2009年1月3日，比特币创始人中本聪亲手创建了第一个区块——即比特币的创世区块（Genesis Block），并获得了系统自动产生的第一笔50枚比特币的奖励，第一个比特币就此问世。
On 3 January 2009, the founder of Bitcoin created the first block — the Genesis Block — and received the first 50 bitcoins to be generated automatically by the system, the first bitcoins to be born.
从比特币的产出机制来看，比特币是由矿机通过计算，算出比特币网络内区块上的“数学难题”，谁先解出该区块，就能获得这个区块的记账权，并获得该区块内的比特币奖励，矿工也就随之诞生。
According to the Bitcoin output mechanism, Bitcoin was calculated by the miner to calculate the “mathematical difficulties” of the block in the Bitcoin network, and whoever first solved the block would have the right to account for the block and received the Bitcoin reward in the block, and the miners would be born.
2013年ASIC矿机问世，挖矿逐步演化成了一个行业。虽然这个新兴行业历史尚不足十年，但每一个行业都是一个江湖，有江湖的地方就有刀光剑影。短短数年，矿工们已经经历了两次由天到地的剧烈周期，江湖血洗、踩坑无数，终于等到了又一次牛市。
Although less than a decade has passed since the emergence of this new industry, every industry is a river, with swords and swords everywhere. In just a few years, miners have gone through two intense cycles from the sky to the ground.
截至3月12日，比特币价格涨破58000美元/枚，逼近上个月创下的纪录高位，从2020年3月12日的低点到今天，比特币在一年内翻了13倍，而按照上一轮牛市的规律，圈内人相信，这还远不是顶点。
By 12 March, the price of Bitcoin had risen by $58,000, reaching a record high in the last month, a 13-fold increase in bitcoin in one year from its low point on 12 March 2020 to today, and, according to the previous round of cattle, the inner circle believed that it was far from the top.
伴随比特币牛市，矿业在沉寂了两三年之后，再次进入了投资者和公众的视线，随之而来的是矿机的疯涨和疯抢。以2020年2月比特大陆发行最新旗舰机型s19矿机为例，从最初的1.5万元/台一路涨至6万元/台，而作为最新型号，它的涨幅还是最小的。即便如此，至今仍是一机难求，据21世纪经济报道记者了解，各大厂商六个月以内的期货已经售罄，不少期货订单已经排到了明年2月。
Along with the city of Bitcoin, after two or three years of silence, the mining industry has again entered the eyes of investors and the public, followed by the booming and ravaging of mining machines. For example, in February 2020, the latest flagship s19 miner was launched on the continent of Bitland, rising from $15,000 to $60,000, while, as the latest, it has the smallest increase.
圈内人说，虚拟币挖矿或许已经过了暴富时代，但依然是好的投资资产。或许是印证这一观点，大机构、大企业近期纷纷入场，纵然外界仍有质疑，但不可否认，虚拟币挖矿正在迅速走向规模化，时有造富神话。
According to insiders, virtual currency mining may have passed the era of richness, but it is still a good investment asset. Perhaps, in support of this view, large institutions and firms have recently entered the market and, even though there are still questions, it is undeniable that virtual currency mining is fast on its scale, sometimes with myths of wealth.
矿工迭代：挖矿不再是普通人的游戏
Miner turns out to be a game where diggers are no longer ordinary people
一位矿工对21世纪经济报道记者解释了挖矿，因为区块平均每10分钟被挖出，挖矿是每十分钟举办一次的“饥饿游戏”，全世界的矿工都会参与，而游戏的奖品就是比特币。
A miner explained to a 21st century economic reporter that mining was being dug up every 10 minutes, and that mining was a game of hunger that was held every 10 minutes, with the participation of miners from all over the world, and the prize for the game was Bitcoin.
而所谓的挖矿算法，其实就是猜数字的方法，方法是固定而简单的，所以没什么改进空间。赢得游戏的方法只有一个，就是寻找在单位时间内能执行最多次算法的硬件。另外，1+1=2，谁拥有这样的硬件数量最多，谁就最有可能赢得游戏。所以整个比特币的挖矿史其实就是挖矿硬件的迭代史。
And the so-called mining algorithm is actually a way to guess numbers, which is fixed and simple, so there is little room for improvement. The only way to win a game is to find hardware that can perform the most numerous algorithms in a unit time. And, 1+1 = 2, who owns the largest number of hardware, is most likely to win the game. So the entire history of mining by bitcoin is actually an iterative history of mining hardware.
据说，曾经那个大家用普通电脑CPU在家挖矿的年代被称为创世年代，到2010年，有人发现AMD出产的GPU芯片有一个特定的计算部件，可以加速猜数字的关键步骤，于是多个GPU组装成的“GPU矿机”迅速淘汰了普通电脑矿机。
It is said that the time when common computer CPUs were used to mine at home was known as the age of creation, that by 2010 it had been discovered that the AMD-produced GPU chip had a specific computing component that could accelerate the crucial step of guessing the numbers, and that the “GPU miners” assembled by the GPU had quickly phased out the common computer miners.
到2011年年末，FPGA矿机出现，效率大幅提升，并出现了第一个矿场Eligius。但当年的矿场还只处于萌芽期，矿工依然主要指的是全世界默默挖矿的个人电脑。到现在主流的ASIC芯片机已经是第四代矿机，比起FPGA，ASIC芯片牺牲了灵活性，造出来就是为了猜数字挖矿，所以效率再次有了质的飞跃。
By the end of 2011, the FPGA mine had emerged, with a significant increase in efficiency, and the first mine, Eligius. But the mine was still in its infancy, and miners still referred mainly to the world’s silent mining of personal computers.
