口袋里钞票数量决定今天的心情，帐面上正负比例决定投资的对错，市场是先有了人，再有需要处理的物，物有价值，有价值就有波动，然后有了市场，有了一夜暴富的神话，有了倾家荡产的失败者，有管理市场的人，有分析市场的人，有投机的人，也有一大批忠实的投资者，经过上百年的心路历程，慢慢发展到了现在，有了股票，有了期货，有了基金...有了币市，从1.0玩法到现在的4.0玩法，每一次玩法的更新，均是金融界一大突破，每一次衍生都体现出老市场的不足，市场本身没有好坏，有的只有疯狂的人。
The amount of money in the pocket determines today's mood, the positive and negative proportion of the account determines the right or wrong to invest. The market is where there are people, there are things to deal with, there is value, there is value, there is volatility, there is the market, there is the myth of one night's richness, there are losers in the market, there are market managers, there are analysts, there are speculators, there are a large number of faithful investors, after hundreds of years of hard work, there are now stocks, there are futures, there are funds... there are currency markets, from 1.0 to 4.0 to now, every update of the game is a big breakthrough in the financial world, every derivative reflects the inadequacy of the old market, the market itself is not bad, there are only crazy people.
币市三种投资者，你是第几种：
Three investors in the currency market, you're the first: .
第一种：是比特币最忠实粉丝，也是最早就踏入币市的人，这些人很多掌握着大量资金，有着聪明的头脑和自律，这类人中超过1000个比特币的人不在少数，他们目前的交易很简单，就是逢低买进，逢高出货，因为占有绝对资金优势，他们只做现货，每一次运作都能做到游刃有余。
The first is the biggest fan of Bitcoin and the first to enter the currency market, many of whom are in possession of large amounts of money, smart minds and self-discipline, and not a few of the more than 1,000 bitcoins of this type of person. Their current trade is simple, that is, when they buy low, when they get higher, because they have an absolute financial advantage, they do nothing but cash, and they can do more than anything in every operation.
第二种：是币市投机者，投资理念很杂，什么赚钱做什么，投资领域比较广泛，很多持有10个以上的比特币投资者，这部分人很多都是投机发家致富的，在去年上旬炒底成功的人不在少数，这里面大部分人常年混迹风险市场，有着充足的经验和足够的耐心，在别的市场需要三年才能达到目标，在币市也许只要3天就是得到，姿势又帅，赚钱又快，这类人赚的最多也是亏的最惨的一类，站在上百米顶层听风也包括这类人。
Second: the currency market speculators, the complex concept of what to do for money, the broad area of investment, the large number of investors with more than 10 bitcoins, many of whom have been rich by speculation, and the small number of people who have been successful by the end of the last year, most of whom have had enough experience and patience to be able to reach their targets in other markets, which may take only three days to obtain, be handsome and make money quickly, and who earn the most and the worst kind of money, including those who stand at the top of 100 metres.
我做了一个实验，做好风控方案，3次抄底或者抓顶，对一次就是暴赚，特别是牛市抄底，这类抄底抓顶行情每个月都会来个1-3次；这种投资不能经常搞，搞多了最后的结果都会跌落万丈深渊，有一句话叫凭运气赚的钱会凭实力亏下去，Easy come, easy go，交易本就是一个概率事件，多多少少占有很大运气，从古自今不变是人的贪欲，风险市场最不缺就是风险，你总有把持不住的时候，市场没有例外。夜路走过了，总会遇到鬼，少走夜路才可以避免。
I've done an experiment with wind control, three downs or grabs, one downs and one downs, especially in the cattle market, with one or three times a month of this kind; this kind of investment can't be done often, with the end result falling into the abyss, and there's a saying that the money made out of luck will be lost on strength. Easy come, easy go, the deal is a chance event, with a lot of luck. It's always the greed of people, the risk market is the least, and you always have the risk, and the market is the exception.
