来源：LongHash
Source: LongHash
最近一波比特币币价暴跌可能让许多投资者都感到担忧。但是当我们把比特币视为一种投资时，这种下跌究竟意味着什么？为了探索答案，我们研究了比特币价格的历史走势。
The recent sharp fall in the price of a bitcoin may be a source of concern for many investors. But when we see bitcoin as an investment, what does that decline mean? To explore the answer, we have studied historical trends in bitcoin prices.
截至本文撰稿时间，比特币价格为7112.28美元。这比几周前的价格低了很多，但根据Coinbase上的历史数据，这个价位仍然高于比特币生命周期中差不多410天的历史收盘价。
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price was $7112.28. This is much lower than the price a few weeks ago, but according to historical data on Coinbase, this price is still higher than the historical collection of approximately 410 days of Bitcoin’s life cycle.
从2009年1月3日比特币诞生到2019年11月5日已经有3978天，因此，比特币只有410天是一种不良投资资产听起来是件好事。毕竟，比特币在其诞生以来的3978天中有3568天是一笔不错的投资。这几乎占它已经存在的总天数的90％！
With 3978 days since the birth of Bitcoin on 3 January 2009 and 5 November 2019, it sounds like a good thing that Bitcoin only 410 days is a bad investment asset. After all, it's a good investment of 3,568 days out of 3978 days since its birth. This is almost 90% of the total number of days it already exists!
分析 | 尽管算力增加Argo Blockchain 1月开采效率仍高于上月:伦交所上市挖矿公司Argo Blockchain发布最新运营情况。该公司于2020年1月开采了247个比特币，产生了163万英镑收入（基于每日外汇汇率和BTC价格）。尽管算力增加，但1月份的开采效率仍高于上个月。该公司目前的生产量为16,500台，代表着630 petahash（PH）的总采矿能力。（ADVFN）[2020/2/4]
Analysis, although arithmetical efficiency increased by Argo Blockchain in January was still higher than last month: Argo Blockchain, a mining company listed at Lun Yui, issued an update on its operations. The company mined 247 bitcoins in January 2020, generating revenues of £1.16 million (based on the daily exchange rate and BTC prices). Despite the increase in arithmetic power, the mining efficiency in January was still higher than last month. The company currently produces 16,500 units, representing the total mining capacity of 630 petahash (PH).
另一方面，410个“亏损”日—即比特币收盘价格低于撰稿当日价格的日子—也是呈上升趋势的。截至今年七月，比特币只有60天是一笔不良投资。现在，这个数字增长了近七倍。
On the other hand, the 410 “deficit” days – that is, the days when the price of the Bitcoin is lower than the price at the date of writing – are also on the rise. By July this year, Bitcoins had only 60 days of bad investment.
声音 | Libra协会成员：尽管战略并未敲定 但Libra将在2020年推出:Facebook（FB.O）旗下加密货币Libra协会成员：尽管战略并未敲定，但Libra将在2020年推出。[2019/12/19]
Voice Libra member: Although the strategy has not been finalized, Libra will be launched in 2020: Facebook (FB.O) member of the Society Libra, an encrypted currency: although the strategy has not been finalized, Libra will be launched in 2020. [2019/12/19]
不幸的是，以撰稿日的价格为基准，尽管到目前为止比特币在90％的时间内是一项不错的投资，这并不意味着90％的比特币持有者都能够通过比特币投资获得收益。与早期相比，最近才购买比特币的人要多得多。而由于比特币近期价格的走高，因此大多新近买家更可能是亏损的。
Unfortunately, using the price of the writing date as a benchmark, even though bitcoin has so far been a good investment for 90% of the time, this does not mean that 90% of bitcoin holders will be able to earn their profits through bitcoin investments. Compared to earlier times, far more people have recently purchased bitcoin.