有矿工做了几类矿机的量化比较，如果CPU的挖矿速度是1，GPU的速度就是10，FPGA矿机的速度虽然只是8，但消耗的电能比GPU小40倍，而ASIC的挖矿速度是2000，功耗则与GPU相当。所以ASIC芯片一问世，就迅速将其他三类矿机赶出了市场。
There are miners who make quantitative comparisons of several types of miners, and if CPU digs at 1 and GPU at 10, and the FPGA mine at only 8, it consumes 40 times less electricity than the GPU, while ASIC digs at 2000 and at the same rate as the GPU. So, as soon as the ACIS chip comes out, the other three types of mine are quickly driven out of the market.
从矿业发展史来看，到2014年左右，比特币的矿业领域，已经没有了除矿场和矿池之外的个人矿工的生存空间，而前十大矿池的集中程度也已经基本盖棺确定，可以说在确保了比特币网络安全的情况下，实现了相当高程度的中心化。很多人们熟悉的行业明星企业和企业主，比如蚂蚁矿池、鱼池、莱比特、国池等团体，以及背后的吴忌寒、江卓尔、七彩神鱼等人，就在这一时期出现。
From the history of mining development, by around 2014, there was no room for individual miners in the mining sector other than mines and ponds, and the concentration of the top 10 ponds has been largely determined, and it can be said that a considerable degree of centralization has been achieved in the context of ensuring the safety of the Bitcoin network. The period was marked by a number of well-known industry star companies and business owners, such as ant ponds, fish ponds, Lebitts, national ponds, and the rest of the rest, such as Wu Xiaoqiao, Jiang Zhor, the Seven Colors, and others.
莱比特矿池创始人江卓尔对21世纪经济报道记者回忆，2013年底，计算机专业出身的他在做游戏业务时，遇到了跨境收款的问题，在寻找解决方案时了解到了比特币：“2013年底正是比特币一波大牛市的顶部，我判断其中存在泡沫，决定不会短时间内参与交易，但当时挖矿是有一定收益的，所以我自己组装了两台显卡矿机，在家里自己挖矿，慢慢积累矿机和比特币的数量，逐渐把业务做大。”
The founder of Lebitt's pond, Jiang Trell, recalled to the 21st century economic reporter that, at the end of 2013, computer professionals encountered cross-border collection problems in their play business and learned about Bitcoin in their search for solutions: “It was at the top of a wave of cattle in Bitcoin at the end of 2013 that I decided that there was a bubble in it and that it would not be involved in the trade in a short time, but there was some benefit from mining, so I had assembled two card-based miners to mine at home, slowly building up the number of miners and bitcoin, gradually making the business bigger.”
江卓尔指出，购买矿机需要付出成本，例如现在S19矿机的价格6万元，但一旦购买了矿机，就相当于获得了在未来5-10年打折购买比特币的机会。例如用S19矿机挖矿，一天只要付出26元的电费，就可以挖到价值200元的比特币，大部分矿机的静态回本周期在200-300天。相较于囤币或炒币，挖矿对很多人来说是风险系数更低的投资手段。这也导致了矿机的行情火爆。
Jiangchallor pointed out that the cost of purchasing a mine machine, such as the current S19 mine price of $60,000, would be equivalent to the opportunity to buy bitcoin on a discount over the next 5 to 10 years. For example, digging a mine with a S19 mine would cost just $26 a day to dig up $200 in bitcoins, most of which would have a static return cycle of 200 to 300 days.
江卓尔解释称，虽然上一轮周期，比特币经历过从1300元大涨100倍至13万元的巨牛行情，但很少有人真的赚了100倍。对大多数人来说，买币最大的难度在于囤不住，谁也不能预知行情的顶点在哪里以及什么时候到来，而一旦没能成功逃顶，熊市比特币基本要跌掉80-90%，因此绝大部分人涨30%~50%就忍不住卖了，涨三五倍还能拿住的凤毛麟角，能拿住涨100倍比特币的，千中无一，甚至大部分人还会因为使用高杠杆炒币，在周期波动中亏损。
Jiangchael explained that, while Bitcoin experienced a 100-to-130,000-dollar mega-cow boom in the last cycle, few actually made a 100-fold gain. For most people, the greatest difficulty in buying a coin is that it cannot be hoarded, that no one can predict where and when the peak of it will come, and that once it fails, the Bear City Bitcoin will fall by 80-90 per cent, so that the vast majority of people will increase by 30-50 per cent, three-to-five times more and take 100-fold bitcoins, none of them, and even most of them will lose in cyclical swings because of the use of high leverage.
“但挖矿就没有这个问题，在牛市，矿机是一只会下金蛋的鹅，大部分人都不会卖掉一只会下金蛋的鹅，因此大部分矿工都能一直挖完整个牛市，而不像买比特币那样，涨了几倍就忍不住卖掉。买比特币屯币是一个逆人性过程，而挖矿是一个顺人性过程。并且由于挖矿持续时间长，例如上一轮牛市2016年的S9矿机，到现在挖了5年了，还在挖，每台每天净收入有20元，因此在一台矿机的整个生命周期，会碰到不止一轮牛市，因此可以说历史上真正在挖矿的矿工都是盈利的。”江卓尔表示。
“But there is no problem with mining. In the cattle market, where the mine is a goose with a gold egg, most people don't sell a goose with a gold egg, so most miners can dig up a whole cow market without being able to sell it several times as much as they buy bitcoin. Buying bitcoin is an antihuman process, while mining is a human process.
