上半年比特币、以太坊等加密货币大幅上涨和疯狂波动，那么下半年它们走势将会如何？此时正是入手良机还是已经高处不胜寒了？
In the first half of the year, the encoded currencies of Bitcoin, Etheria, etc. have risen and fluctuated, so what are they going to do in the second half of the year? Is it a good time or is it already high?
比特币走势
6月11日比特币 (GDAXUSD)上摸历史新高$3,000美元，随后几日回落27%。上半年比特币收在$2,436.7美元，过去三个月中价格已经翻番。
On 11 June, the Bitcoin (GDAXUSD) showed a record high of $3,000, followed by a sunset of 27 per cent. Bitcoin received $2,436.7 in the first half of the year, and prices have doubled over the past three months.
比特币的突然崛起基本得益于亚洲需求的增长。四月初，日本新规则生效，正式认可比特币为法定货币，大型零售商开始接受比特币支付。
Bitcoin’s sudden rise largely benefited from rising demand in Asia. In early April, Japan’s new rules came into force, formally recognizing bitcoin as a legal currency, and large retailers began to accept bitcoin payments.
但比特币交易速度随着交易量的增长而放缓，开发商和企业之间对于如何最有效增加该数字货币的交易能力出现分歧，比特币承压。因此比特币可能会被分解成独立的竞争性货币。
But the pace of Bitcoin transactions slowed as the volume of transactions increased, and there was disagreement between developers and businesses as to how best to increase the trading capacity of the digital currency, with bitcoin under pressure. Bitcoin could therefore be divided into independent competitive currencies.
预计今年晚些时候将推出解决该问题的新提案，可能导致比特币网络处理能力的改变，即所谓的分叉，或将该货币分成两个单独的版本 - 硬叉和软叉。
New proposals to address this issue are expected later this year, which may result in a change in the capacity of the Bitcoin network, the so-called fork, or the split of the currency into two separate versions - hard fork and soft fork.
对于比特币可能分裂的担忧减弱了投资者对于比特币的需求，同时提振了投资者对于替代货币以太坊的需求。
Concerns about the possible division of bitcoins have weakened investors'demand for bitcoins and boosted investors'demand for alternative currencies.
以太坊上扬
with a view to
以太坊走势
6月11日，以太坊上摸历史高点$419.3美元，随后出现闪崩。上一季度价格收报$260.52美元。
On 11 June, an historic high of $419.3 was touched by the Taiyet, followed by a crash. Last quarter prices were reported at $260.52.
据商业内幕网消息，2015年推出的以太坊是继比特币之后市值第二高的加密货币。
According to the commercial insider network, the Ether House was launched in 2015 as the second-highest encoded currency after Bitcoin.
比特币目前市值大约410亿美元，以太坊总市值大约260亿美元。
Bitcoin currently has a market value of approximately $41 billion, and the total market value of the Tahrir is approximately $26 billion.
但比特币和以太坊有几大不同之处。有些是完成交易的时间等技术方面的不同，但最大的不同在于货币的用途。
But there are a few differences between Bitcoin and Ether. Some are technical differences, such as the timing of the transaction, but the biggest difference is the use of money.
比特币是一种法定货币的替代货币，纯粹是数字货币。而以太坊则将其网站建立在对等合同，即有些人所称的“智能合同”的平台之上。简而言之：任何类型的以太坊交易都将在交易条件达成时同时付款，使得买卖双方的交易环境达成平衡。
In short, any type of e-business will pay simultaneously when the terms of the deal are met, balancing the trading environment between buyers and sellers.
尽管比特币和以太坊都是加密货币，但两者事实上并无直接竞争性。
Although both Bitcoin and Etheria are encrypted currencies, there is in fact no direct competition between them.
区块链技术
近年来，加密货币的兴趣已经转移到其潜在的技术区块链之上。这可能会导致金融界而非数字货币本身更大的革命。
In recent years, the interest in crypto-currency has shifted to its potential technical block chain. This could lead to a larger revolution in the financial community rather than in the digital currency itself.
