Tether无限印钞USDT，币市最大的雷何时爆发？

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来源：雪球App，作者： 区块链掘金者，（https://xueqiu.com/7702656828/145796513）

根据Whale Alert数据显示，自3月12日以来，Tether至少对USDT进行了18次增发，平均每天增发1.1次，其中单次增发数量以6000万枚USDT为主。Coinmarketcap的数据也显示，USDT的市值从1月初的41亿美金，增至46亿美金，并在3月份的最后几天，进一步增长至61亿美金。

According to Whale Alert data, since 12 March, Tethe has had at least 18 additional releases of to USDT, an average of 1.1 per day, with a single increase of 60 million USD. Coinmarkcap data also show that the market value of USDDT increased from $4.1 billion at the beginning of January to $4.6 billion and further increased to >b>6.1 billion in the last few days of March.

USDT市值迅猛增长的背后，是Tether无限量的印钞模式的开启。相比于美联储无限QE，来释放美元流动性，缓解股市和经济危机，Tether无限量增发，又是为了什么目的？

Behind the rapid increase in the market value of the USDT is the opening of Tethe's unlimited currency printing mode . Compared to the Fed's unlimited QE, to free up dollar liquidity, ease the stock market and economic crisis, and for what purpose?

我们从USDT发行机制来看，USDT是锚定美元的稳定币，意味着每发行1个USDT，就需要在银行存入1美元或以上的保证金。但在加密货币市场，USDT的市场价格一直处于波动状态，在行情剧烈波动的时候，因为供需关系出现了不同程度的溢价或折价现象。

According to the USDT distribution mechanism, USDT is a stable currency that anchors the dollar , meaning that each USDT issue requires a deposit of one dollar or more in the bank. But in the crypto-currency market, the market prices of the USDT have been volatile, at a time of high volatility, because of varying degrees of premium or discounts in the supply-demand relationship.

波动尚可解释，但短时间内无限量增发，其背后并没有太多需求层面的因素存在，近期BTC币价崩盘后，市场交易氛围明显下降，投资者参与的积极性大为降低，此种情况下，人为的增加USDT的流动性，除了收割市场外，找不到更多理由。

Volatile fluctuations can be explained, but there are not many demand-side factors behind that increase indefinitely in a short period of time. Following the recent collapse of the BTC currency, the market trading climate has noticeably declined and investor participation has been significantly reduced. In such cases, 's artificial increase in the liquidity of the USDT cannot be justified beyond the harvest market.

另外，无限量增发USDT，是否有足够的美元资产作保证金，也是个大问题。需要知道的是，从2018年开始，Tether就像开始陷入“市场操纵”风波之中，Tether在19年更换了关于储备金的描述，每一枚USDT并没有100%美元现金做保证。后续在纽约州总检察长办公室一举将Tether以及Bitfinex告上了法庭后，Tether也承认并没有100%的美元资金储备，来保证USDT兑付的正常运行。

In addition, it is a big question whether there are sufficient dollar assets to provide security. It is important to know that since 2018, Tether has been caught up in a “market manipulation” wave, and in 19 has changed the description of reserves, and each USDT has not had a 100% cash guarantee. Following the prosecution of Tether and Bitfinex by the New York State Attorney General's Office, Tethe also admitted that there was no 100% reserve of the dollar to ensure that the USDT was working properly.

因为历史原因，作为现实法币和加密资产之间流通的中介USDT获得了快速发展，并成为了目前稳定币市场的老大，并且在市场陷入下跌时，被投资者当做避险来使用。但USDT引起的信任危机，将成为加密货币市场潜在的最大的雷，一旦爆发，其对市场的冲击性和损失无法限量。

For historical reasons, the USDT, the intermediary in the movement of de facto French currency and encrypted assets, has developed rapidly and has become the leader of the current stable currency market and has been used by investors as a flight risk when the market falls. But the crisis of trust caused by USDT will be the biggest potential mine in the encrypted currency market, and its impact and loss on the market will be unlimited if it erupts.

此次无限量的增发USDT，虽然短时并没有引起市场太多的热度，但这本身也说明币圈市场目前的窘境，投资者交易的活跃性已经降至了冰点，现实很严峻。此时Tether靠疯狂印发USDT开启抢劫模式，无疑会让暴雷的几率大为提前。

This limitless increase in USDT, while not causing too much heat in the market at short notice, is in itself an indication of the current dilemma in the currency market, where investor activity has fallen to an ice point, and the reality is dire. At this point, Tether’s frenzied publication of USDT to open up a pattern of robbery will undoubtedly pre-empt thunderstorms.