但江卓尔直言，挖矿目前的投资门槛很高，并且会越来越高。早期还存在家庭矿工，一两台矿机在家就可以挖矿，但随着整个行业快速的规模化发展，矿业商业模式已经发生了巨大的变化。仅以电费一项来说，由于新疆电力远比家庭电费便宜，因此同一台矿机，在新疆矿场挖价值10元的比特币要交5元电费，在家挖矿挖10元的比特币要就交10元电费，这就让家庭矿工几乎没有生存空间。
But Jiangchallor has said that the current investment threshold for mining is high and will grow higher. There were early family miners, and one or two miners could dig at home, but the mining business model has changed dramatically with the rapid scale of the industry. In terms of electricity alone, because Xinjiang power is much cheaper than household electricity, the same miner pays $5 for digging at the Xinjiang mine, and $10 for digging at home, leaving domestic miners with little room for survival.
据21世纪经济报道记者了解，以2018年牛市时上一代神机蚂蚁矿机S9来说，价格破万，当时想要挖到比特币，已经至少要上百台S9日夜不停的运转，现在的挖矿难度只会更大。
According to the 21st Century economic reporter, the price of the machine S9 of the first generation of ants in the cattle market in 2018, when trying to dig up bitcoin, had to run around at least 100 S9 overnights, making mining even more difficult.
“目前的主流是做几万、乃至几十万千万时的大型矿场，矿场里有几万台矿机，当然规模很大的矿场里面通常不只有一家矿工，很多都是像我这样，专门大规模买矿机挖矿的矿工，矿场会提供托管服务。但这对散户依然很不友好，如果你是只有几台，几十台矿机，想放在矿场，矿场大概率不会理你。所以有些平台会提供托管服务，但这种散户玩家不是矿业的主流，一个十万台矿机的大矿工，能顶1万个10台矿机的小矿工，市场上大部分矿机都是大矿工持有。并且自从比特币被美国资本市场追捧以来，九城等多家美国上市公司，在市场上不计代价地收购比特币矿机，使得矿机进一步被大资金、大机构所控制，散户很难再参与挖矿。”江卓尔称。
“The current mainstream is tens of thousands of, if not hundreds of millions of, large-scale mining sites, where there are tens of thousands of miners, and of course not only one miner, many of them like me, who specializes in large-scale mining. But this is still unfriendly to the locals, and if you are only a few, dozens of miners, the mine will probably not be at your disposal. So there are platforms that provide hosting services, but this is not the main miner, a large miner of 100,000 miners, a small miner with a capacity of up to 10,000 10 miners, and most of the miners in the market are owned by large miners.
江卓尔告诉记者，比特币每四年的产出减半，会令比特币的供需出现巨大波动，所以比特币的市场也会呈现出相对稳定预期的周期性行情。按照上一轮牛市经验，从1万美元到5万美元这个涨幅阶段中，存在两次以上40%的大跌，这一次只有2次，且跌幅在20%左右，相对于上一轮牛市涨的很“稳”。原因是美国的主流大机构、大资金开始进场，例如特斯拉就购买了15亿美元的比特币，美图的蔡文胜也购买了4000万美元的比特币，MicroStrategy公司累计买入了价值40亿美元的比特币，市场巨头灰度基金累计买入了65万枚，价值380亿美元的比特币，和上百亿美元的ETH以太坊、BCH比特币现金等其他虚拟币。
Jiangchallor told reporters that halving the output of Bitcoin every four years would cause significant fluctuations in the supply and demand of Bitcoin, so that the market in Bitcoin would show a relatively stable cyclical pattern. According to the previous cattle market experience, there had been two or more 40% drops between US$ 10,000 and US$ 50,000 in the build-up period, only two times in this time, and a drop of about 20%, which was “stable” in relation to the previous round of cattle. The reason was that mainstream agencies and large funds in the United States, such as Tesla, had bought US$ 1.5 billion in bitcoins, the United States country's Cheivin victory had purchased US$ 40 million in bitcoins, MicroStrategy had accumulated US$ 4 billion in bitcoins, the market's giant Grey Fund had accumulated $650,000 in bitcoins, US$ 380 million in bitcoins, and other virtual currencies, such as the US dollar in ETH, BCHbit cash.
这些还只是公开持仓的，水面下没有公开持仓的可能还有很多。他们是按照大宗商品和中长期资产配置比特币。虽然这些机构只拿出很小的头寸配置比特币，但因体量巨大，远不是之前币圈的玩家资金体量所能比拟。哪怕币圈玩家想要投机，但大机构入场并长线持有，使得币价波动变得更小。这会导致市场进一步出清那些追涨杀跌的小玩家，比特币和挖矿都在去散户化。
These are just open storage, and there are many possibilities that there will be no open storage under the water. They are assigned bitcoin based on large commodities and medium- and long-term assets.
在江卓尔看来，挖矿的未来是一种大工业生产，就像传统煤矿，虽然短期内会存在小煤窑，但未来肯定是这种大规模集成化的大玩家在参与。
In Jiangchallor's view, the future of mining is a large industrial production, like traditional coal mines, and although small kilns will exist in the short term, the future will certainly involve such large-scale integrated players.
02
矿场生意经：抢滩资源点
Mine business history: beach grabs
比特小鹿COO叶杰杰在接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时表示，目前中国仍是比特币挖矿产业的中心，去年全球9.6 GW挖矿电力中50%以上位于中国，第二位美国占大约14%。
In an interview with the 21st Century Economic Reporter, Koo Jaejie, a deer-bit, said that China was still at the centre of the Bitcoin mining industry, with more than 50 per cent of the global 9.6 GW mining power being located in China last year and the second United States accounting for about 14 per cent.
