高，但现货相对没有变化的原因。”这种策略通常被称为现金套利，旨在从期货市场相对于现货市场的溢价中获利。（Coindesk） Although the US marketed spot-based Bitcoin ETF inflows were historically high, spot prices continued to fluctuate between narrow areas. ETF inflows appeared to be part of a non-directional cash and arbitrage strategy that did not necessarily represent a complete upswing. CMS Holdings, an anonymous market observer, said: “The entity buys ETFs and sells CME futures in order to lower the base of some major markets, thereby allowing the entity to realize net profits 比特币三季度回测数据表现平平 Bitcoin's three-quarter feedback was flat. 据链上分析师 Ali 在 X 平台发文表示，从历史上看，比特币一般在第三季度表现不佳，平均回报率仅为 6.49% ，中位回报率为-2.57% 。 According to the chain analyst Ali, on platform X, historically BTC 在 67350 美元价位存在强力支撑 BTC is strongly supported at 67350 dollars. 据链上分析师 Ali 在 X 平台发文表示，比特币锚定在 67, 350 美元至 69, 380 美元之间的强劲支撑区域，其中 197 万个地址拥有 964, 000 枚比特币，保持这一水平对于比特币维持其上升势头至关重要。 According to the chain analyst Ali, on platform X, 看跌派：市场仍不乐观 Cryptoquant：ETH 将在短期继续下跌 Cryptoquant: ETH will continue to fall in the short term. Cryptoquant 分析师 ShayanBTC 表示，以太坊价格可能在短期内继续下跌，除非市场情况有所改观。当前以太坊价格难以突破 4000 美元，期货市场的买卖比率（7 天移动平均值）显示卖方占优。该比率最近未能上升至 1 以上，并且急剧下降，这表明大多数期货交易者或出于投机目的，或为了实现利润而正在抛售以太坊。其表示，这一趋势是一个看跌信号，如果这种趋势继续下去，当前的下行回撤可能会持续。 Cryptoquant analyst ShayanBTC said that the price of Taiping may continue to fall in the short term, unless market conditions improve. The current sales ratio for futures markets (an average of seven days of movement) shows that sellers are better at 4000 dollars at Taiping prices. The ratio has not recently risen to more than 1 and has fallen sharply, indicating that most futures traders are selling in Taipinga either for speculative purposes or for profit purposes. QCP Capital：逢跌买入 QCP Capital: Buy when you fall QCP Capital 在 6 月 8 日市场分析中表示，非农数据的意外超预期以及失业率的上升，足以在下周三美国通胀数据和 FOMC 公布之前引发避险情绪。 QCP Capital, in its market analysis on 8 June, stated that the unexpected over-expectedness of non-farm data and the rise in unemployment were sufficient to create a sense of risk before the US inflation data and FOMC were released next Wednesday. 此外，Roaring Kitty 的直播吸引了近百万人观看，在此期间 GME 股价暴跌。山寨币和 Meme 币同步下挫，市值蒸发超过 400 亿美元，这可能并非巧合。 In addition, Rawing Kitty’s live broadcasts attracted nearly a million people, during which the GME stock price fell sharply. It may not be a coincidence that the price evaporates by more than $40 billion at the same time as the price of the bounties and meme. 在这次下跌中存在看涨资金流，包括激进看跌期权的卖家和看涨价差的买家，尤其是 BTC。 In this fall, there were upward capital flows, including vendors who looked down aggressively and buyers who looked at price differentials, especially BTC. QCP Capital 认为，本次下跌是逢低买入的好机会，因为市场将越来越多地消化美联储从现在起至少会降息一次的影响。随着全球其他国家继续降息，美国将很难忽视这一点。返回搜狐，查看更多 QCP Capital argues that this fall is a good opportunity for low purchases, because the market will increasingly absorb the impact of the Fed at least once from now on. It will be difficult for the United States to ignore this as the rest of the world continues to lower interest rates.
责任编辑：
注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
发表评论