区块链是存储在区块中的金融交易的分布式分类帐，由互联网上的计算机网络维护。
The block chain is a distributed ledger of financial transactions stored in blocks, maintained by a computer network on the Internet.
区块中的数据在记录之后，在网络上所有随后的区块更改之前都不能更改。今年五月，全球Fintech财团R3筹集了大约1.07亿美元的资金，以在区块链核心开发分布式分类账技术的商业应用。
The data in the blocks are recorded and cannot be changed before all subsequent block changes on the network. In May this year, the global Fintech consortium R3 raised some $107 million to develop a commercial application of distributed ledger technology at the core of the block chain.
银行希望自行验证以及跟踪交易技术最终可以有助于降低交易结算和国际支付等方面的复杂性和成本。
Banks hoped that self-certification and tracking of transactions techniques would ultimately help to reduce the complexity and cost of transactions settlement and international payments.
ICO推动扩张
ICO drives expansion
2017年下半年，比特币和以太坊的价格可能会被首次虚拟货币募股（ICO）所推动，该种方式是推出新加密货币的首先融资工具。ICO处于众筹和首次公开募股之间，通过出售以通过区块链技术创建的数字令牌，即“虚拟货币”来交换具有直接价值的加密货币。
In the second half of 2017, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethio are likely to be driven by the first virtual currency collection (ICO), which is a first financing tool for the introduction of new encrypted currencies. The ICO is in between publicly raised and first publicly raised shares, exchanging encrypted currencies of direct value through the sale of digital tokens created through block chain technology, the “virtual currency.”
以太坊最初通过ICO提供资金而发展。随着投机者对区块链的兴趣迅速扩大，投入比特币和以太坊的资金也开始增加，其价格可能会继续上涨。
As the interest of speculators in block chains rapidly expands, so does the investment in Bitcoin and Etheria, whose prices are likely to continue to rise.
比特币和以太坊之外的其他数字货币
bitcoin and other digitized currencies other than the Tai family
莱特币和瑞波币是在以太坊到来之前排名第二和第三的长期存在的加密货币。
Latcoin and Riboco are the second and third long-standing encrypted currencies before the coming of Etherpau.
瑞波币走势
近年来，瑞波币的市值已经超过莱特币，成为继比特币和以太坊之后排名第三的数字货币。
In recent years, the market value of Ribbon has exceeded that of Laitco, becoming the third digital currency after Bitcoin and Ether.
瑞波币和莱特币与比特币和以太坊很多方面一样，但有着不同的用途。瑞波币是一种支付协议，是代表和转让任何价值单位的一种安全方式。瑞波币由瑞银和桑坦德银行 (MC:SAN)等银行使用，无法挖掘，即意味着额外瑞波币的创建为集中授权，只能由该货币的拥有者或了解并可以接触适用技术的代表来创建。
Ripon and Lightcoin are like Bitcoin and Etheria in many ways, but have different uses. Ripcoin is a payment agreement, a safe way to represent and transfer any value unit. Ripcoin is used by banks like Silver and Santander Bank (MC:SAN) and cannot dig, which means that the creation of extra Riboco is a centralized authorization that can only be created by the owner of the currency or by a representative who knows and has access to the appropriate technology.
莱特币走势
而莱特币，尽管类似于比特币，但在技术上更加高级，因为其交易处理更快，减少了比特币交易中常见的瓶颈。
On the other hand, even though similar to bitcoin, it is technologically advanced because it is processed faster and reduces the bottlenecks that are common in bitcoin transactions.
但在每日的交易中，加密货币的波动都由交易者控制。有一点是肯定的：几分钟内20%的闪崩或跳涨在数字货币市场从未出现过。
But in daily transactions, the volatility of encrypted currencies is controlled by the traders. One thing is certain: 20 per cent of the crashes or jumps in a few minutes have never occurred in the digital money market.