在比特币算力话语权的竞争中，中国独占鳌头得益于行业快速的产业化，矿场的快速发展功不可没。据21世纪经济报道记者了解，目前国内矿场不少于100家。
In the competition for bitcoin numeracy, China’s monopoly has benefited from the rapid industrialization of the industry, and the rapid development of the mines has been successful. According to the 21st century economic reporters, there are currently no fewer than 100 mines in the country.
显卡矿机头部企业熊猫矿机联合创始人杨笑在接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时表示，作为国内较早一批用公司方式运营矿场，并较早在四川、内蒙布局矿场的企业，熊猫矿机目前已有在线矿场8家，在建矿场1家。
In an interview with the 21st Century Economics Reporter, Yang, the founder of the CVM head company Panda Miner, laughed that, as an earlier group of companies operating mines in the country and in the Sichuan and Inner Monburet mines, panda machines now have eight online mines and one is in the process of building them.
杨笑指出，矿场可以理解为虚拟币挖矿产业的基础设施建设。简单一点来说，矿场就是土版IDC（互联网数据中心，Internet Data Center，简称IDC），整个模型和IDC类似，但建设标准相对IDC会低一些。
Yang laughs and says that the mines can be understood as building infrastructure for the virtual currency mining industry. In short, the mines are earth-based IDCs (Internet Data Center, Internet Data Center, IDC), the whole model is similar to IDCs, but construction standards are lower than IDCs.
矿场本身的商业模型比较简单，一是自有挖矿，矿场主自己也会购买设备投放挖矿；二是为用户提供托管服务，盈利模式就是赚取电费价差。因为收益来自电费价差，基本不受币价影响，所以除非遇到类似去年312事件（2020年3月12日，比特币在短短20小时内从8000美元暴跌到3800美元，被币圈称作312事件）时的极端行情，可能导致部分矿机关机，若矿场内还有最新的机器，便能抵抗币价暴跌的风险。若拥有价格较低的电力资源，老旧的机器也不会关机，基本不会影响矿场运行。所以除了不可抗的自然因素和政策影响，一般矿场整体的盈利模式较为稳健，正常情况下回本周期在一年半到两年。
The commercial model of the mine itself is relatively simple: the owner of the mine itself buys equipment for mining; the owner of the mine itself buys equipment for mining; and the user hosting service, the profit model is the low cost of earning electricity. Because the revenues are derived from poor electricity prices and are largely free from currency prices, unless there is a similar 312 incident last year (on 12 March 2020, Bitcoin plunged from $8,000 to $3,800 in less than 20 hours, known as the 312 incident), the extreme behaviour of the mine owner could lead to some mining machines that, if there were more recent machines in the mine, could resist the risk of falling prices.
据杨笑介绍，矿场一般按照每小时用电量的标准来计算，每1万千瓦时的矿场初期建设费用在500-1000万人民币，区间跨度较大主要是受矿场本身条件的影响，比如高压、弱电部分需不需要建。按此计算标准，如果是数十万千瓦时的大矿场，投资量也在十亿级。
According to Yang’s laughter, the initial construction cost of a mine is RMB 5-10 million per 10,000 kilowatt-hours, calculated on the basis of electricity per hour, and the large inter-district spread is largely influenced by the conditions of the mine itself, such as the high-voltage, weak parts of electricity that need not be built. On this basis, investments are also at a billion-degree level in the case of a large mine of hundreds of thousands of kilowatt-hours.
但对于矿场建设运营的技术难度，杨笑指出，技术层面壁垒不强，难的是如何选址、评估，以及后期如何保证稳定的电力供应和可持续运营。
However, with regard to technical difficulties in the construction and operation of mines, Yang laughed that technical barriers were not strong and that it was difficult to locate, assess and, later, ensure a stable electricity supply and sustainable operation.
据21世纪经济报道记者了解，自挖矿场收益=生产的比特币×币价-矿机成本-电费-维护费及人工成本-矿场折旧费，虽然矿机昂贵，但对大型矿场而言，矿机并不是最重要的开支，挖矿的最大成本是电费。若是将自有矿场租赁给其他人挖矿，其矿场收益=租赁费-电费成本-建设费及人工成本。所以选择电费洼地是矿场收益的重要决定因素。
According to 21st Century Economic Reporters, the mine's proceeds = the price of bitcoin produced - mine costs - electricity - maintenance costs and labour costs - depreciation of the mine, although expensive, are not the most important expense for large mines, and the biggest cost of mining is electricity. If the mine is leased to others, the mine's profits = rental costs – electricity costs – construction costs and labour costs.
杨笑表示，因为矿场要建在电费洼地，以四川为例，四川通常使用水电矿场，距离水电站较近，夏天丰水期遇到泥石流等灾害的风险很高。所以评估、选择资源点的能力很重要。“优质的资源点对矿场来说是稀缺资源，虽说电费洼地相对清晰，主要集中在西北和西南地区，但找准那个真正合适建矿场的点需要花费很多功夫。我们团队一直实行末位淘汰制，有一个专门的矿场运营团队全年在全球范围内寻找合适的资源点，评估后合适就会拿下，再去匹配后端用电的需求量，如果需要增量就设新点，如果电量还有富余就末位淘汰，启用新点，不断对矿场进行更新迭代。”他指出。
Yang laughs at the fact that, in the case of Sichuan, where the mines are built at a cost of electricity, it is common for Sichuan to use a hydroelectric site closer to a hydroelectric station, and the risk of disasters such as mudslides during summer periods is high. The ability to assess and select resource points is important. “High-quality resource points are scarce resources for the mines, although electricity is relatively clear and concentrated in the north-west and south-west regions, but it takes a lot of effort to find a site that is truly suitable for a mine. Our team has been implementing a terminal phase-out system, with a dedicated mine operation team looking for a suitable resource point on a global scale throughout the year, which will then be assessed as appropriate to match the demand for back-end electricity, setting up new points if there is a need to increase, phasing out the end point if there is more power, launching new sites, and constantly updating the mines.” He notes.
