在中国禁止比特币场内交易后，比特币的发展脚步并没有停下。
Bitcoin's development did not stop after China banned intra-bitcoin transactions.
据coindesk消息，比特币黄金(Bitcoin Gold)将在11月12日正式上线。芝加哥商业交易所也宣布，计划在今年第四季度推出比特币期货，目前正在等待监管部门的审查。
According to Coindesk, Bitcoin Gold will be officially online on November 12. The Chicago Business Exchanges also announced plans to roll out Bitcoin futures in the fourth quarter of this year, pending review by the regulatory authorities.
2017年10月31日是比特币在中国市场发展的分水岭，国内三大比特币交易平台 （比特币中国、火币网、OKcoin币行）正式关停虚拟货币兑换人民币的集合竞价交易。而此前六年，比特币交易在中国迅猛发展。中国市场占全球交易比重逐年攀升，一度高达90%以上，成为比特币交易的主战场。
On October 31, 2017, a watershed in the development of Bitcoin in China’s market, the country’s three main bitcoin trading platforms & nbsp; Bitcoin China, the Democratic Currency Network, and the Okcoin Bank) officially shut down the run-up of virtual currency to the renminbi. Six years ago, the Bitcoin deal developed rapidly in China.
“去中国化”后，市场一度担忧比特币的发展前景，不过进入11月，比特币价格继续攀升。11月9日,比特币一度逼近每个币7900美元（约合人民币52400元），再创新高，仅从价格来看，受中国市场影响有限。币圈人士预计，比特币“一币一别墅”的小目标或许依然能成真。
After “de-Chinaization” the market was concerned about the development prospects of Bitcoin, but in November the price of Bitcoin continued to rise. On November 9, Bitcoin was close to $7,900 (approximately RMB 52,400) per currency, and was re-innovated at a higher level, and was limited in price terms by the Chinese market.
老牌交易所出手
It's an old deal.
巧合的是，在中国比特币交易全部关停的当天，芝加哥商业交易所宣布计划在今年第四季度推出比特币期货，目前正在等待监管部门的审查。
Coincidence is that, on the day that all bitcoin transactions in China were shut down, the Chicago Business Exchange announced that it planned to roll out bitcoin futures in the fourth quarter of this year and is currently awaiting review by the regulatory authorities.
芝商所集团董事长兼CEO特里·杜菲(Terry Duffy)表示，交易所采取这一行动是“考虑到客户对不断发展演变的加密货币市场兴趣越来越大。同时作为全球最大的受监管的外汇市场，芝商所是这类投资工具的天然之家，将为投资者提供更透明、更直接、更安全的交易”。
The President and CEOT Duffy (Terry Duffy) of the ISF Group stated that the exchange’s action was “to take into account the growing interest of customers in the evolving market for encrypted currency. As the world’s largest regulated foreign exchange market, the ISF is a natural home for such investment instruments, which will provide investors with more transparent, direct, and safer transactions”.
据CNBC报道，比特币期货合约将以现金方式结算，并基于芝商所与伦敦数字货币交易平台Crypto Facilities于2016年11月推出的比特币参考利率。该参考利率是在伦敦当地时间每天下午4点公布的比特币结算价。
According to CNBC, the Bitcoin futures contract will be settled on a cash basis and based on the Internet & nbsp with the London Digital Currency Trading Platform; the Bitcoin reference rate introduced by Faciliities in November 2016. The reference rate is a Bitcoin settlement published at 4 p.m. London local time.
数字货币对冲基金Block Tower Capital首席投资官阿里·保罗(Ari Paul)表示：“经美国商品期货交易委员会监管的比特币衍生品的加入，将给数字货币生态系统带来大量的流动性和合法性。”保罗还指出，由于许多机构投资者无法直接投资比特币，通过大型交易所推出的衍生品，投资者便有了购买比特币更为方便快捷的途径。
A digital money hedge fund, Block Tower Capital Chief Investment Officer, Ali Paul, stated: “The addition of bitcoin derivatives regulated by the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission will bring significant liquidity and legitimacy to the digital monetary ecosystem.” Paul also pointed out that since many institutional investors were unable to invest directly in bitcoin, derivatives launched through large exchanges would make it easier for investors to buy bitcoins more quickly.