因市场原因形成的东西，也需要靠市场来进行调节。去年因为Facebook推出了Libra白皮书，引发了全世界的关注和探讨，央行数字货币在这一时期被加速推了出来。央行数字货币一旦落地应用，首先冲击的便是Tether的USDT，不仅是市场份额的冲击，还有USDT面临的强监管的冲击风险，届时将是USDT的生死时刻。

What is created for market reasons also needs to be regulated by the market. Last year, the White Paper Libra was launched by

而在这之前，USDT凭借其市场份额还能维持些时日，但我们要认识到其中蕴藏的巨大风险，居安思危，通过不定期的将手中的USDT换成BTC或是其他受监管的稳定币，甚至是卖出换成法币来规避风险，而不要等到雪崩来临时才追悔莫及。

Until then, with its market share, the USDT would have been able to sustain for some time, but we need to recognize the great risks that lie in it, and we need to be aware that avoids risk by swapping its hand for BTC or other regulated stable currencies, even selling them into French, rather than waiting for the avalanche to happen.

回到行情上，BTC昨天凌晨冲击6600美金失败后，短时处于6350-6500美金区间窄幅整理走势。这和外部股市的走势保持同步，在一些列救市政策出台后，股市由之前的连续暴跌转为了缩量整理走势，BTC区间内的走势便可以理解。

Back to the situation, BTC failed to hit $6,600 in the early hours of yesterday, and was in a narrow position of $6350-6500. This kept pace with the trend in the external stock market, which, after some bailout policies, shifted from a continuous collapse of the stock market to a downward trend, which is understandable in the BTC sector.

早间8点短暂的下跌放量，打破了之前的窄幅整理区间，整体行情短时偏空。但我们需要注意的是，突发的下跌行情，是因为合约市场在8点多时段内释放了大量的买入卖出量能所致，同时永续合约资金费率又出现了了8点突然向上插针后跌落0轴之下的现象，说明短时的行情仍不在现货市场，而是由合约市场主导。

The brief drop of 8 a.m. in the morning, breaking the previous narrow consolidation zone, the whole movement was short-lived. But what we need to note is that the sudden drop was due to the large volume of buying and selling power released by the contract market in excess of 8 p.m. and the sudden drop of 0-axis by 8 p.m. in the contract rate, which suggests that the short-time movement of is still not in the spot market, but is dominated by the contract market.

既然是突发行情，因为资金费率引起，我们便需要留意短时行情的延续性问题。早间最低下探至6253美金后，并没有进一步下跌，而是围绕着小时线MA60均线做整理走势，量能也同步缩小，行情偏整理走势，并没有走出来。

In case of sudden movements, we need to be aware of the continuing problem of short-term behaviors because of the cost rate. After the lowest detection of $6253 in the morning, there was no further decline, but rather a consolidation of the average line of MA60 around the hour line, and the volume was shrunk simultaneously, and .

短时以6200-6300美金为支撑，跌破后会直接去到5700-6000美金区间，再次确认底部的支撑情况；不破支撑则继续盘整，以6400美金为区间压力，如果能突破，那么早间的下跌便收了回来，整体上就可以偏多看待，后续有概率继续冲击6600美金及之上的6900-7000美金区间压力。

The short term, supported by $6200-6300, would go straight to the US$ 5700-6000 area and confirm the underlying support situation; if the support was not broken, it would continue to be scalded, with $6,400 as pressure, and if it could be broken, the early fall would come back, which could be viewed in a more general way, with the probability that it would continue to hit US$ 6,600 and the US$ 6900-7000 above.

4小时级别，盘面其实是面临下行压力的，今天早间的下跌还是造成了部分影响，K线由围绕着MA60均线运行，变成了受MA60均线压制的格局。对于MA60均线来说，对行情是起到支撑和阻力的作用的，没有放量突破此区间，反而是在均线附近徘徊的时间越长，是行情反弹受阻并走弱的信号，则较大概率面临继续下跌的风险，因此须提防圆弧形走势的风险，谨慎操作。

At 4-hour level, the plate is actually under downward pressure and the early fall today has had a partial impact, with the Kline running from the MA60 memorized line to a pattern silenced by the MA60 memorized line. provides support and resistance to the MA60 membrane, does not allow it to break through the area, but rather the longer it spends near the memorized line, is the signal that it is blocked and weak , and the greater probability is the risk that it will continue to fall, so that the risk of movement of the circle arc must be raised and handled with caution.

最后，今晚20点，我将在区块掘金者社群现身解答小伙伴们的问题，有各种关于币市的疑问，可以在留言区提出来，晚上一起分享哈。

Finally, at 20 p.m. tonight, I will come to the community of gold diggers in the block to answer the questions of our little partners. There are a variety of questions about the currency market that can be raised in the message area and shared at night.

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