9月25日凌晨，比特币开启暴跌行情。据OKEx数据显示从02：00开始，比特币一路跌至7660美元，跌幅高达21.7%，自6月以来首次跌破8000美元，这也是四个月以来的最低价位。“比特币暴跌”相关话题瞬间登上微博热搜榜单。
In the early hours of September 25, Bitcoin started a violent fall. According to the OKEx data, from 02:00, Bitcoin fell all the way to $7660, with a 21.7% drop, the first time since June that it fell by $8,000, the lowest price in four months.
本次下跌，市场中有诸多说法。有人认为是Bakkt期货上线交易量未达预期，也有人认为是由于OKEx和CME两大合约交易平台季度合约即将到期引发了本次下跌。还有一种较为有趣的说法是大跌和美国众议院民主党弹劾总统特朗普有关，这主要是从美股下跌的历史角度来判断。与此同时，关于“加密货币和Libra是否为证券”的听证会也在9月24日晚举行。
A more interesting argument is that the fall is related to the United States House Democratic impeachment of President Trump, which is largely judged from the historical point of view of the fall in United States shares. Meanwhile, a hearing on “encrypted money and whether Libra is a security” was also held on the evening of 24 September.
多重原因之下，比特币带动市场里其余币种崩盘式下跌。
For a number of reasons, Bitcoin led to a fall in the remaining currencies in the market.
多重原因组合 比特币剧烈波动
Multiple Causes Combining Bitcoin Very Volatile
本轮下跌之前，比特币已经横盘三月有余。尽管有观点认为在长期震荡行情下迎来波动是必然性，但本轮的下跌还是引起了诸多猜测。
Before the fall of the current round, Bitcoin had been running for more than three months. Although there is a perception that volatility in the face of long-term shocks is inevitable, the fall of the current round has given rise to a number of speculations.
本周一，被视为牛市大开关的Bakkt正式上线比特币期货交易。市场翘首以盼的Bakkt上线后交易量惨淡，首日月度期货仅成交71个BTC，日期货仅成交2个BTC。上线三天总成交215枚BTC，仅仅是OKEx季度合约24小时成交量的16000分之一，OKEx永续合约24小时成交量的620分之一。
On Monday this week, Bakkt, which is considered a bull market switch, is officially on the line for bitcoin futures. After the market’s long-awaited arrival, Bakkt has had a very poor volume of transactions, with only 71 BTCs on the first day and only two BTCs on the date. A total of 215 BTCs on the line for three days, only 16,000 of the 24-hour quarterly contract for OKEx, and 1 620 of the 24-hour contract for OKEx.
市场对这一潜在利好大失所望，引发抛售狂潮。
Markets have lost sight of this potential advantage, triggering a dumping boom.
引发暴跌的还有另一猜测，即期货合约的交割。本周四，OKEx交易所比特币季度合约将迎来交割日，并且，CME合约也会在本周五到期。从历史角度来看，交割日前比特币一般都会有回调。在大利空之下，市场情绪低迷也有可能引发抛售。
This Thursday, the quarterly contract for the OKEx Exchange Bitcoin will come to an end, and the CME contract will expire this Friday. Historically, bitcoin usually returns before the contract is delivered.
针对这一说法，OK战略副总裁徐坤并不认可，她表示暴跌根本原因在于支撑BTC快速上涨的诸多因素逐渐被消化，缺乏新的驱动，诸如热炒许久的Bakkt也并没有立刻给市场带来惊喜，大盘横盘许久而向上乏力，则势必通过回调洗牌再次蓄力。
In response, she said that the root cause of the collapse was the gradual digestion of the factors supporting the rapid rise of the BTC and the lack of new drivers, such as the long-fought Bakkt, which did not bring immediate surprises to the market, and the long-spanning and lack of upward strength, which would lead to renewed resilience through the reshuffling of cards.
