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一本区块链 文 | 棘轮
OKEx CEO Jay在微博上揶揄火币的合约业务
合约交易发展得有多迅猛？有一组来自非小号的数据能直观说明：
How fast is the contract going? There's a set of data from non-small sizes that can tell intuitively:
2018年，全球交易量前十的交易所中，有2家开了合约交易；
In 2018, two of the top 10 global trading exchanges opened contractual transactions;
如今，全球交易量前十的交易所，有8家都开通了合约交易。
Today, eight of the top 10 global trading exchanges have opened contractual transactions.
它们开出的杠杆倍数，也在不断增加，甚至高到了令人咂舌的地步。
The number of leverages that they offer is increasing and even rising to alarming levels.
早些时候，很多交易所的合约交易杠杆倍数，是5倍、10倍，最多20倍。
Earlier, many exchanges had a five-fold, 10-fold, up to 20-fold leverage on their contractual transactions.
如今，一些交易所已经在提供远超于此的杠杆倍数。比如OKEx的永续合约最高可以提供100倍杠杆，币安更是可以提供125倍的杠杆……
Now, some exchanges are already providing much more leverage than here. For example, the permanent contracts of OKEx can provide up to 100 times the leverage, and currency security can provide 125 times the leverage.
这样的高杠杆，蕴藏着极大的风险。
There are great risks associated with such high leverage.
以OKEx提供的100倍杠杆为例：在玩家做多的前提下，如果币价上涨1%，资产可以翻番；但如果币价下跌1%，玩家就会爆仓，损失掉全部本金。
Take, for example, the 100-fold leverage provided by OKEx: if the price increases by 1 per cent, the asset can double; if the price drops by 1 per cent, the player will blow up the store and lose all the principal.
在合约市场，暴富与倾家荡产，往往就在一瞬之间。
In the contract market, rich and poor, often in the short run.
02赌博
02 Gambling >/strong
合约市场吸引的都是什么玩家？他们都是有典型赌徒心态的人，经常自嘲：“给我一个杠杆，我能亏掉整个地球。”
What players are attracted to the contract market? They're typical gamblers, often mocking themselves: "Give me a lever, I can lose the whole planet."
“合约市场没有‘佛系玩家’。”币圈玩家丁才告诉一本区块链。
"The contract market doesn't have a "false player." Money-circle player Ding only told a block chain.
“交易所APP上都会显示每一单的实时收益率，开了100倍杠杆后，收益率每秒钟都是三位数的变化。前一秒可能是200%，后一秒可能就是300%。”他表示。
"A real-time rate of return for each item is shown on the exchange APP, and the rate of return is a three-digit change every second after a 100-fold leverage. The first second may be 200%, and the second second may be 300%." He said.
在如此剧烈的涨跌面前，几乎所有玩家都会时刻盯盘。而币市的7*24小时交易，更让许多玩家感到心力交瘁。
In the face of such dramatic ups and downs, almost all players stare at each other. And the 7* 24-hour deal in the currency makes a lot of players feel like they're having a hard time.
“开高倍合约单子的时候，根本睡不着觉，必须一直刷手机。”丁才说。
“When you open a list of high-level contracts, you can't sleep, you have to use your cell phone.” Ding said.
更可怕的是，玩久了合约的人，就像资深赌徒一样，会染上“心瘾”，无法戒除。
What's worse is that people who have long contracts, like senior gamblers, get “heart addiction” and can't quit.
两年前，OKEx交易所被质疑“拔网线”无法交易，作为合约玩家的丁才是受害者之一。
Two years ago, the OKEx Exchange was questioned about the impossibility of trading “extension” and was one of the victims of being a contractual player.
“当时我收到了一条条短信，提醒我快爆仓了。而我却打不开APP，什么都做不了，只能眼睁睁地看着自己爆仓。”丁才回忆，“那种绝望的感觉，没法描述。”
"I received a text that reminded me that I was about to explode. And I couldn't open an APP and I couldn't do anything but watch myself explode." Ding remembered, "That feeling of despair, I can't describe."
为了炒币，他几乎透支了所有的信用卡，每个月都要面对几十万的债务。“玩到最后，每次开单看到数字，都已经不觉得是自己的钱了。”
In order to pay off all his credit cards, he had to face hundreds of thousands of debts every month. "To the end of the day, every time I see a number, I don't think it's my money."
2019年，为了戒掉合约交易，丁才向交易所申请注销账号，被客服告知“没有这个服务”。他一气之下，去移动营业厅注销了用了十几年的手机号。
In 2019, Ding applied to the exchange for the cancellation of the account in order to discontinue the contractual transaction and was informed by the customer service that “there was no service”. He went to the mobile office to cancel his cell phone number for more than a decade.
他忍耐了一段时间，但最终还是没能忍住。接下来，他用新的手机号新注册了一个交易所账户，再度投身合约交易。
He endured it for a while, but eventually he couldn't. Then he signed up a new exchange account with his new cell phone number and went into a contract deal again.
