比特币6.4万美元成为关键支撑！散户筹码在6.6万-6.8万区间

STH Realized Price是短期持有者(持币时间短于155天的用户，截稿前往回推155天，刚好约是1月份美国比特币现货ETF获得批准前后)在链上平均换手的成本线，是分析目前筹码主要支撑的指标。因此，只要比特币在未来几个月内保持在64,000美元以上，比特币价格的长期前景将保持看涨，因为该价格是重要的支撑。

STH Realized Price, a short-term holder (a user with a currency of less than 155 days, with a deadline of 155 days, just before and after January’s approval of the US’s spot ETF), is an average cost line for changing hands on the chain and an indicator of the main support of the current chips. Thus, as long as Bitcoin remains above $64,000 in the coming months, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin prices will remain high, as it is an important support.

链上数据分析师Murphy近日也发文指出：从以往的数据来看，只要没有出现黑天鹅事件，牛市进程中BTC的价格很难大幅低于STH-RP，接近或略低于这个位置就会引发大量的需求。因此，STH-RP是较强的支撑。

As Murphy, a data analyst on the chain, also recently wrote: In the absence of a black swan event, BTC prices in the cattle market process are unlikely to be significantly lower than STH-RP, creating a large demand near or slightly below this position. As a result, STH-RP is strongly supported.

比特币的长短期持有者已实现价格

筹码从6万-6.4万美元大量换手到6.6万-6.8万美元

There's a huge switch of chips from $60,000-$64 million to $66,000-$68 million.

Murphy进一步以URPD数据指出，近20天来链上结构的主要变化是60,000-64,000美元区间的筹码被大量换手到了66,000-68,000美元区间，并形成了近155万枚BTC的堆积。这就在STH-RP之上，又形成了一个较为厚实的「护城河」。

Murphy further states, with URL data, that the main change in the structure of the chain over the last 20 days is that the leverage between the $60,000-64,000 area was substantially changed to the $66,000-68,000 area, creating a build-up of nearly 1.55 million BTCs. This, above STH-RP, has created a thicker “coastal river”.

Murphy总结道：「我认为以当前的数据看，如没有出现在突发性外在事件严重打击情绪的前提下，这个下限(应是指STH-RP)将不容易被打破」。

Murphy concluded by saying, "In the light of the current data, this threshold (which should refer to STH-RP) will not be easily broken if it does not appear in a sudden external setting that severely upsets the mood."

注解：

Notes:

• URPD全名为UTXO Realized Price Distribution，即UTXO的已实现价格分布，它能清楚的反映流通中的BTC在最后一次移动时对应的价格区间。简单的说，就是BTC链上筹码价格分布。

  The full name of the URPD is UTXO Realized Price Distribution, the realized price distribution of UTXO, which clearly reflects the price range that the BTC in circulation corresponds to when it last moves. Simply put, the leverage price distribution on the BTC chain.

• 是分析目前筹码主要成本、支撑或压力位，从而判断当前市场的情绪的有利指标。

  It is a favourable indicator of the mood in the current market by analysing the main costs, supports or pressures of the current chips.

比特币6/7URPD

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