她指出，从时间点上来看，这次暴跌与之前暴涨，都是宏观风向、资金动向等多种因素叠加引爆。合约产品是市场情绪的放大镜，季度合约即将到期是客观的市场条件之一，并非决定性因素。
She pointed out that, in terms of time, both the crash and the previous surge had been triggered by a combination of macrowind and financial forces. The contract product was a magnifying mirror of market moods, and the imminent expiration of the quarterly contract was an objective market condition, not a determining factor.
对此，OKEx投资分析总监K爷也从合约的对手选择进行了解释：“合约的到期交割，只能是加速事件爆发。如果是存粹因为合约到期，一个合约的踩踏，会形成另一个合约的相对重建仓位，市场不会表现的这么悲壮。”
In response, Mr. K, Director of Investment Analysis, OKEx, also explained from the opponent of the contract: “The contract is due, but only to accelerate the outbreak of events. If the populism is due to the contract’s expiry, the stamping of one contract will form another’s relative re-establishment of the warehouse, and the market will not behave as pessimistic.”
值得注意的是，徐坤提出的Bakkt未为BTC带来上涨驱动的观点与市场一致。Bakkt上线期货是加密货币市场走向主流世界的密钥，对整个加密货币交易市场来说有着举足轻重的地位，但Bakkt在进入市场后需要一定的适应期。在Bakkt调整阶段，并未有其他上涨动力刺激BTC的价格，预期落空导致了一定程度上的市场情绪萎靡。
It is worth noting that the Bakkt argument put forward by Xu Quan did not coincide with the market’s view that BTC was driven by rising prices. Bakkt’s up-front futures are key to an encrypt currency market to the mainstream world, and they are important for the entire encrypt currency exchange market, but Bakkt needs a period of adaptation after entering the market.
BitBull Capital首席执行官乔?迪帕斯夸尔则表示，比特币价格下跌的部分原因是，人们对这种新的比特币衍生品“反应冷淡”。他还提到，比特币网络的“哈希率”（哈希率，hash rate，是衡量全球比特币矿工总计算能力的指标）在过去24小时内突然下降。但是他也说，这可能只是“暂时的波动”。
Chief Executive Officer Joe Bitbull Capital? Depasquale said that the fall in bitcoin prices was due in part to a “difficult reaction” to this new bitcoin derivative. He also mentioned that the Bitcoin network's “Hash rate” (Hash rate, an indicator of the global total capacity of bitcoin miners) had declined suddenly in the last 24 hours. But he also said that it could be only “temporary fluctuations”.
在分析人士看来，9000美元是比特币的关键支撑位，当价格跌破了这一位置后，便引发了“抛售潮”，比特币应声大跌。而有观点认为，BitMEX 上的追加保证金以及合约清算可能加剧了比特币此次下跌，该交易所为客户提供100倍的杠杆。受凌晨跳水行情影响，BitMEX在跳水行情发生的12小时里有近7亿美元多单爆仓。
According to analysts, $9,000 was the key support for Bitcoin, and when the price fell, it triggered a “sale wave,” and bitcoin fell. The argument was that the additional bond on BitMEX and the settlement of the contract might have exacerbated the fall, and that the exchange provided a 100-fold leverage for customers.
合约重灾区 各大交易平台表现不一
The major trading platforms show mixed performance in the disaster-affected areas
在这波行情中，合约战场受灾严重。根据币coin数据显示，过去24小时，全网新增9.2亿USDT（约合人民币66.5亿元）的爆仓单，其中比特币新增634万张爆仓单，约7.20万个BTC。
In this situation, the contract battlefield was severely affected. According to the Coin data, over the past 24 hours, 920 million USDT (approximately $6.65 billion) has been added to the network, of which 6,340,000 have been added to Bitcoin and about 7.2 million BTC.
目前已经开通合约交易的主要加密货币交易平台有OKEx、BitMEX、火币、币安等。
The main encrypted money trading platforms that have now opened up for contractual transactions are OKEx, BitMEX, coins, currency security, etc.