他表示，现在自己在币安玩合约，都是开125倍的杠杆，提前设好止盈止损，避免爆仓，“输赢就是几分钟的事。”
He said that now he's playing with the currency, he's a 125-fold leverage, pre-empts the loss of surplus, avoids the explosion, and "wins and losses are just a few minutes."
“币市本身的波动就很大，再加上动辄100倍的杠杆，合约交易已经和赌博无异。”区块链研究员周卫表示。
“The currency market itself is highly volatile, coupled with a 100-fold leverage, and contract transactions are no different from gambling.” According to the block chain researchers.
“对于一些人来说，期货（合约）=网赌。”莱比特矿池CEO江卓尔也曾直言不讳地指出。
“For some people, futures (contracts) = net bets.” As the CEO of the Lebitt mine has pointed out before.
合约交易的持续火爆，反映出当下币圈的一大问题——买涨买跌的投机分子越来越多，坚定囤币的“比特币信仰者”越来越少。
The continuing boom in contract transactions reflects a major problem in the currency ring — a growing number of speculators buying and buying and falling, and a smaller number of “bitcoin believers” who are determined to hoard currency.
“我以前就是个‘比特币信仰者’，只囤币，不炒币。但这两年比特币价格一直没什么起色，传说中的减半行情也看不到影子。偶尔做波段，炒炒合约，也是为了让手上的币少贬值。”小张说。
“I used to be a ‘bitcoin believer’, hoarding only money and not squeezing it. These two years, bitcoin prices haven’t changed much, and there's no sign of half of what the legend says.
而在一部分不玩合约的币圈玩家看来，恰恰是合约交易的泛滥，导致了比特币价格的持续低迷——大量资金都被投入了高杠杆的赌博游戏。
In the view of some of the non-contractual currency players, it is precisely the proliferation of contract transactions that has led to a persistently low price of bitcoin — a large amount of money invested in highly leveraged gambling games.
“交易所应该取消合约交易，禁止做空，这样资金都去现货区，大家都囤币，币价就能涨上去了。”有人戏谑地表示。
“The exchange should cancel the contract deal and ban the empty, so that the money goes to the spot, everyone hoards the money, and the price rises.” Some people say.
在高杠杆的合约交易面前，绝大多数币圈散户，都会沦为韭菜。
In the face of highly leveraged contractual transactions, the vast majority of the coins are scattered and turned into pickles.
“许多玩家错误地以为，只要跑赢50%的人，就能在合约市场赚到钱。”周卫说，“但真相是，他们要跑赢的不是50%的人，而是50%的资金。50%资金的背后，可能是98%的人。”
“Many players wrongly believe that if they run 50% of the people, they can make money in the contract market.” Jovi says, “But the truth is that they won not 50% of the people, but 50% of the money. Behind 50% of the money, it could be 98%.”
在他看来，在高倍杠杆下，玩家的资产可能一夜增值10倍，也可能瞬间归零。收益与风险看似对等，其实不然。
In his view, under high leverage, the player’s assets may increase by 10 times overnight, or they may fall into zero in an instant. Gains and risks appear to be equal, but they are not.
“行情好的时候，很多玩家还没等资产增值10倍，就早早平仓止盈了。行情不好的时候，他们却经常把币握在手里，等着归零。”他解释道，“散户的投资心理，决定了他们无法在合约市场长期盈利。”
"When it's good, many players end up spending 10 times the value of their assets. When it's bad, they hold the money in their hands and wait for it to come back to zero." He explains, "The investment mentality of the diaspora determines that they cannot make a long-term profit in the contract market."
“99.5%-99.9%的散户，都会在合约市场被爆掉。”江卓尔总结，“玩合约和赌博、吸毒没什么区别，许多玩家除非输光资产，否则不会有任何悔悟。”
“99.5%-99.9% of the homeless will be blown up in the contract market.” Jiangchallel concludes, “There is no difference between contract play and gambling, drug use, and many players will not repent unless they lose their assets.”
03推手
币圈的合约交易为何如此疯狂？在许多币圈玩家眼里，交易所就是这个市场的直接推手。
Why is the contract deal in the currency ring so crazy? In the eyes of many currency players, the exchange is the direct pusher of the market.
比如，火币、OKEx、币安三大交易所都曾发起合约大赛活动，拿出豪车、iPhone等奖品奖励玩家。
For example, each of the three major exchanges, namely, the Treasure, the OKEx and the Currency Exchange, has launched a contract competition to reward players with prizes such as luxury cars and iPhones.
火币合约大师赛打出了“玩合约，抢iPhone赢宝马”口号
"Play the contract, grab the iPhone and win the BMW."
那么，交易所为何对合约交易市场如此热衷？
Then why is the exchange so keen on the contract market?