加密货币在2013/05-2017/05的上涨
感谢TechCrunch提供图表
Thanks to TechCrunch for the chart.
根据最新数据，当今有800多种不同的加密货币，包括马克思币、庞氏币、自拍币和普金币等具有深奥名称的数字货币，并且不时有新的数字货币诞生。这就是为什么持续有泡沫的说法出现。
According to the latest data, there are more than 800 different encrypted currencies today, including digital currencies with profound names, such as Marx, Ponzi, self-initiated and ploughing, and from time to time new digital currencies are born. That is why there is a persistent bubble.
过去几个月中，这些数字货币的价格呈指数增长。例如，自拍币6月初价格为0.000002美元，现在价格为0.000026美元。这个数字也许可笑，但却是在一个月之内上涨了1300％。庞氏币（PonziCoin，其名称暗示泡沫）从三月的0.0014美元升至6月6日的年内高点0.087美元。升幅为6250%，即之前价值的62.5倍。
The prices of these currencies have increased exponentially over the past few months. For example, the price of the self-notes at the beginning of June was US$0.00002 and now is US$0.000026. This number may be ridiculous, but it rose by 1,300 per cent in one month. PonziCoin, whose name suggests bubbles, rose from US$0.014 in March to US$0.087 in the year of 6 June. The rise was 6250 per cent, or 62.5 times the previous value.
这种平流层利润完美解释了目前对于加密货币的“淘金潮”，使得加密货币圈中每种货币都鸡犬升天。
This stratospheric profit is a perfect explanation of the current “gold rush” for encrypted currencies, which raises each currency in an encrypted currency ring.
ETF和共同基金的采用
在丰厚利润的驱使下，基金管理团队和公司纷纷进入虚拟货币市场就不足为奇了。
It is not surprising that the Fund's management team and companies have entered virtual money markets, driven by lucrative profits.
Grayscale的比特币投资信托基金(OTC:GBTC)是一种柜台交易的ETF，即不是在挂牌交易所交易的基金；该公司称该基金为首个“从比特币价格获利的公开报价的安全资产”。该ETF相比比特币和美元对来说价格更高，并不完全模仿比特币的交易。五月该基金表现突出，增长248%，当时比特币增幅为72%。2017年初以来，该ETF增长199%，同期比特币增幅129%。
Grayscale's Bitcoin Investment Trust (OTC:GBTC) is a counter-trading ETF, a fund that is not traded on a listed exchange; it refers to the Fund as the first “security asset for a public offer profiting from Bitcoin prices”. The ETF is higher than Bitcoins and the United States dollar, and does not exactly mimic Bitcoins' transactions. In May, the Fund showed an outstanding growth of 248 per cent, compared to 72 per cent at that time. Since early 2017, the ETF has grown by 199 per cent, compared with 129 per cent over the same period.
其他基金团队也纷纷加入，但并非每个都成功。美国证券交易委员会今年3月10日发布的一项决定中，驳回了泰勒和卡梅伦?温克洛斯（Cameron Winklevoss）在Bats BZX交易所上市的Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF（COIN）的申请。当时，美国证交会称否决Winklevoss的申请是因为欺诈风险和全球比特币市场缺乏监管。
In a decision issued by the US Securities and Exchange Commission on 10 March this year, Taylor and Cameron Winklevos’ application for Winklevos Bitcoin ETF (COIN), listed on the Bats BZX Exchange, was rejected. At that time, the SEC claimed that the rejection of Winklevos’ application was due to fraud risks and the lack of regulation in the global Bitcoin market.
3月24日，Bats提交拒绝判决的呈文，对该判决提出上诉。一个月后，美国证交会同意考虑Bats的呈文。潜在的比特币投资者在等待该问题的下一轮结果，看是否可以扭转美国证交所原来的判决。消息宣布后，比特币大涨。但据美国广播公司财经频道（CNBC）称，审批需要惊动高层。
On 24 March, Bats filed a denial-of-judgement submission appealing the decision. A month later, the SEC agreed to consider the Bats submission.