第三种：是大众投资者，典型的老韭菜和小韭菜，小韭菜对币圈知识了解甚少，对风险控制完全不能自律，投资路上更是一筹莫展，喜欢东搞一下，西搞一下，可以说是很迷茫吧，更可怕的是自负、恐惧实时伴随着。老韭菜虽然懂得多一些，但是很怂，导致该果断不果断，该放手一搏不敢搏，偶尔小赚小亏，呆在市场不开心，离开市场不甘心说的是老韭菜们。
The third is popular investors, typical old pickles and pickles, little knowledge of currency circles, complete self-regulation of risk controls, investment paths, a little bit of confusion, a little bit of confusion, a little bit of ego, a little fear in real time. Old pickles, though more sophisticated, are a bit of a drag that leads to a lack of determination, sometimes a small gain, a lack of pleasure in the market, and the fact that they leave the market is about old pickles.
小韭菜老韭菜是真的没希望了，不，减少错误才有希望：
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
很多人说我要是有钱我也不这么搞，我就做做现货，做做主流货币，但是没那么多钱，就想合约搏一搏。搏一搏说明你没底气，有底气就叫量化投资，市场投资者来自全世界，文化、知识、信仰...与众不同，但是市场是相同的，你面对不是行情，是人，你得先战胜你自己再去战胜别人。老唐总结了投资者在市场中常犯的几大错误。
A lot of people say that if I'm rich and I don't do this, I'll do it as a cash, as a mainstream currency, but if I don't have that much money, I'm going to have to make a deal. A fight means you have no bottom, and a bottom line is a quantitative investment. Market investors come from all over the world. Culture, knowledge, faith... but markets are the same.
1，抄底抓顶：很多人抓顶抓破头，抄底超破产，并不能说就不能抄底和抓顶，重要还是要讲究方法和周期行情强弱，明明很强势，你抓顶，明明很弱势你抄底，这不是跟自己钱过不去吗？
One, bottom grab: Many people scratch their heads, bottom busts their heads, bottom is too bankrupt to say that they can't take their heads off, or that it's important to look at the methods and cycles that are strong, you scratch them, you're weak, you're weak, you're weak, don't you have a problem with your own money?
行情破新高和破新低时，首先分清楚是急速行情还是慢性行情：
When it comes to breaking new heights and breaking new lows, it is clear whether it's a rush or a chronic one:
急速行情如果没有瞬间完成反转，出现反转信号，那说明还要延续，这个时候不能盲目入市，后面还会有二次冲高，再考虑入市，但是只能轻仓，防止3次冲高可以稍微加仓，没有3次冲高那就正好加仓。
If the rush is not instantaneously reversed and there is a reversal signal, that means that it will continue. It will not be possible to enter the market blindly at this time, and there will be a second run-off later, but only lightly, so as to prevent three surges, which would have been a small one.
慢性行情破位一定还会延续，这类行情往往走势很强烈，这个时候不能考虑抓顶抄底，等加速变成急速出现信号再考虑。反转形态很多我就不多说，网上都查得到，一要带好止损止盈，比如比特币你带2000点止损，止盈起码要看到5000点的空间，不然就不入市。一旦入市只要没有止损就一直拿下去，5000点利润空间很容易给到的，以太500点也是很容易的。
Chronic behaviors, which tend to be strong, cannot be considered at this time until the acceleration becomes a signal of rapidness. In reverse patterns, I do not say much, and I find them on the Internet, so that when you wear 2,000 points to stop damage, you have to see at least 5,000 points of space, or not. Once you enter the market, it is easy to take 5,000 points of profit, and too easy to get 500 points of profit.
2，不愿止损：这个问题相关的文章很多，有的散户见一次止损后没几天币价又涨了回来，下次就抱有侥幸心理不再止损，这是不行的。就我而言，决不容许出现超过10%的亏损。“截断亏损，让利润奔跑”，确是至理名言啊。但话又说回来，如果你没有自己的赢利模式，你的结局也就是买入，止损，再买入再止损。
2 - Do not want to stop loss: There are a lot of articles about this issue, some days after the breakup, and not days after the breakup, and the next time you'll have a chance not to stop. For me, no loss of more than 10% can be allowed. “Close the loss, let the profit run” is a good word. But then again, if you do not have your own profit model, you end up buying, stopping, buying, then stopping.
