多种因素使得即将到来的 4 月份比特币减半成为加密货币史上最受期待的减半。
A number of factors have led to the upcoming halving of Bitcoin being the most expected half of the history of encrypted currency.
此前的三次比特币减半分别发生在2012年11月28日、2016年7月9日和2020年5月11日。这一次减半是在美国证券交易委员会（SEC）批准有史以来第一个现货比特币交易所交易之后进行的。基金（ETF）在美国上市，大大增加了围绕该事件的炒作。
The previous three halves of bitcoins took place on 28 November 2012, 9 July 2016, and 11 May 2020, respectively. This reduction followed the approval by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the first ever spot bitcoin exchange deal. The Fund’s listing in the United States significantly increased its campaign around the event.
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ETF并不是提高预期水平的唯一因素。SafeWallet 的创建者 Safe 的机构和金融科技主管 Julian Grigo 告诉 Cointelegraph，比特币减半是一个重要的提醒，提醒人们比特币与法定货币的区别。
The ETF is not the only factor that increases expectations. The founder of SafeWallet, Safe, and the director of financial science and technology, Julian Grigo, told Cointelegraph that halving bitcoin is an important reminder of the difference between bitcoin and statutory currency.
此次比特币减半是在全球通胀高于平均水平之后发生的。
This time, the halving of bitcoin followed higher-than-average global inflation.
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无人能改变的固定供应计划。在这方面，比特币和其他加密货币与美元等民族国家发行的货币形成鲜明对比。然而，，这种有限的供应对于目前的以太币 (以太坊$4,060)来说更是如此。
No one can change a fixed supply plan. Here, bitcoin and other encrypted currencies contrast sharply with currencies issued by ethnic countries such as the United States dollar. However, this limited supply is particularly true for the current NT$4,060 (.
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“比特币的供应仍在增长——只是速度较慢。相比之下，以太币的供应量实际上正在减少。从这个角度来看，以太币可以被视为一种更好的价值储存手段……因此，如果看到以太币比比特币从减半事件中受益更多，我不会感到惊讶，”他说。
“The supply of bitcoin is still growing – only at a slower pace. By contrast, the supply of bitcoin is actually decreasing. From this point of view, it can be seen as a better storage tool for value so I wouldn't be surprised to see that bitcoin benefits more than bitcoin from halving,” he said.
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Xapo 银行董事兼公共事务、政策和监管主管 Joey Garcia 告诉 Cointelegraph，他预计减半将对以太坊和更广泛的市场产生积极影响。
The Director of Xapo Bank and Head of Public Affairs, Policy and Regulation, Joey Garcia, told Cointelegraph that he expected a reduction of half would have a positive impact on the East Pacific and the wider market.
加西亚表示：“该机制旨在模仿贵金属的稀缺性和通货紧缩方面。” 他补充道，“这对以太坊和更广泛的市场产生的间接影响很有趣。”
García stated: “The mechanism is designed to mimic the scarcity and deflation of precious metals.” He added that “it is interesting to have an indirect impact on the Etherpan and the wider market”.
他表示，减半可以对市场情绪产生积极影响，并“导致更多资源和创新流入以太坊等更广泛的生态系统”。
He said that a reduction of half could have a positive impact on market sentiment and “lead to the inflow of more resources and innovation into broader ecosystems such as the Etherms”.
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加西亚所说的稀缺是指挖矿奖励从 6.25 BTC 减少到 3.125 BTC。当然，这预计会给比特币的供应面带来更大的压力。
García refers to a reduction in mining incentives from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Of course, this is expected to put greater pressure on the supply side of Bitcoin.
数字资产通用第一层老挝网络 (Laos Network) 的联合创始人阿伦·埃文斯 (Alun Evans) 告诉 Cointelegraph，“虽然这一事件直接影响比特币，但它的影响遍及整个加密生态系统，包括以太坊。”
The co-founder of Laos Network, Alun Evans, told Cointelegraph that “although this event directly affects Bitcoin, its impact extends to the entire encrypt ecosystem, including the Etheria.”
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埃文斯补充道：“进入市场的新硬币供应量减少可能会导致稀缺。如果比特币价格在减半后上涨，随着投资者分散投资组合，以太坊和其他加密货币的价格可能会上涨。”
Evans adds: “The decline in the supply of new coins entering the market may lead to scarcity. If the price of bitcoins rises by half, and as investors diversify their portfolios, the price of talismans and other encrypted currencies may rise.”
这可能并不是许多人认为的完全积极的消息。ETH 价格快速升值可能会带来一些负面影响。以太坊价格飙升并不完全有利。比特币主要作为价值的数字存储或支付方式，而以太坊则支持各种应用程序和智能合约。
This may not be entirely positive news for many. The rapid price appreciation of the ETH may have some negative effects. The sharp rise in the price of the taupulega is not entirely beneficial. Bitcoin is primarily a digital storage or payment method of value, while the taupules support applications and smart contracts.