实际上，对于比特币购买者来说，2019年是尤其残酷的一年—在今年迄今为止的329天内，比特币有190天是一笔不良投资。换句话说，到目前为止，2019年大约有58%的时间内，比特币的收盘价格是低于11月25日的价格的。
Indeed, 2019 was a particularly cruel year for Bitcoin buyers – 190 days in the 329 days to date this year was a bad investment. In other words, about 58% of the time so far in 2019, Bitcoin’s closing price was below that of November 25.
动态 | 尽管加密市场暴跌 澳大利亚加密货币投资热情不降反升:据btcmanager报道，自今年1月份以来，加密货币市场暴跌550亿美元，但澳大利亚的加密货币投资者却并未受其影响，投资人数增加了两倍。[2018/9/9]
Despite the collapse of the encryption market, Australia’s encrypt currency investment has continued unabated: according to btcmanager, the encrypt currency market has plunged by $55 billion since January of this year, but Australia’s encrypted currency investors have not been affected by it, with investments having tripled.[2018/9/9]
2018年的糟糕程度紧随其后，在365天的167天中，购买比特币的人可能会亏。2017年有53个“亏损”日。。
The year 2018 was immediately followed by 167 days of 365 days when the purchasers of the bitcoin were likely to lose. There were 53 “deficit” days in 2017.
在目前的价位，究竟有多少人是亏损的？据加密数据公司IntoTheBlock估计，如果在11月25日卖出，比特币持有者中仍有56％的人是盈利的，8％的人大体上不赚不赔，其余36％则会亏损。这个估计的根据是本文撰稿时的比特币价格以及比特币钱包中保存的代币购买均价。
Into TheBlock estimates that 56% of Bitcoin holders would still be profitable, 8% would be largely unprofitable, and the remaining 36% would be lost. This estimate is based on the price of bitcoin at the time of writing and the average purchase price of coins kept in Bitcoin wallets.
根据Blockchain.com，目前有超过4300万个比特币钱包。根据IntotheBlock的数据推算，目前有超过1570万个钱包内的代币价值低于其购买成本价。当然，许多比特币钱包都已经不再活跃或丢失了，而且很多人都有多个钱包，因此当前亏损的实际投资者的真实数量几乎能肯定要低得多。
According to Blockchain.com, there are currently more than 43 million bits of wallets. According to IntotheBlock data, there are currently more than 15.7 million wallets with a nominal value below their purchase cost.
尽管可能有数百万个钱包受到影响，但对大多数投资者来说不会有严重的亏损。在410个“亏损”日里，较高位的“买入”价格与目前较低的“卖出”价格之间的中位数差额刚刚超过2000美元。
Although millions of wallets may be affected, there will be no significant losses for most investors. In 410 “deficit” days, the median difference between the higher “buy-in” price and the current lower “sale” price is just over $2,000.
但是钱包所有者必须至少持有1个BTC时，才会产生这么多的亏损情况。根据BitInfoCharts的数据，在所有的比特币钱包中，90%以上的钱包帐户中只有0.1个，甚至更少的BTC。因此，大多数投资者的损失可能低于200美元。当然，这些损失只有在持币者以本文给定价格卖出比特币的情况下才会成立。
But the wallet owner has to hold at least one BTC in order to have such a loss. According to BitInfoCharts, of all the Bitcoins wallets, only 0.1, or even less, is in more than 90% of the wallets. Thus, most investors may lose less than $200.
当然，这反映的究竟是一种趋势还是暂时的现象取决于比特币价格接下来的走向。这些数字都不是一成不变的；如果比特币的价格反弹到8000美元，那么“亏损”日的数字将减少到300多。如果它能够再次攀升到10000美元以上，那么“亏损”日将进一步减少到150天左右。
Of course, whether this reflects a trend or a temporary phenomenon depends on the next direction of the Bitcoin price. These figures are not static; if Bitcoin’s price rebounds to $8,000, the number of “deficit” days will be reduced to over 300. If it rises again to over $10,000, the “deficit” day will be further reduced to about 150 days.
LongHash
，用数据读懂区块链。
, read block chains with data.
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