在北京IT人士聚集的中关村，李挺（化名）是一名区块链的资深从业者，也是比特币最早的一批玩家。12月8日凌晨，GDAX的报价一度突破19000美元，在币圈了炸开了锅，号称“一币一卡罗拉”的时代已经到来。GDAX是美国主流比特币交易平台Coinbase旗下的产品，有报价和交易的功能，用户数超过1000多万。
In Beijing’s middle village, where IT gathers, Li Jian is a senior practitioner of the block chain and the oldest player in Bitcoin. In the early hours of December 8, GDAX’s offer went over $19,000, blowing up pots in currency circles, known as “One dollar a carola.” The GDAX is a product under the banner of Coinbase, the mainstream United States Bitcoin trading platform, with more than 10 million users.
李挺虽然很早就开始接触比特币，但是依然说“自己错过了很多机会”。在2013年底，国内最大的比特币交易平台之一火币网刚成立的时候，创始人李林推荐他买比特币。那时候比特币的报价还不到1000元人民币。经济学专业出身的他觉得，“这东西风险很大，价格波动很大，对它也不了解。”
Lee, although beginning to contact Bitcoin early, said, "He missed a lot of opportunities." At the end of 2013, when one of the largest bitcoin trading platforms in the country was established, Li Lin, the founder, recommended him for bitcoin. At that time, Bitcoin was offered less than RMB 1,000. He thought, "This thing is very risky, price volatile, and he doesn't know it."
这是一个拥有高学历背景的玩家在当时那个时间节点做出来的慎重选择。在李挺熟悉的圈内人中，买了比特币长期不动的人特别少，更多时候，“买了一些，1万元变2万元就觉得很多了，就卖掉了，也有可能涨到5万元，也有可能降到3000元。总的来说，过去做短线交易，赚得不多，盈亏概率差不多。”
This was a prudent choice made by a player with a high academic background at that point in time. Among Lee's familiar insiders, there were very few who bought bitcoin for a long time, and more often, “bought some, $10,000 to $20,000 and felt a lot, sold it, sold it up to $50,000, and probably dropped to $3,000.
比特币价格今年年内飙涨了十几倍，从年初的不到1000美元到现在的16000美元左右。但市场很容易遗忘，2015年比特币经历了漫长的熊市，很多玩家退出市场，也有很多人挖矿亏损离场。拉到更长的周期看，2010年至2011年比特币价格跌去93%，2013至 2015年比特币价格跌去84%。如今市场一片向好，对于节节攀高的币价，圈外的人或犹豫、或踌躇、或后悔地表示看不懂，而圈内人一片亢奋，涨价的原理少有人说得明白，不过，似乎圈内的人也并不关心。
Bitcoin prices rose more than tenfold this year, from less than $1,000 at the beginning of the year to about $16,000 now. But the market is easy to forget, with Bitcoin going through a long bear market in 2015, with many players leaving the market, and many people digging out.
看不懂的价格
从今年开始，李挺不做短线交易了，他发现无论是1万元还是3万元人民币，他都卖亏了。
From this year on, Lee didn't make short-term deals, and he found out that he had lost both the RMB 10,000 and the RMB 30,000.
作为一种去中心化（即不像美元一样有政府信用做背书）、总量恒定（2100万个）的虚拟货币，它只存在于炒币、囤币和一批做区块链技术的专业人士的虚拟钱包中，也没有一个类似的可比的参照系统去评估它到底该值多少钱。面对高涨的价格，甚至有舆论将它比作17世纪荷兰的郁金香泡沫，当时一株郁金香卖到十几头公牛的高价。
As a virtual currency that is decentralized (i.e., not backed by government credit like the dollar), constant in total (21 million), it exists only in the virtual purses of a group of professionals who build coins, hoards, and block chains, and there is no comparable reference system to evaluate how much it is worth. In the face of high prices, there is public opinion that it is compared to a tulip bubble in the Netherlands in the 17th century, when a tulip was sold to more than a dozen bulls.
比特币到底该值多少钱？经济观察报记者从专业人士以及目前诸多关于比特币估值的文章看，业内现在习惯于用需求与供给的定价理论来分析。
How much is it worth for Bitcoin? According to professionals and many current articles on Bitcoin valuations, the industry is now accustomed to using price-fixing theories of demand and supply.