因此，更加不稳定和不可预测的市场可能会使以太坊的使用变得不太适合用户和开发人员。这是以太坊开发者在下一个牛市周期中必须应对的问题。
As a result, more volatile and unpredictable markets may make the use of Etherm less suitable for users and developers. This is an issue that Etherm developers will have to deal with in the next cattle cycle.
“随着以太坊网络成本的增加，我们将继续看到替代的第 1 层和第 2 层扩展解决方案（例如，多以太坊虚拟机超级链）来提高网络的可扩展性并降低交易费用，使其更易于访问且成本更低。对用户和开发人员都很有效，”埃文斯说。
"As the cost of the e-Taiwan network increases, we will continue to see alternative 1st and 2nd layers of extension solutions (e.g., more or less of the e-Thai virtual machine superchains) to increase the expansionability of the network and reduce transaction costs, making it easier to access and less costly.
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虽然有些人将积极的市场行为归因于比特币和减半，但其他人则指出了其他因素。由于投资者预计未来几周即将发生供应减半事件，比特币将继续呈抛物线式上涨。” “从比特币 ETF 的稳定流入来看，有三个核心催化剂推动了净积极的市场行为：以太坊 3 月份的 Dencun 升级、比特币 4 月份的减半以及 5 月份 SEC 批准现货以太坊 ETF 的前景。”
不过，尽管大多数分析师都关注比特币上涨势头的积极因素，但拉尔瓦尼预测以太坊可能会在短期内遭受损失。
However, although most analysts are concerned about the positive factors behind the upward trend in Bitcoin, Larwani predicts that Ethio may suffer losses in the short term.
“随着比特币飙升至历史新高，流动性暂时从以太坊和山寨币等其他来源撤出。一旦人们对比特币的注意力转移到以太坊 ETF 的潜力上，流动性就会在高位回撤并盘整，从而导致宏观前景的价格上涨。
“As Bitcoin soars up to historical heights, liquidity is temporarily withdrawn from other sources, such as Etherkom and mountain coins. Once attention is shifted to the potential of Ethercopic ETFs, liquidity is withdrawn and consolidated at higher heights, leading to higher macro-prospective prices.
“在投资者对加密货币兴趣复苏的支持下，比特币价格上涨的巨大力量已经对以太坊产生了明显的连锁反应。从 3 月份发生的以太坊 Dencun 升级到 4 月份比特币减半，以及 5 月份推出以太坊 ETF 现货的可能性，这些重大行业里程碑引发了各方的兴奋。”Alexander 告诉 Cointelegraph。
“The enormous power of the price of bitcoin, supported by the recovery of investors’ interest in crypto-currency, has already had a clear chain reaction to Ether. From what happened in March, when the Etherium Dencun was upgraded to halve the amount of Bitcoin in April, and the possibility of launching Ether ETF spot in May, these major industry milestones have given rise to excitement.” Alexander told Cointelegraph.
亚历山大补充说，“这些事件是可以预见的，并且很大程度上已被定价。”
Alexander added that “these events were foreseeable and, to a large extent, priced”.
尽管如此，亚历山大仍然认为比特币和以太坊仍然是很好的长期投资。
Despite this, Alexander still believes that Bitcoin and Etheria are still good long-term investments.
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Aki Balogh 是 DLC.Link 的联合创始人兼首席执行官，DLC.Link 是一个 Web3 基础设施，使比特币持有者能够自我包装并参与去中心化金融。Balogh 告诉 Cointelegraph，他非常看好比特币，因为比特币减半、Ordinals 和 MicroStrategy“垄断了市场”，所有这些都“进一步减少了供应”。
Aki Balogh, a co-founder and CEO of DLC.Link, is a Web3 infrastructure that enables Bitcoin holders to self-package and participate in decentralised finance. Balogh told Cointelegraph that he looks very well at Bitcoin because Bitcoin is halved, Ordinals and MicroStrategy “monopolizes the market”, all of which “further reduces supply”.
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许多对冲交易者将 ETH 和其他代币与 BTC 而非美元进行交易，以最大限度地降低[外汇]风险。因此，如果 BTC 上涨，将会产生增加 ETH 和其他代币价值的二次效应。比特币减半是加密货币作为新资产类别的扩音器，但以太坊的回声可能最响亮。
Many hedge traders trade ETH and other tokens with BTC instead of the United States dollar in order to minimize [foreign exchange] risk. Thus, if the BTC rises, it will have the secondary effect of increasing the value of ETH and other tokens. The halving of bitcoins is an encrypted currency as an amplifier for new asset classes, but an echo in the too-horizon may be the loudest.
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