对于矿场，目前国内政策尚不算明朗，这是创新产物还是落后产能，也存在争议。2月25日，内蒙古发改委官网发文称，为了加快淘汰化解落后和过剩产能，拟全面清理关停虚拟货币挖矿项目，2021年4月底前全部退出。这一政策推出后，在币圈引起不小的讨论，对部分矿场建在内蒙的中小矿场来说，也会造成一定影响。
On February 25, the Inner Mongolia Development and Change Commission (NAMRC) wrote that, in order to accelerate the phase-out of backward and excess capacity, it was proposed to shut down the virtual currency mining project and to withdraw from it until the end of April 2021. With the introduction of this policy, there was much debate in the currency circles, which could also have an impact on small and medium-sized mines built in some of the mines.
但对头部矿场来说，对地方政策的变化早有准备，近年已陆续将矿场搬离内蒙古。在不少矿工看来，对于矿场，政策并没有一杆子打死，而是存在差异性，新疆和四川目前对于矿业态度越来越明朗。以四川为例，去年建立了水电消纳示范区，鼓励高用电行业在丰水期消纳多余的水电。这也给了矿场和矿工更多信心。
In the case of head mines, however, changes in local policies have been prepared, and in recent years the mines have been moved away from Inner Mongolia. In the view of many miners, policies have not been beaten to death, but have been different, and Xinjiang and Sichuan are now becoming increasingly clear about mining.
杨笑指出，从矿场的经营来看，其经营也在朝规模化、专业化、服务化发展，从最早自己挖矿，到吸引客户把矿机放到自己的矿场，不断滚动扩大规模。近年开始逐渐和新进场的外部资金合作，加速了规模的扩大。目前自有资金和外部资金的比例已经在3：7，未来外部资金占比或将进一步提高。
Yang laughs at the operation of the mine, which is also growing in size, specialization, and service, from the earliest mining to attracting customers to put their machines in their own mines, and is expanding on a rolling basis. In recent years, gradual and new external financial cooperation has accelerated the expansion. The ratio of self-financing to external funding is now at 3:7 and the ratio of external funding will likely increase further in the future.
此外，矿场也在考虑全球化的布局和转移。据21世纪经济报道记者了解，中亚和北美是目前矿业投资者比较看好的地区。
In addition, mining sites are considering the layout and transfer of globalization. According to 21st Century economic reporters, Central Asia and North America are currently the preferred areas for mining investors.
叶杰杰指出，目前碳中和的目标和部分地方政府的能控规定对行业前景本身影响不大，但会促使更多挖矿设备将向四川、云南转移，及一定程度加速中国矿业转移出海的趋势。
Ye Jieji noted that the current carbon-neutral targets and the ability of some local governments to regulate have little impact on industry prospects per se, but that this could lead to an increase in the transfer of mining equipment to Sichuan and Yunnan and, to some extent, to an acceleration of the movement of Chinese mining out of the sea.
他指出，比特币矿业虽然能耗巨大，但现今的电力系统在能源合理利用上仍然有很大的提升空间。而比特币矿业只有两个要求，电和网。基本不受时间和地点的限制，恰恰可以合理利用那些本已经被浪费的电力，为一些落后地区提供一定的工作岗位和税收。矿业目前谈不上饱和，随着比特币市值的提高，所能容纳的矿业规模也在显著提升。但目前新的企业或投资人会比较难进入，主要由于市场上矿机缺货严重，一机难求。
He pointed out that while the Bitcoin mining industry is energy-intensive, today’s electricity system still has a great deal of room for improvement in the rational use of energy. The Bitcoin mining industry has only two requirements, electricity and grids.
矿机厂商：暴涨暴跌下的现金流隐忧
miner: > : . >........................................................................................................
2月底，21世纪经济报道记者探访了深圳华强北赛格电子广场，这一2017-2018年曾经享誉全球的矿机市场在三年后再度迎来牛市时，却不复曾经的热闹。
At the end of February, the 21st Century Economic Reporter visited Shenzhen Huaqiang /span'span' North Saigue Electronic Square, which reappeared in three years from 2017 to 2018, but did not return to the excavation of the market.
几家门店矿机牌面仍在，但已人去店空。还有两三家矿机商家装潢更似茶室，只是不见销售人员。一家开门营业的矿机经销商销售人员表示，目前整个商场总共约有六七家经销矿机，其中两三家经营ipfs，其他经营比特币和以太坊矿机，去年下半年以来，大家的生意明显回暖，但目前线下会来商场淘货的购买者很少，基本都是微信或线上下单。
There are still a number of shops, but they are empty. There are two or three miners who dress up as tea houses, except for salesmen. According to one open-door dealer, there are currently about six or seven dealers in the mall as a whole, two or three of whom run ipfs, other ones run bitcoin and Ether, and since the second half of last year, the business has apparently warmed up, but there are very few buyers who come to the mall to pick up their goods, mostly by letter or line.
虽然线下购物难觅行情火爆，但矿机厂商纷纷反馈现货已是一机难求。
Although offline shopping is difficult to find, there is a lot of feedback from miners on the spot.