从Blockchain的数据来看，比特币的用户从最开始的2个，发展到今天的接近2000万个。早期，2014年以前其用户数量一直特别少，2015年左右维持在500多万用户的水平，2016年开始，随着价格的暴涨，用户数量也迅速增加。Blockchain统计的是比特币交易的钱包数，每一个虚拟钱包都存有一定数量的比特币，相当于一个账户，一个用户可以拥有多个账户，每个用户申请钱包的数量没有限定。
According to Blockchain, the number of users in Bitcoin has grown from the first two, to nearly 20 million today. In the early years, the number of users had been particularly low until 2014, remained at over 5 million users in around 2015, and since 2016, as prices soared, the number of users has increased rapidly. Blockchain counted the number of wallets traded in Bitcoin, with each virtual wallet containing a certain amount of bitcoins, equivalent to one account, one account with multiple accounts, and the number of wallets applied by each user was unlimited.
在国内，比特币的圈子更小。据李挺估算，目前炒币的人也就几百万人左右，圈内的人都是专业人士，大致可以分为以下几类：火币网、OK-Coin之类大的比特币交易平台工作人员和用户，HaoBTC、BTC、蚂蚁矿池等几大生产比特币矿池的矿工、专注区块链技术研发和运用的专业人士，关注比特币的垂直媒体、社交圈。圈子外的人则是鱼龙混杂，借比特币之名搞传销、诈骗的也不少，“这部分人，现在监管趋严之后，很多都退出来了”。
At the domestic level, Bitcoin has a smaller circle. According to Lee's estimate, there are only a few millions of people who are currently squeezing the coins, and the people in the circle are professionals, and they can be divided into the following categories: people working on large bitcoin trading platforms such as the Trench Network, OK-Coin and others, mine workers producing bitcoin ponds such as HaoBTC, BTC, ants' ponds, professionals focusing on vertical media, social circles, etc., outside the circle, who are mixed with fish, who sell it under the name of bitcoin, and fraud, which “many of these people have now left after the tightening of regulations”.
记者咨询火币网目前的用户数量，对方表示不便透露。从李林之前的公开表态来看，火币网“已经为来自全球超过130个国家的数百万用户”服务。火币网的用户数量应该是在百万级别。不过，今年9月份，央行要求境内比特币交易所制定无风险清退方案，9月底前关停。这对中国三大比特币交易平台冲击巨大——OK-Coin、比特币中国和火币网交易量曾经占据中国比特币交易平台规模的60%，彼时，通过国内交易所交易的比特币占全球交易规模的30%。
However, in September this year, the central bank asked the domestic Bitcoin exchange to develop a risk-free exit program, which was shut down by the end of September. This hit China’s three main bitcoin trading platforms – OK-Coin, Bitcoin China, and Hotcoin, which used to account for 60% of China’s Bitcoin trading platforms, and 30% of the world’s transactions at the same time.
从国家互联网金融安全技术专家委员会监测的数据来看，国内比特币交易平台（场内交易）关停之后，场外交易平台加速上线。类似“淘宝”模式，买家“拍下”一定数量的比特币后，平台将卖家的比特币锁定，买家完成付款，卖方确认交易成功，平台自动释放锁定的比特币给买方，平台作为中间人收取一定比例的手续费。从网站服务器所在地看，上述平台网站主要分布在香港、美国、日本等地。截至11月25日，支持比特币兑人民币（BTC-CNY）的C2C场外交易平台已达21家，上线时间集中在10月下旬到11月。
According to the data monitored by the National Technical Expert Committee on Internet Financial Security, after the closure of the domestic Bitcoin trading platform (off-site transactions), the off-site trading platform was speeded up. Similar to the “fouling” model, when buyers “shooted” a certain amount of bitcoin, the platform locked the seller's bitcoin, the buyer completed the payment, the seller confirmed the success of the transaction, the platform automatically released the locked bitcoin to the buyer, and the platform charged a certain percentage of the fee as an intermediary.
在李挺看来，禁止了交易平台之后，一些小白用户就进不来了，只留下了专业人士，很多平台都转移到了海外。李挺表示，现在交易比特币通过场外市场，或者朋友之间协商议价，或者找矿工直接买，“现在还有很多群，高价收币，赚差价，全是广告，广告太多了”。
In Li’s view, after banning the trading platform, some white users were unable to enter, leaving only professionals behind, and many of the platforms moved abroad. Li’s saying that now the trading of bitcoins is going through the off-site market, or negotiated among friends, or directly with the miners, “there are lots of them now, high-priced, low-payers, all ads, too many ads.”