上月，总部在瑞士的加密基金公司Zug宣布计划推出基于加密货币指数的欧洲共同基金Cryptocurrency Fund，将在大部分虚拟货币上进行投资，包括比特币、以太坊、瑞波币和其他完善的加密货币。该基金将在2017年第四季度的某个时候推出。
Last month, Zug, a Swiss-based encryption fund company, announced plans to launch the European Common Fund Cryptocurrecy Fund, based on the cryptographic monetary index, which will invest in most virtual currencies, including Bitcoin, Ethio, Ribbon, and other well-developed encrypted currencies. The fund will be launched sometime in the fourth quarter of 2017.
加密货币基本面
Encrypted Currency Basics
除投资基金看好之外，还有其他的提振下半年加密货币价格的因素。政府正式认可虚拟货币，确定至少部分虚拟货币为法定货币，将吸引虚拟货币买盘，从而增加需求。日本最近将比特币视为付款的法定货币，使得比特币至历史新高。
In addition to the investment funds, there are other factors that boost the price of encrypted currencies for the second half of the year. The government officially endorses virtual currencies, establishing at least some of them as legal currencies, and will attract virtual currency buyouts, thus increasing demand.
基金的认可和官方对于虚拟货币的制裁反过来使其更受主流关注。目前，即便对于加密货币的兴趣日增，但仅有一小部分人了解到其存在和内部运作，而参与其交易的人更少。随着加密货币在日常生活中的使用率的加大，其价值也会增长。
The Fund’s recognition and official sanctions on virtual money, in turn, make it more mainstream. At present, even with growing interest in encrypted currencies, only a small number of people are aware of their existence and internal operations, while fewer are involved in their transactions.
总结来看，比特币和以太坊可被视为“灾难对冲工具”，因为其不受管制，独立于联邦政府和央行之外，可能在战争或重大灾难时期凸显其价值。尽管其价格大幅波动，使其不具备避险功能，但如果朝鲜等世界动荡局面持续，我们预计比特币和其他数字货币将会飙升。
In conclusion, Bitcoin and Etheria can be regarded as “disaster skirmishes,” because they are unregulated, independent of the federal government and central banks, and may highlight their value in times of war or major disaster. Although their prices fluctuate significantly, rendering them unavoidable, we expect that Bitcoin and other digital currencies will rise dramatically if the world’s turmoil, such as in North Korea, continues.
有些人可能会认为，如果没有更广泛的采纳和更可靠的政府对新兴虚拟货币世界的监督，很少有人会推荐似乎目前为“数字令牌”领域的高波动和原始环境的数字货币。似乎媒体评论和新闻头条是其主要驱动因素。同样，灾难避风港对于新的金融产品来说只是薄弱的利基，更不用说新资产了。
Some might argue that, in the absence of broader adoption and more reliable government oversight of the emerging virtual currency world, few would recommend digital currencies that seem to be highly volatile and primitive in the “digital token” arena. Media commentary and headlines seem to be the main drivers.
相信加密货币未来的人会认为其价值会翻番。例如，6月初，著名亿万富翁投资人马克·库班推特称：“我认为比特币是泡沫......但我不怀疑其价值。我所怀疑的是其估值。”他对于比特币及其类似数字货币资产的说法是否正确？或加密货币会早期应用到更新、更智能和更高利润的方面？
For example, in early June, the famous billionaire investor Mark Kuban tweets: “I think bitcoin is a bubble... but I don't doubt its value. What I doubt is its valuation.” Is he right about bitcoin and its similar digital monetary assets?
文章来源： Investing.com ——全球金融市场实时行情和资讯专家。 https://cn.investing.com/
Source: Investment.com — Real-time finance markets and information experts worldwide. https://cn.investing.com/
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