杨笑告诉记者，目前的虚拟币挖矿主要是两个币种，比特币和以太坊。比特币矿机主要用ASIC芯片挖矿，以太坊主要用显卡挖矿。所以矿机的硬件赛道相对比较简单，和传统制造业很类似，只是定价模型和其他行业不太一样。
Yang laughed and told reporters that the current virtual currency mining is mainly two currencies, Bitcoin and Etheria. The Bitcoin miner digs mostly with an ASIC chip, and the pit digs mostly with a visible card. So the machine's hardware track is relatively simple, and traditional manufacturing is similar, but price-fixing models are not the same as other industries.
“矿机本质不是消费品，而是有投资品的性质，所以综合定价和用户的购买预期可能会存在差异。我们会基于矿机的回本周期去反推定价，比特币矿机会把机器的回本周期控制在10个月到1年，以太坊矿机的回本周期会比较短，一般在4-6个月。因为币价的涨幅剧烈，导致矿工挖矿的净收益上涨，要控制回本周期相对稳定，矿机价格也会成数倍增长。而这部分溢价的红利，主要是被元件厂商、矿机厂商和经销商获得。”杨笑称。
“The mining machine is not in the nature of consumer goods, but is in the nature of an investment product, so there may be a difference between the combined pricing and the user’s expectation of purchasing. We will counter-presuming it on the basis of the re-entry cycle of the mine, where the Bitcoin mine opportunity controls the machine’s return cycle from 10 months to 1 year, and the re-entry cycle of the pit machine will be shorter, typically from 4 to 6 months. Because of the sharp increase in currency prices, the net return from mining by miners will rise, and the price of the mine will increase several times in order to control the relative stability of the re-entry cycle.
但币价的剧烈波动，也给矿机厂商带来了难以预料的现金流压力。
However, the volatility of currency prices has also placed unforeseeable cash flow pressure on miners.
杨笑指出，无论是上市还是没上市的矿机厂商，现金流不稳定性在行业内普遍存在。在目前行情极端好的情况下，企业现金流肯定非常健康，但是因为行情和周期存在滞后性，无论厂商和台积电下单，还是像我们和NVIDIA和AMD采买颗粒（即显存颗粒，是显存的物理存储组成单元），都要用2-3个月的时间去对应备料，生产周期至少4个月。如果在这个周期内遇到行情下跌，资金已经用于备料，又遇到机器滞销，现金流就会被极速扭转。
Yang laughs at the fact that cash flow volatility is prevalent in the industry, whether on the market or on the unlisted market. In the current situation, the business cash flow is certainly healthy, but because of the delays in the flow and cycle, whether we buy particles (i.e., visible particles, a visible physical storage unit) or not, as we do with NVIDIA and AMD, it takes two to three months to match the material, with a production cycle of at least four months. If there is a decline in the cycle, money is used for the preparation and machine sales.
作为矿机厂商中唯一的上市公司，嘉楠科技披露的2020年第三季度财报显示其营收为1.63亿人民币，同比下降75.7%，归属于嘉楠科技股东的净亏损为8480万元，而2019年同期为净利润9460万元。熊市行情对厂商的冲击可见一斑，如何抵御周期波动，增强抗风险能力，是这个行业面临的共性问题。
As the only listed company among the miners, the third quarter of 2020 Kanaa Tech disclosed a revenue of RMB 163 million, a 75.7 per cent decline in the same year, and a net loss of RMB 84.8 million attributable to Kanaa’s technology shareholders, compared with a net profit of RMB 94.6 million in the same period in 2019. The impact of the Bear City situation on the company’s producers is clear, how to withstand cycle fluctuations and increase its resilience to risks is a common problem facing the industry.
对此，杨笑表示，主要有两点应对。一是在综合商业决策中，销售计划和生产计划需要合理制定，避免长期客户在极端行情下销量出现巨幅波动，通过计划的调整尽量减少波动。
One is that sales and production plans need to be rationally formulated in integrated business decisions to avoid excessive fluctuations in sales by long-term customers in extreme business situations and to minimize volatility through planned adjustments.
二是运用好金融衍生品，近两年虚拟币行业内金融衍生品已经越来越健全，比如借贷、通过期权套保等为矿机和矿业的投资行为提供了更多投资保障。
The second is the use of good financial derivatives, which have become more and more robust in the virtual currency sector over the past two years, such as lending, the adoption of options to secure more investment in mining machines and mining.
即便行业存在周期性波动，此轮矿机厂商和矿机的利好已经是板上钉钉。
Even in the case of cyclical fluctuations in the industry, the profitability of this wheeler and miner is already high.
江卓尔认为今年大概率是矿机盈利超过比特币涨幅的一年。因为芯片短缺，导致2020~2021年比特币挖矿算力增幅很小，如果算力一直维持不变，那一台矿机每天挖多少币是固定的。上一轮上涨是币价和算力同步上涨，所以一台矿机每天产出是相对稳定的。但这一轮算力上涨没有币价快，就导致每TiB算力能挖出的比特币价值增长的更快，这也是这一轮矿机价格大幅上升的原因。
Jiangchallor believes that this year’s likely rate of profit for miners is one of more than a bitcoin increase. The shortage of chips led to a small increase in bitcoin mining capacity from 2020 to 2021, which, if constant, would be fixed.