解释何为矿工，不得不说的是比特币的底层技术——区块链。一段时间内比特币的交易打包成一个区块，记录了这段时间比特币交易的数据，每个区块都连接到上一个区块，依次相链形成区块链。比特币全网平均每十分钟生产一个区块。
To explain what is a miner, one has to say about bitcoin's bottom technology, the block chain. For a period of time, bitcoin's transactions were packaged into a block, recording the data on bitcoin's transactions during that time, and each block was connected to the previous block, forming a block chain in sequence. Bitcoin produces a block every 10 minutes.
所有的矿工都在通过哈希运算来争夺比特币区块的打包权，按照莱比特矿池江卓尔的解释来说，就相当于扔硬币，“获胜唯一的诀窍就是提高每秒扔硬币的次数，一个每秒能扔100亿次硬币（做100亿次哈希计算）的节点，抢到打包权的概率就是每秒仍1亿次硬币节点的100倍”，提高算力是关键。
All miners are competing for bagging rights in the Bitcoin block through Hashi calculations, which, according to Lebitt's pond, is equivalent to throwing coins, “the only trick to win is to raise the number of coins to be thrown per second, a node that can throw 10 billion coins per second (taking al-Hash 10 billion) and the probability of winning a pack is 100 times the number of coin nodes per second”, and it is crucial to increase the capacity of the calculus.
矿工得到的奖励也是比特币生产的方式。现在挖矿的难度越来越大，最初每个区块奖励50个比特币，之后每经过21万个区块奖励将减半一次，直到2140年左右区块奖励不足1聪（比特币的最小交易单位，1比特币等于1亿聪）为止，彼时区块奖励总和为2100万个比特币，达到供应的上限。比特币创始人中本聪最早用个人电脑就可以挖比特币，最初他挖出来的100万个比特币还趴在账户里没动过。
The miners are also being rewarded with bitcoin production. Mining is now becoming more difficult, starting with 50 bitcoins per block, which will be halved once for every 210,000 blocks passed until around 2140 (the smallest trading unit of bitcoins, 1 bitcoins equals 100 million bitcoins), with a total of 21 million bitcoins, reaching the maximum supply limit. The founder of bitcoins could have dug bitcoins with a personal computer as early as he could, and the first one million bitcoins he dug were not moving in the accounts.
现在对设备的要求高了很多。据记者了解，现在每挖出一个区块奖励12.5个比特币，平均每挖一个比特币的成本在2万元人民币左右，包括机器的投入、场地费用、电费等等。
The demand for equipment is now much higher. According to journalists, 12.5 bits of bitcoins are now rewarded for each block that has been dug up, at an average cost of RMB 20,000 per bit, including machine inputs, site costs, electricity, etc.
一端是暴涨的需求，一端是恒定的供应量，李挺认为，“不像国家发行的货币是通胀的，越发越多，比特币是通缩的，通缩的东西必然上涨，未来的价格一定会在上涨”。虽然也有很多朋友咨询李挺怎么买，李挺也很少去极力推荐，“价格波动太大，可以投资，但是要控制风险，不能把所有身家都投入进去。”
On the one hand, there is a surge in demand, and on the other, there is a constant supply, and Lee argues that “not unlike the currency issued by the country is inflation, more and more, bitcoin is deflationary, the deflation is bound to rise, and prices are bound to rise in the future.” While there are many friends who consult with Lee how to buy it, Li rarely recommends it, “the price is too volatile to be invested, but the risk must be managed and not all the individuals involved in it.”
圈里圈外的博弈
对于比特币这一阶段的暴涨，很多分析都指向了美国芝加哥商品交易所（以下简称“芝商所”）即将推出比特币期货。全球最大的期货交易所介入比特币市场，为传统的金融机构投资比特币提供了一个可靠的交易渠道，为这些机构的另类投资提供了一个新的选项。
Much analysis of the surge in Bitcoin has pointed to the upcoming introduction of Bitcoin futures by the United States' Chicago Commodity Exchange (hereinafter referred to as the “Beverage House”). The involvement of the world’s largest futures exchanges in the Bitcoin market provides a reliable channel for traditional financial institutions to invest in bitcoins and offers a new option for alternative investment by these institutions.
