陶娅洁
Toyaji.
来源: 时代周报
Source: Times Weekly.
近日，币圈突现黑天鹅事件。
In recent days, the currency has resurfaced the Black Swan incident.
比特币持续下挫，据加密货币数据提供商coinmarketcap数据显示，6月14日，比特币已跌破2.1万美元大关，最低跌至20950美元，创下2020年12月以来的最低水平。
Bitcoin continues to fail, and according to the data from the crypto-data provider Coinmarkketcap, on 14 June, Bitcoin fell through the $210,000 threshold, down to $20,950, the lowest level since December 2020. & nbsp;
更令人揪心的是，据英为财情的数据，截至6月14日，比特币7日涨跌幅为-24.98%，跌去近三成。另据法新社伦敦消息，和去年11月68991.85美元的历史峰值相比，比特币价格已下跌69%。也就是说，如果在高点买入一枚比特币，目前为止的浮亏高达32万元人民币，和一辆特斯拉model 3的价格相当。
Even more striking is the fact that, according to British financial data, by 14 June, Bitcoin had fallen by 24,98% on 7 June, falling to nearly 30%. According to Agence France-Presse London, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by 69% compared to its historical peak of $68,991.85 last November. That is, if a bitcoin is bought at a high point, the current deficit is 320,000 yuan, and a Teslamodel & nbsp; it is equivalent to the price of 3.
不仅如此，在过去两年中，一些涉足加密货币的资本大佬亏惨了，其中就包括华人“首富”、币安交易所创始人赵长鹏、特斯拉 CEO 马斯克。
Moreover, in the past two years, some of the big capitalists involved in encrypted money have lost their jobs, including the Chinese “rich” and the founder of the currency exchange, Zhao Chang Peng, Tesla & nbsp; CEO & nbsp; and Mask;
暴跌之下，全球第二大数字货币——公共区块链平台以太坊也难以独善其身。6月14日，以太坊跌破1100美元/枚，创下2021年1月以来新低。此外，狗狗币、Cardano、Avalanche等其他数字货币也遭遇了不同程度的大幅下跌。
The second-largest digital currency in the world – the public block chain platform Ether – is not unique. On June 14, it fell by $1,100, reaching a new low since January 2021. In addition, other digital currencies, such as dog coins, Cardano, and Avalanche, have experienced significant declines. & nbsp;
在上述跌跌不休的情况下，带来的连锁反应“立竿见影”。时代周报记者查阅coinglass显示的数字货币全网合约爆仓信息，截至6月14晚10点，过去24小时比特币爆仓金额高达4.08亿美元，折合人民币27.5亿；以太坊爆仓金额为2.67亿美元，折合人民币17.9亿。
The chain reaction was “immediately visible” in the above-mentioned downturns. As of 10 p.m. on 14 June, in the last 24 hours, the amount of the digital currency-wide contract explosion, as shown by Coinglass, amounted to $408 million, equivalent to $2.75 billion; and the amount of $267 million, equivalent to $1.79 billion, was reported by the Times Journal.
coinglass官网截图
Web screenshot of coinglass officers & nbsp; & nbsp;
“很惨，可以说是历史性的暴跌了。”资深币圈人士李楠对时代周报记者感叹。由于极端的市场条件，据CNBC报道，美国百亿加密借贷平台Celsius于当地时间周日表示，“平台将暂停所有提款、交易和账户之间的转账。”
“Droughly, it can be said that it was a historic collapse.” Lee Nan, a senior currency player, lamented the reporter of the Times. Due to extreme market conditions, CBC reported that the US 10-billion-dollar encrypted lending platform, Celsius, said on Sunday, local time, “the platform will suspend all transfers between withdrawals, transactions and accounts.” & nbsp;
作为使用最为广泛的一种数字货币，比特币的暴跌也深刻影响着数字货币的全局。据数据汇集公司币虎网站6月13日披露，目前全球加密货币的市值不足1万亿美元。比特币为何会下跌？着眼未来，比特币是就此跌入深渊，抑或能逆风翻盘？
As one of the most widely used digital currencies, the sharp fall in bitcoin also profoundly affected the overall picture of digital money. According to the data-collecting corporate currency website, on June 13, the market value of global encrypted money is currently less than $1 trillion.
美联储加息之殇
(a) The Fed's interest-added accelerator and nbsp;
“美联储最近释放的加息信号，是导致比特币大跌的最重要的金融因素。”中央财经大学法学院教授、金融法研究所所长黄震对时代周报记者说道。
“The most important financial factor that led to the sharp fall of Bitcoin is the recent signal of interest hikes released by the Federal Reserve.” The President of the Institute of Financial Law, Professor of the Faculty of Law of the University of Central Finance and Finance Law, Yellow Bang, told the Times Journal reporter & nbsp;
在黄震看来，长久以来，在美元通货膨胀之下，大家都倾向于持有比特币实现资产保值增值，比特币也获得了一波上涨。而今美元加息靴子即将落地，美元升值的市场预期也较为强烈，市场对比特币持看空态度，因此比特币价格出现大跌。
In the light of the yellow earthquake, for a long time, there has been a tendency to hold bitcoin to add value to the value of the dollar, and bitcoin has gained a wave of rise. Now that the dollar’s interest-added boots are on the ground, the dollar’s appreciation market is expected to be stronger, and the market’s price of bitcoin has fallen sharply as a result of its emptiness.