答案很简单——合约交易更赚钱。
The answer is simple -- the contract deal is more profitable.
进入2019年，ICO、交易即挖矿、模式币等玩法不再流行，交易所很难再靠上币费赚钱。回归交易服务本身，成为了许多交易所的共同选择。
In 2019, ICO, transactional mining, model currency, etc., was no longer popular, and it was difficult for an exchange to earn money on a currency fee. Returning to the trading service itself became a common choice for many exchanges.
而在交易市场，合约交易的交易量比现货市场大得多。
In the trading market, on the other hand, the volume of contractual transactions is much larger than in the spot market.
TokenInsight数据显示，2019年1月时，OKEx交易所内合约交易量占比仅为60%，到10月时，这一数字已攀升至81%。
TokenInsight data show that in January 2019, only 60 per cent of contract transactions were on the OKEx exchange, and by October the figure had climbed to 81 per cent.
非小号数据显示，3月30日，在火币平台，比特币24小时交易量为22亿元，而同期的合约交易量却高达285亿元，是前者的13倍。
Non-dealing data show that on 30 March, at the tender platform, Bitcoin had a 24-hour turnover of $2.2 billion, while contract transactions in the same period amounted to $28.5 billion, 13 times the volume of the former.
“玩家的贪婪，让交易所的花样越来越多。而这些花样，又加剧了玩家的贪婪。”周卫说。
"The greed of the players increases the variety of the exchanges, which in turn exacerbates the greed of the players," says Zhou Wei.
江卓尔也对一本区块链表示：“现在，币圈的金融衍生品工具越来越多，这直接提升了整个行业的杠杆率。”
Jiangchael also said about a block chain: “There is now an increasing number of financial derivative instruments in the currency circle, which directly boosts the leverage of the industry as a whole.”
在动辄100倍的高杠杆面前，交易所自身的运营也面临着巨大风险。
The exchange itself also faces great risks in the face of 100-fold leverage.
这是因为，一般来说，在合约市场，一旦币价触及玩家的爆仓线，交易所就会自动平仓。
This is because, in general, in the contract market, once the value of the currency touches the player's silo line, the exchange is automatically unwinded.
但在币价暴涨暴跌时，交易所可能无法第一时间平仓，造成“穿仓”，平台自身资产也会受损。
However, when currency prices soared and fell, the exchange might not be able to level up for the first time, resulting in “silos” and damage to the platform's own assets.
3月12日币市暴跌时，一些币安的盈利用户就收到官方通知，称为弥补交易所损失，他们的资产被“自动减仓”了。
When the currency fell sharply on 12 March, some of the profitable users of the currency received official notification that they were making up for the losses on the exchange and that their assets had been “automaticly reduced”.
也就是说，由于币价剧烈波动，交易所自身出现了资金损失。一些本来赚了钱的玩家，被交易所扣了钱，用以弥补损失。
In other words, the exchange itself has lost money because of the volatility of currency prices. Some of the players who would have earned money have been held up by the exchange to make up for the loss.
“其实各大交易所都有类似的‘穿仓补救’机制。只不过币安的机制会优先让赚钱最多的大户补钱，而OKEx的机制则是全体盈利用户均摊。”周卫解释。
“In fact, major exchanges have similar ‘clothing’ mechanisms. But the money security mechanism gives priority to the biggest money-earning households, while the OKEx mechanism is distributed among all the profit-making users.” Zhou's explanation.
“两家的机制都做不到完全公平，只不过币安的机制让少部分用户受到了更大的损失，所以争议也更大。”他表示。
“The two mechanisms were not entirely fair, except that the currency security mechanism caused more damage to a small number of users and was therefore even more controversial.” He said.
他认为，从2018年起，与多家交易所相关的维权事件，大多与合约交易有关。在这些事件中，有玩家站到天台以死相逼，甚至在交易所门前喝下敌敌畏。
In his view, since 2018, many of the rights related to multiple exchanges have been linked to contractual transactions. In these cases, players stand on the roof to kill each other and even drink fear in front of the exchange door.
“因为被骗而走上维权之路，固然可怜。但无论如何，赌场里的赌徒，都是不值得同情的。”周卫说。
“It's sad that you're on the right track because you're being tricked. But no gambler in a casino is worthy of sympathy,” says Zhou Wei.
“股神”巴菲特一直是杠杆的坚决反对者。
“我见过太多高智商的人，被杠杆搞砸了自己的生意。他们都很聪明，却因为杠杆一夜破产，一无所有。” 2019年，他曾经在公司股东大会上这样说。
"I've seen too many people with high IQs who have been leveraged to screw up their business. They're smart, but they're broke overnight because of leverage and have nothing." In 2019, he used to say that at the stockholders meeting.
人人都想成为下一个巴菲特，但巴菲特的告诫，却不是每个人都听得进去。
Everyone wants to be Buffett's next, but Buffett's message is not that everyone can listen to it.
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