芝商所将于12月18日正式推出比特币期货BTC。芝商所CEOTerryDuffy坦言，和美国商品期货委员会（CFTC）经历了漫长、深入的研究之后才决定推出比特币期货，但是其也知道比特币是一个充满未知、不断发展的新兴市场，需要和美国的监管机构和投资者紧密合作才能推动这个市场的发展。
The BTC of Bitcoin will be officially launched on December 18. The CEO Terry Duffy of Chico, and the United States Commodity Futures Commission (CFTC), after lengthy and in-depth research, decided to launch the Bitcoin futures, but they also know that Bitcoin is an unknown and evolving emerging market that needs close cooperation with US regulators and investors in order to promote it.
运行初期，比特币期货交易有诸多限制，一手合约5个比特币，要求35%的保证金，限制了最高的日内交易价格。BTC的参考价格基于芝商所推出的比特币参考汇率（BRR，综合国际各大交易所平台得出的比特币/美元汇率），日内交易价格不能超过参考价格的20%。
At the beginning of the operation, Bitcoin futures transactions were subject to a number of restrictions, with a single contract of five bitcoins, requiring a 35 per cent bond, limiting the maximum price for intra-day transactions. BTC’s reference price was based on the Bitcoins reference exchange rate (BRR, a combination of international major exchange platforms), which could not exceed 20 per cent of the reference price.
比特币期货的推出，实际上不受比特币实际交割量的限制，CFT50高级学术顾问、中国国际期货有限公司副董事长王永利认为，可以让更多的人参与，更广泛地表达对比特币价格的看法或意愿，更好地寻找符合大多数人预期的“合理价格”。王永利进一步解释道，比特币价格变动幅度非常大，符合纳入期货交易的属性。推出期货交易，实际上是将比特币纳入规范市场交易和管理，并不会像不少人想象的那样，就一定会推动其价格大幅上涨。
The introduction of Bitcoin futures is practically not limited by the actual delivery of Bitcoins. Wang Yongli, Senior Academic Advisor for CFT50 and Deputy Chairman of China International Futures Ltd., argued that it would be possible to involve more people, more broadly expressing their views or wishes on the price of bitcoins, and better looking for “reasonable prices” that most people expected. Wang Yongli further explained that Bitcoin prices changed so widely that they were consistent with the characteristics of futures transactions. The introduction of futures transactions would in fact have incorporated bitcoins into the regulation of market transactions and management, and would not have contributed, as many would have imagined, to a substantial increase in their prices.
在芝商所的所有产品中，价格波动最大的是天然气。芝商所高级经济分析师埃里克·诺兰在最新的分析中表示，天然气短期内不会因为价格的上涨而供给增多，但长期来看，供给会慢慢增多。比特币比天然气更进一步，价格涨跌，短期和长期它的供给都是不变的，几乎是完美的非弹性供给商品，这类商品，对应同等的需求变化，它价格的波动就会更大。
In its latest analysis, Eric Nolan, a senior economic analyst at the shop, said that natural gas supply would not increase as a result of price increases in the short term, but in the long run it would increase slowly. Bitcoin would go even further than natural gas, prices would go up and down, supplies would remain constant in the short and long term, and there would be almost perfect inelastic supply of commodities, which would be subject to similar changes in demand.
对于即将推出的比特币期货，华尔街并不情愿。根据英国《金融时报》报道，美国期货市场游说集团（Fu-turesIndustryAssociation）起草的一份文件显示，希望芝商所可以延迟比特币期货的推出，担心冒然推出会受到比特币期货违约风险的冲击。华尔街大型投行都是该集团的成员。
Wall Street is reluctant about the forthcoming bitcoin futures. According to the British Financial Times, a paper prepared by the American Futures Market Lobby (Fu-turesIndustryAssociation) shows that it is hoped that the cheese shop can delay the introduction of bitcoin futures, fearing that the roll-out will be hit by the risk of Bitcoin futures default.