就在6月10日晚间，美国劳工部公布的美国5月CPI数据同比上涨8.6%，刷新了近40年高位，市场对美联储加息预期上升。尽管美联储官员此前表示计划在6月加息50个基点，但据华尔街日报消息，美联储官员又称可能会在北京时间16日凌晨宣布加息75个基点。
Just on the evening of June 10, the US Department of Labor announced a 8.6% rise in the US CPI data for May, refreshing nearly 40 years, and the market’s expectation of an increase in the Fed’s interest rate. Despite US Federal Reserve officials’ earlier plans to raise 50 basis points in June, according to the Wall Street Journal, the Fed’s officials may have announced 75 basis points in the early morning of Beijing 16.
“在美联储加息缩表，全球流动性趋紧之下，风险偏好较高的资产下跌幅度也会较大，比特币既是这类资产。”承珞资本合伙人徐泯穗对时代周报记者表示，区块链发展十余年来，在为数不多的有效的应用场景中，比特币算是最广为人知的一个。比特币下跌，也意味着整个区块链的长期发展前景存疑。
“In the US Federal Reserve's contractions, global liquidity is tightened, and higher-risk assets, such as Bitcoin, will fall more sharply.” The capital partner, Seo Yong-ho, told the Times Journal reporter that Bitcoin is the best known of the few effective applications in the last decade or so of the development of the block chain. The fall in bitcoin also means that the long-term development prospects of the entire block chain are questionable.
爆仓不断，前景悬疑
There's an explosion, and there's a doubt about the future.
据coin glass显示的数字货币全网合约爆仓信息显示， 截至6月14晚10点，过去24小时比特币爆仓金额高达4.08亿美元，折合人民币27.5亿；以太坊爆仓金额为2.67亿美元，折合人民币17.9亿。
According to coin glass, the data on the digital money-wide contract explosion show that by 10 p.m. on 14 June, the amount of Bitcoin explosion in the last 24 hours amounted to $408 million, equivalent to RMB 2.75 billion; and the amount of Etheria explosion was $267 million, equivalent to RMB 1.79 billion; & nbsp;
李楠表示，在比特币的交易模式中，有一种类似于期货的合约交易，玩家可以根据自己的判断选择做多或做空，由于带有杠杆属性，币的涨跌幅也会根据杠杆的倍数相应放大。当浮亏金额超过玩家缴纳的保证金，玩家需及时补足保证金，否则就会爆仓。
Li Nan states that, in a bitcoin-like transaction, there is a contract transaction where the player can choose to do more or more things according to his or her own judgement, and because of the leverage properties, the currency increases or drops are multiplied by the multiples of leverage. When the amount of the loss exceeds the bond paid by the player, the player has to make up the bond in time, otherwise the deposit will explode.
“相比期货，比特币合约交易的杠杆额度可以加得更大，甚至能加到100倍杠杆。”李楠指出，合约交易虽然收益相对较高，风险也很大。例如在100倍的杠杆下，只要比特币的波动超过1%就会爆仓。
“The leverage of a bitcoin contract transaction can be greater, or even 100 times greater, than futures.” Li Nan notes that contract transactions, while relatively high returns, are risky. Under 100-fold leverage, for example, a bitcoin fluctuations of more than 1% would blow up. & nbsp;
比特币暴跌，投资界大佬或也受到牵连。据公开信息显示，特斯拉于2021年年初买入15亿美元比特币，价格约为3.5万美元/枚。如今比特币已经跌至2.2万美元/枚之下，以此测算，仅在比特币的投资上，马斯克浮亏至少超过5亿美元。
According to public information, Tesla bought $1.5 billion in bitcoin at the beginning of 2021, at a price of about $35,000/me. Bitcoin has now fallen below $22,000/me, which means that Masco is losing at least $500 million on the investment in bitcoin alone. & nbsp;
着眼未来，比特币价格是否触底？逆风翻盘的可能性又有多大？
In view of the future, is the price of bitcoin below the bottom? How likely is it to flip against the wind?
“尽管是虚拟货币，比特币已经形成了对于主权货币和金融资产的影响。从国内看，对于比特币等虚拟加密货币，监管机构所持的态度是打击的。”黄震说。
“Although it's a virtual currency, bitcoin has had an impact on sovereign currencies and financial assets. Domestically, the regulators' attitude to virtual encrypted currencies, such as bitcoin, is counterproductive.” & nbsp;
事实上，我国政府已多次发文，提醒消费者防范虚拟货币交易炒作风险。去年7月份，人民银行营业管理部发布公告称，广大消费者应增强风险意识，不参与虚拟货币交易炒作活动，不盲目跟风虚拟货币相关投机行为，谨防个人财产及权益受损。
In fact, my Government has sent several letters to warn consumers against the risks of virtual currency transactions. In July last year, the Ministry of Business Management of the People’s Bank issued a communiqué stating that consumers at large should be more aware of the risks, should not be involved in virtual currency transactions, should not blindly follow the speculation associated with virtual currency, and should guard against the erosion of personal property and interests.
“当下，全世界范围内对于比特币的监管态势已经显现出来。待相关措施出台，还会加速比特币下跌。”黄震补充道。
“Now, worldwide regulation of Bitcoin has come to light. When measures are put in place, they will accelerate the fall of bitcoin.
（应采访对象要求，李楠为化名）
(As requested by the interviewer, Li Nan is an alias) & nbsp;
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