比如最新的s19矿机涨幅最小，价格也从15000涨到现在的6万左右，翻了4倍之多。如果是功耗高的老矿机，因为本身其电费占比较高，假设之前挖10元比特币要交8元电费，只产出2元钱，但币价翻了五倍，算力没怎么涨，就意味着8元电费可以挖50元比特币，产出了42元，产出翻了20倍。这也导致老矿机涨幅更大。
For example, the latest s19 mine has seen the smallest increase, and the price has risen fourfold, from 15,000 to about 60,000 today. In the case of an old mine with a high capacity, because of its own high electricity cost, it is assumed that the 10 bitcoins would have cost eight dollars, but only two dollars, but the value of the currency has doubled, and not much more, which means that eight dollars would cost 50 bitcoins, yield 42 dollars, and produce 20 times more. This has led to a larger increase in the output of the older miner.
云算力：普通人挖矿的入场券？
Cloud Calculus: A ticket for ordinary people to dig?
随着币值水涨船高，想要挖矿分一杯羹的圈外人越来越多。但随着挖矿越来越高的门槛，普通投资者只能望洋兴叹。
As the value of the currency rises, there are more and more outsiders who want to dig for a piece of mine. But as the threshold of mining grows higher, ordinary investors can only look forward to the boom.
于是，近年来一种名为“云算力”的矿业产品应运而生并迅速推广。
As a result, in recent years, a mining product called cloud computing has emerged and spread rapidly.
据21世纪经济报道记者了解，所谓“云算力”，即用户通过平台购买云算力合约，租赁算力挖矿，定时获取收益。其最核心的优势就是简化流程，降低入场门槛。用户无需购买昂贵的矿机、挑选矿场，也无需自己24小时进行运营维护。合约结束后，无需处理机器、场地等，退出更灵活。
According to 21st Century Economic Reporters, the so-called “cloud computing” means that users buy cloud computing contracts through platforms, rent them and dig regularly. Its most central advantage is to simplify the process and lower the entry threshold. Users do not need to buy expensive machines, select mines, or operate 24-hour maintenance.
据统计，目前包括火币矿池、比特小鹿、算力方在内，全球云算力平台已经超过50余家，按照近期币价折算，其收益率高者可达100%。
At present, according to statistics, more than 50 global cloud computing platforms, including a gun-money pond, a bit of deer and arithmetic, can yield a high rate of 100 per cent at recent currency prices.
圈内人称云算力可以看做挖矿算力的证券化，但这种新产品的出现不可否认也暗含风险。
In the circle, it is claimed that cloud computing can be seen as securitization of mining computing, but the emergence of this new product is undeniable and entails risks.
比特小鹿COO叶杰杰告诉21世纪经济报道记者，云算力确实显著降低了普通人进入比特币挖矿行业的门槛。而其风险主要来源两方面，比特币价格的波动和服务商的可靠性。但在他看来也有风控手段，一是普通用户可以在挖出比特币后就售出进行价格波动风险的控制，二是要考察靠谱服务商。从算力服务商可靠度来讲的话，要从平台的矿场规模实力，挖矿真实性，经营持续性等综合分析考虑。
But, in his view, there is also wind control that ordinary users can sell bitcoins to control the risk of price fluctuations, and also to look at spectrographic service providers. In terms of the reliability of arithmetic service providers, a combination of platform size, true mining, business continuity, etc.
对于云算力，江卓尔认为比较复杂，存在一定风险。云算力模式看起来很像理财，且存在一些乱相，很难做到合规。假设云算力平台诚信经营，确实买了矿机在挖矿，在牛市时大概率没问题，但当熊市来临时，投资者未必愿意承担巨大波动所造成的亏损。而因为云算力类模式看起来像理财，如果有大量亏损散户举报，可能就面临着经济罪名。另一种就是不诚信经营，平台宣称卖算力其实并没有买矿机，因为买矿机经营很麻烦，有些平台可能就是庞氏骗局。所以投资者如果要选择云算力产品，一定要认清风险、谨慎投资。
Assumptions that cloud computing platforms do operate in good faith, buying mining machines is probably not a problem in the cattle market, but when bears come on a temporary basis, investors may not be willing to bear the losses caused by large fluctuations. Because cloud computing models look like money management, they may face economic charges if there are large numbers of losses and losses reported.
金融衍生品：对冲还是赌局
云算力之外，币圈金融衍生品的出现，也说不清是天使还是魔鬼。
Beyond cloud computing, the emergence of financial derivatives in the currency circle is unclear as to whether it is an angel or a demon.
2020年1月，芝加哥商品交易所（CME）宣布其已获得必要的监管批准，推出了其新的比特币（BTC）期货期权，比特币期货开始在主流交易所登陆。此外，杠杆、合约、ETF等其他金融衍生品也在赋予虚拟货币更多金融属性。
In January 2020, the Chicago Commodity Exchange (CME) announced that it had obtained the necessary regulatory approval, introduced its new Bitcoin (BTC) futures options, and started to land on the mainstream. In addition, other financial derivatives, such as leverage, contracts, and ETFs, are giving the virtual currency more financial attributes.
应用金融衍生品，也是矿工们对抗风险的常用手段。江卓尔举例指出，“如果有10万元，你可以买一台最好的矿机，或者两台中等矿机，我的选择是第三种，买一台最好的矿机，再将矿机拿去抵押借款，再买一台最好的矿机。虽然银行等金融机构不认可比特币和矿机，但币圈内有一些平台很乐意做这样的抵押借贷服务，并且平台也有比较合理的风控，贷款周期在3-6个月，利息根据资质在8%-15%年化不等。”
The use of financial derivatives is also a common tool for miners to counter risk. Jiangchael, for example, states: “If there is $100,000, you can buy the best miner, or two medium miners, and I choose a third, buy the best miner, then mortgage the miner, and then buy the best miner. Although financial institutions, such as banks, do not approve bitcoin and mine machines, there are platforms within the currency circle that are willing to do such mortgage lending services, and the platform has a more rational style, with loan cycles ranging from 8 to 15% annualized depending on their qualifications.”