瑞银集团在最新报告中向其客户发出警告称，比特币等加密数字货币正处于“投机性泡沫”中。最近以来加密数字货币的上升趋势是没有基本面为支持的。该行将投资者目前蜂拥投资加密数字货币的形势比作17世纪时的“荷兰郁金香球茎”泡沫、南海泡沫以及互联网泡沫。此前，摩根大通（105.93， 1.31， 1.25%）CEO杰米·戴蒙（JamieDimon）也已明确对加密数字货币提出了质疑。
In its latest report, the Swift Group warned its clients that encrypted digital currencies, such as Bitcoin, were in “speculation bubbles.” The recent upward trend in encrypted digital currencies was not supported by fundamentals.
瑞银分析师写道：“（加密数字货币）在现实世界中将可带来的利益需要几年时间才能实现，即使是那些‘传道者’也持此观点。加密数字货币相对较高的流通量加之在现实世界里有限的用途，意味着许多买家正在寻求投机性利益，他们永远都不会打算使用加密数字货币在现实世界里进行交易。泡沫的另一种特征——基本价值是最难以评估的，因为与政府支持下的货币有所不同的是，没有哪种加密数字货币的背后有着经济作为支撑。”
Swift analysts wrote: “The benefits that will come from (encrypted digital money) in the real world will take years to realize, even for those ‘divideers’ who believe it. The relatively high circulation of encrypted digital money, combined with its limited use in the real world, means that many buyers are seeking speculative benefits, and they never intend to trade in encrypted digital money in the real world. Another feature of the bubble – the basic value – is the most difficult to assess, because unlike government-backed currencies, there is no type of encrypted digital currency that is backed by an economy.”
不论短期价格如何暴涨，某比特币大型交易平台工作人员告诉记者，中国市场关于比特币定价的话语权“基本丧失了”，“我们平台K线图式的集合竞价交易都下线了，这就意味着中国已经没有比特币的定价权了，现在平台上只剩下场外交易，类似淘宝拍单的线下交易。这一轮比特币的暴涨，日韩最为活跃。在对风险事件的反映上，比特币作为避险资产比黄金更敏感。黄金作为避险资产，由于和美元的跷跷板效应，远不如比特币。”
Regardless of how short-term prices surged, one of the staff of a big bitcoin trading platform told journalists that the Chinese market's words about Bitcoin pricing were “essentially lost”, and that “the pool bid deal of our platform's K-line map is downlined, which means that China no longer has the price of Bitcoin, and now only has off-the-shelf transactions on the platform, such as under-the-book deals. This round of bitcoins is the most active in Japan and Korea. Bitcoin is more sensitive as a hedge asset than gold in response to a risk event. Gold, as a hedge asset, is far less than a bitcot because of the slab effect of the dollar.”
未来币价何去何从？从过往的价格走势来看，交易费用的调整往往是比特币牛熊市的前兆。2010年底，比特币交易费用由2美元增长到30美元，那时候币价也在30美元左右，随后币价遭遇了93%的大跌；2013年初，比特币交易费用又上涨到了80美元，彼时币价在1000美元左右。现在，比特币已经暴涨到了10000多美元，交易费用也回调到60-70美元，这个价格能支撑多高的交易费用，埃里克·诺兰还不知道，但是相信在明年最晚后年市场就会给出一个答案了。
What is the future value of the currency? In view of past price trends, the adjustment of transaction costs is often a precursor to the Bitcoin Cove market. At the end of 2010, the Bitcoin transaction cost increased from $2 to $30, when the price was around $30, followed by a 93-per-cent fall in currency prices; at the beginning of 2013, the Bitcoin transaction cost rose to $80, and the price was around $1,000. Now, Bitcoin has skyrocketed to over $10,000, and the transaction cost has gone back to $60-70, a price that can support the high transaction costs. Eric Nolan does not know yet, but believes that the market will give an answer by the end of next year.
疯狂上涨后比特币价格遭大幅暴跌，12月8日冲高到19000美元之后，GDAX网站比特币报价大幅回调，截至发稿降至15139美元，较日内最高价降幅超过20%。
After a sharp drop in Bitcoin prices following the insane rise, the GDAX website's Bitcoin offer was substantially reversed after it hit $19,000 on 8 December, dropping to $15139 by more than 20 per cent, the highest price in the day.
新浪科技公众号
New Wave Technology Public.
“掌”握科技鲜闻 （微信搜索techsina或扫描左侧二维码关注）
"Knock on the technology" is anecdotal.
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