首先分清楚行情，箱体震荡行情可以把止损放大，但是不能超过2个交易日，震荡上行行情80%会冲高，相反则会走低。大盘震荡行情占据大多时候，所以大多时候是短线交易，短线交易你围绕支撑做多就行，为什么呢，因为大盘还处在强势期之中，做多安全些。
First of all, it is clear that a box shock can magnify the damage, but not more than two trading days, and 80% of the vibrating will go up, but it will go down. For the most part, it is short-line trading, so most of the time it is short-line trading, so you can do more support, why, because the plate is still in a strong state of power, and it is safer.
3，不敢追高：许多散户都有恐高症，认为价格已经涨上去了，再去追涨被套住了怎么办?其实币价的涨跌与价位的高低并没有必然的联系，关键在于“势”，我之前说过，比特币强势期是无量上涨，弱势期无限下跌，所以不要怕追高，到了6万就有可能破7万，看看近期的以太坊，只要你有空的念头它就涨不停，目前以太坊目前已经破了4000，这势头下个月之前会破5000。
Three, fearless of catching up: Many scattered households are afraid of rising prices, and how can they be trapped? Indeed, there is no inevitability between rising and falling prices, and the key is “tightness.” As I said before, Bitcoin has a limitless upswing and a weak downswing, so don’t be afraid of catching up and 60,000 may break 70,000, and look at the recent Ether Chamber, which is now 4,000 as long as you have a spare of time, and the momentum will be 5,000 by next month.
4，心理负担：做过交易的人都知道，交易时的心态和没交易的心态根本不同，连华尔街牛哼哼的资本运作大佬在交易的时候都伪装镇定，比如马斯克每次想运作之前都要在市场放放风，为啥？他怕他的目的达不到，所以说只要是人就都会这样，除非钱多的没地方花的人，或者就是想在币市作善事的人。所以说只要是交易都会有心理负担，不同的是一个能解决面临的问题，一个是不能解决当前的问题。当你不能解决当前面临的问题，最好的办法是离场休息。
4. Psychological burden: As anyone who makes a deal knows, there is a fundamental difference between the mindsets of the deal and those of the non-trading, and even the Wall Street grotesque capital operator pretends to be calm at the time of the deal, as in the case of Mr. Mask, who spends every time in the market before he wants to operate. He fears that his purpose will not be achieved, so the best way to do it is for people, unless they have money to spend, or they want to do good in the currency market. So as long as there is a psychological burden on the deal, the difference is one that solves the problem, one that does not solve the current problem. When you cannot solve the problem, the best way to do it is to leave the room.
资金的占比和心理负担是成正比率的，心理承受负担越重就越容易做出错误判断，因为主观意识过强就难免会忽略客观分析，这是不理智的。我建议大家每次交易手笔不能超过10%，每次交易可以你不带止盈，但是一定要带好止损，赢的时候大胆的赢，输的时候果断止损。
The ratio of money to the psychological burden is a positive one, and the greater the psychological burden, the easier it is to misjudge, because it is irrational to suggest that each transaction should not exceed 10% of the value of an objective analysis. I suggest that each transaction should be free, but it must be easy to stop the damage, win boldly when you win, and lose decisively.
最后说一点：赢的时候贪生怕死，输的时候视死如归，那么距离亏完本金的目标就很近了。
And finally, to say one thing: if you win and are afraid to die, and if you lose, you will be close to the goal of losing your principal.
5.11比特币和以太坊后市行情我们该怎么看呢？
What do we think of the 5.11 bitcoin and the city after Ether?