币安是这里面的“新贵”，在本月刚刚开通合约交易，其还为此收购一家期权交易所，加上自主研发合约系统，双平台为合约“保驾护航”，可见币安对合约这一赛道的重视。
The currency is “newly valuable” in this context, and it has just opened a contract deal this month, for which it also acquired a futures exchange, coupled with an autonomous R & D contract system, and a two-platform “facilitator” of the contract, which is seen in the importance it attaches to the track.
如今上线不足一月，却频频遭遇打击。
Today, less than a month after being on the line, they have been hit frequently.
据某用户提供的截图显示，凌晨的跳水行情里，Binance JEX的BTC永续合约一度下跌至4105美元，严重背离市场价格，跌出“插针”走势。OKEX、火币则并未有该现象，最低价与市场一致。而今日上午，Binance JEX的这一走势在K线图中消失了，币安也因此被质疑“修改K线”。
According to a screenshot provided by a user, the BTC contract for Binance JEX fell to $4105 in the early hours of the morning, grossly off the market price, falling out of the “pinch” trend. OKEX, the tender, did not do that, and the lowest price was the same as the market. And this morning, Binance JEX disappeared in the K-line, and the currency was questioned for “modifying the K-line”.
爆仓后的分摊也是市场所关注的重点之一。在分摊方面，目前火币合约页面显示BSV、BCH出现了预估分摊，OKEx未有这一现象，全币种零分摊。
The post-shock assessment is also one of the market’s main concerns. In the case of the assessment, the BSV and BCH pages now show a pre-assessed assessment, which is not done by OKEx, with zero assessments in all currencies.
除此之外，前段市场引得各大交易平台“口水战”的过早提前爆仓问题也在本次极端行情中再次出现。
In addition to this, the problem of premature pre-exploitation in the previous market, which led to the “saling of water” of the major trading platforms, has reappeared in this extreme.
凌晨05：32分，圈内知名KOL区块链小侠在社交平台上表示：“提前爆仓让我损失了几十万，如果没有补仓我就不会那么快爆。”据了解，其本次因为过早爆仓问题损失了几十万。
At 05:32 a.m., the ring-famous KOL block chain man said on the social platform: “I lost hundreds of thousands of dollars early, and I wouldn't have blown up as fast without a back-up.” This time, it was known that hundreds of thousands had been lost because of the premature explosion.
截至本文完稿，比特币已经跌至8300美元下方，但参照今天最新的OKEx合约大数据来看，合约用户中精英账户最新的做多账户为65%，说明目前大多数行业头部机构对行情持乐观预期。并且BTC总的多空人数持仓比为1.06>1，说明目前做多人数仍然占上风，短期内出现进一步大幅下跌的可能性较小。
By the end of this paper, Bitcoin has fallen below $8,300, but the latest multi-accountization of the best account among contract users, based on today’s most recent OKEx contract big data, stands at 65%, indicating that most industry head offices are currently optimistic about their performance. And BTC’s overall multi-empty capacity is at 1.06>1 it suggests that the number of people doing it is still the upper, and that it is less likely that there will be a further significant decline in the short term.
在业内人士看来，本次下跌更像是“空头洗盘”操作，是近来失望情绪的释放，待空头力量释放完毕，将再次迎来新行情。比特币暴跌后，USDT溢价高达7.25，为年内新高，从侧面说明了有一定量的抄底资金入场抢筹，市场对比特币大方向仍旧看好。
In the eyes of the industry, this fall is more like an “empty wash” operation, which is the release of recent disappointments, and when the empty power is released, it will be re-emerged. After Bitcoin’s collapse, the USDT premium will be as high as 7.25, the year’s high, showing that there is a small amount of bottom-down money coming in, and that the market’s big direction of Bitcoin is still good.
莱比特矿池创始人江卓尔也在微博发表评论称“此次 BTC 下跌是牛市前的最后一次上车机会”。
The founder of Lebitt's mine, Jiang Zhor, also commented in Weibo that “the fall of the BTC was the last opportunity to get into the car before the Cattle City”.
责任编辑：唐婧
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