这种利息水平并不算低，但在牛市中挖矿收益巨大，例如2020年11月借款买了矿机，到现在4个月资金利息成本3%-5%，换回矿机涨价4-6倍的收益，这还没算上期间的挖矿收益，足够划算了。
This level of interest is not low, but the profits from mining in the cattle market are significant, such as the borrowing of a miner in November 2020, the 3 to 5 per cent interest cost of the money in four months and the four-to-six-fold increase in the value of the miner, which has not yet been fully accounted for in the period.
但不可否认，金融衍生品的快速发展也让不少投资者交付了沉重的学费。
However, it is undeniable that the rapid development of financial derivatives has also resulted in heavy school fees being paid by a number of investors.
杨笑指出，对待金融衍生品，核心还是在于了解清楚各个工具背后的机制到底是什么，其次是对行情进行准确的判断，完成好工具的使用和策略的执行，最终保证自己有一个更加可持续的现金流。传统金融衍生品诞生之初更多也是做风险的对冲，但投机始终存在，最终形成了风险对冲者和投机者之间的博弈。
Yang laughs at financial derivatives, saying that the core is to understand exactly what the mechanisms behind the instruments are, and then to make accurate judgements about behaviour, to complete the use of good tools and the implementation of strategies, and ultimately to ensure a more sustainable cash flow. While traditional financial derivatives were born with more risk-taking hedges, speculation persisted, ultimately creating a game between risk hedgers and speculators.
杨笑进一步表示，但币圈的金融衍生品目前存在一些相对不成熟的形态，以期货为例，正常是现货影响期货价格，但在币圈形成了倒挂，期货反过去影响了现货的价格。这中间有两重原因，一是杠杆倍数太大，二是获得杠杆的门槛太低，导致在币圈交易内的搏杀行为非常夸张，一天完成多空双爆很正常。
Yang laughs further, but the financial derivatives of the currency ring are currently in some relatively immature form, so that, for example, spot prices are normally affected by spot prices, but in the currency circles they are inverted, and futures are inversely affected by spot prices. There are two reasons for this, one because the leverage multiplier is too large, the other because the threshold for obtaining leverage is too low, leading to an exaggeration in the fight in currency circles, and it is normal to do more than two blasts a day.
“我认为金融延伸品本身的赛道还需要继续发展，不能因为目前存在的种种投机事件因噎废食。尤其对一些大型机构而言，需要通过衍生品的方式对企业进行套保保护，但对中小投资者和投机者，在进入这个赛道前需要意识到其存在的巨大风险。尽量避免盲目投资，虽然虚拟货币是一个新兴的领域，但未来也需要和规划监管和投资者教育。”杨笑表示。
“I believe that the course of the financial extension itself needs to continue to develop, not because of existing speculations. For some large institutions, in particular, companies need to be protected by derivatives, but small and medium-sized investors and speculators need to be aware of the enormous risks they face before entering the track.
未知的实验结局：信仰和理性
Unknown experimental outcome: faith and reason
在很多人看来，比特币是迄今为止人类历史上一次重要的社会经济实验。因为比特币的机制，任何一方力量都很难形成对她的控制，尤其随着比特币总市值不断堆高，总盘被控制的难度也会越来越大，其中多维的经济博弈也在越来越多。
In the view of many, Bitcoin is an important socio-economic experiment in human history to date. Because of the Bitcoin mechanism, it is difficult for either side to form a control over her, especially as the total market value of Bitcoin continues to grow, and so does the multidimensional economic game.
在杨笑看来，这场经济学实验到底会发展成什么样，是一直正向发展，还是在未来某个节点遇到一次巨大的黑天鹅形成系统性崩盘，没有人知道最终的答案，这也恰恰是比特币本身的魅力所在。
In Yang’s laughter, whether this economics experiment has been developing or whether it has encountered a massive black swan in a systematic crash at one of the future nodes, and no one knows the final answer, is precisely what Bitcoin’s own charm is.
当21世纪经济报道记者问道，作为参与者，会如何应对未来可能出现的最糟糕的状况时。杨笑笑着说，说实话，我觉得像我们这种很早的入局者可能很难在这个答案上给出特别好的解释。对于比特币，我们这群人信仰太足，虽说理性上或许会有未来可能发生的各种情况的预期，但从感性的选择上，对它的信仰让你不会做任何出于未来毁灭性影响之上的考量，所以这个行业中的很多人大家彼此称为信仰者。我们会非常珍惜手里的币，不舍得卖币，因为会觉得卖掉任何一个币，都是对自己未来特别大的损失。
When economic reporters in the twenty-first century ask how, as participants, they can deal with the worst that may happen in the future. Yang smiles and says, honestly, I think it may be difficult for early entrants like us to give a particularly good explanation of the answer. For Bitcoin, we believe too much, though rationally there may be expectations of what will happen in the future, but from the point of view, faith in it does not allow you to make any consideration of the destructive effects of the future, so many people in this industry call each other believers.
正如杨笑所说，这场实验很难预测它最终的结局。但不可否认的是，在这个万物皆可内卷的时代，虚拟币矿业创造了无数个造富奇迹，同样也有一波又一波的投机者在血本无归。是否入局，风险面前，或许取决于选择与是否相信。
As Yang laughs, it is difficult to predict the end of the experiment. But it is undeniable that, in an era where everything is within bounds, virtual currency mining has created countless wonders of wealth, as well as a wave of speculators who have lost their blood. In the face of risk, it may depend on choice and belief.
责任编辑：唐婧
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