从大方向看，当下还处在强势期，大方向我们就不说了，强势期无量上涨，目标还是之前说的，比特币7万，以太坊5000。
In the big direction, we're still in a period of strength, and in the big direction we're not talking about it.
近期市场普涨，尤其是小币种，轮番拉升并且幅度很大，只有比特币没有发力，一直陷入震荡迟迟不前，小币种就会暴力拉伸，只要比特币呈现弱势下跌，小币种就会暴跌下跌，甚至拦腰斩。对于现货目前我建议做以太和莱特，我比较看好这两种币，无论是市场规模还是热度都可以。
The recent boom in the market, especially in small currency, has been large, with only bitcoins not active, they have been stuck in tremors, they have been violently stretched out, and as long as bitcoins have fallen in weakness, they have fallen, or even been cut off. For the spot, I suggest Ether and Leiter, both of which are more likely to be market sizes and heat.
昨天比特币冲高到59500美金后遇阻回落，今天凌晨遭遇砸盘，最低到达53400附近，目前已经放量跌破日线MA83线，形式对多头较为不利。由于之前市场普涨，资金对比特币突破前高的预期很强，导致小资金不断加码形成超买，日线MFI已经在超买区拐头向下，盘口可观察到大资金卖单在上方持续出货，OBV同样回落明显，猜想这波快速下跌目的是挤出其他币种资金池的水份，从而形成资金回流比特币，调整越充分后期比特币领涨幅度越大，当下调整还会继续，短期支撑在53000附近，压力位59500。
Yesterday, when Bitcoin reached $59500, he was hit by a crash in the early morning, reaching at least 53,400, and is now falling down the Japanese line of MA83, in a form less favourable to many. As a result of the previous boom in the market, the capital of Bitcoin was so high that it was expected to break through, leading to a continued over-purchase of small capital, the Japanese MFI was down in the over-buying area, the plate could see that the large money sales list continued to flow, the same as the OBV fell, and it was assumed that the rapid drop was aimed at crowding out the water in other currency pools, thus creating a capital backflow of the currency, and that the later adjustment was greater than the full-time increase in the currency, and that the adjustment would continue, with the short-term support of 53,000 near the pressure of 59500.
以太坊就不多说了，短期看震荡，支撑在3700一带，后市继续看多，只要大盘不弱势就做多，尽量不做空，因为做空一旦涨上去几乎不会给到机会出场，但是做多的话，止盈机会多得多。
The Etherayas say little more: watch the tremors in the short term, hold them up in the area of 3,700, and then the city continues to watch more, doing more as long as the big plate is not vulnerable, and doing as little as possible, because when the sky rises, it rarely gives a chance, but if it does, there are far more opportunities to stop it.
5.11比特币以太坊合约短线交易思路：
5.11 bitcoin is based on the Tails contract short-line trade concept:
一、比特币54500-55000做多，止损53500，目标看57000即可。
I. Bitcoin 54500-55000 more, 53500 less damage, 57,000 for target.
二、比特币57000-57500做空，止损58000，目标54000附近。（倘若止损，那么看多至59500）
ii. Bitcoin 57,000-57500 is empty, with damage of 58,000, near target 54,000. (If damage is stopped, it looks as much as 59500.)
三、以太坊3850择机做多，止损带50点，目标4080。
iii. Do more with the Tai Hoon 3850, 50 points, target 4080.
四、以太坊波段交易目标看4120，其次420，止损看3750。
iv. Check 4120 with the Taiwan band trading target, followed by 420 with a stoppage of 3750.
（以上仅供参考，不具备及时性，近期波动巨大，交易带好止损，耐心等待点位，实时入场点位和止盈点位实盘群给出）
(For information only, there is no timeliness, there has been great volatility in recent times, trades have been smooth, patiently waiting to be counted, real-time arrival and end-of-the-dossme delivery)
文/唐锦标（公众号：币圈唐锦标）
Man/Dang Tournament (Public Number: Currency Circle Tang Tournament)
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