在数字货币市场资深分析师肖磊看来，比特币期货的推出具有历史性意义。
In the view of Xiao Xiao Xiao, senior analysts in the digital currency market, the introduction of Bitcoin futures was historic.
他进一步向《国际金融报》记者表示：“从芝商所的规模和市场地位来看，一旦推出比特币期货，就等于直接承认了比特币无论作为商品还是投资标的具有合法地位。比特币期货也将作为一种合法的衍生品品种，与原油、黄金、农产品等一样，机构能安心参与该品种投资，除了价格风险外再无其他风险。”
He further stated to the Journal of International Finance that: “In view of the size and market position of the Institute, the introduction of Bitcoin futures would be tantamount to a direct recognition of the legitimacy of Bitcoins, whether as a commodity or as an investment object. Bitcoins futures would also be a legitimate derivative, and, like crude oil, gold, agricultural products etc., institutions would be able to participate safely in the investment of this variety, with no risk other than price risk.”
基于比特币大幅波动的价格特性，芝商所计划对比特币期货实施类似S&P500等期货合约一样的日内价格波动限制，将对高于或低于前一结算价的7%和13%的价格波动设限，达到这两个阀值时，可能令比特币期货交易暂停两分钟，而当波动幅度达到20%时，全天交易可能到此为止。
Based on the price characteristics of the large fluctuations in bitcoins, the sequester plans to implement the same day-to-day price fluctuations as in futures contracts such as S&P500, which would set limits on price fluctuations of 7 per cent and 13 per cent above or below the previous settlement, which, when reached, might suspend the currency futures transactions for a period of two minutes, while full-day transactions could end when the fluctuations reached 20 per cent.
CME名誉董事长、金融期货市场创始人梅拉米德（Leo Melamed）表示：“我们会管理比特币，我们会驯服它，让它成为价格稳定波动、有规则的交易工具。”
The Honorary Chairman of the CME and founder of the financial futures market, Leo Melamed, said: “We will manage Bitcoin, and we will tame it as a stable, rule-based trading tool for price volatility.” & nbsp;
监管难阻上涨
Regulators can't stop the rise.
目前比特币在全球的交易，呈现出了前所未有的多元化、分散化格局。
At present, Bitcoin's global transactions present an unprecedented pattern of diversification and fragmentation.
继中国严格监管后，越南央行也全面禁止比特币及其他类似数字货币活动，随后黎巴嫩中央银行相继宣布禁止使用比特币，并且将推出自己的数字货币。
Following strict Chinese supervision, the Central Bank of Viet Nam also imposed a total ban on Bitcoin and other similar digital monetary activities, following which the Central Bank of Lebanon announced a ban on Bitcoin and would introduce its own digital currency.
印度央行执行董事Ganesh Kumar最近也表达该行拒绝在近期允许比特币作为合法货币。
The Executive Director of the Central Bank of India, Ganesh Kumar has also recently expressed the Bank’s refusal to allow Bitcoin as a legitimate currency in the near future.
与这些监管严格的国家相比，日本对比特币态度最为开放，内阁通过了一系列法案，承认比特币等虚拟货币具备“类财产价值”，可以用于支付和数字交易。澳大利亚于2017年7月1日把比特币视为货币，并将废除比特币商品与服务税(GST)。
Compared to these highly regulated countries, Japan’s Bitcoin approach is the most open, and the Cabinet has passed a series of bills recognizing virtual currencies such as Bitcoin as “class property values” that can be used to pay for and digitally traded. Australia treated Bitcoin as a currency on 1 July 2017, and will abolish the Bitcoin Goods and Services Tax (GST).
美国各州对比特币的态度不一，华盛顿州最严，要求数字货币交易所必须申请牌照，同时要求第三方的独立审核。而比较宽松的内布拉斯加州则允许律师接受数字货币作为报酬。
The U.S. states of Bitcoin have different attitudes, and Washington is the most stringent state, which requires the digital currency exchange to apply for a license plate, while requiring independent scrutiny by third parties. Nebraska, which is more liberal, allows lawyers to accept digital money as a reward.
监管分化对比特币价格影响有限。
The impact of regulatory differentiation on the price of bitcoins is limited.
9月初，中国央行等七部委发布《关于防范代帀发行融资风险的公告》，首次明确指出ICO本质上是一种未经批准非法公开融资的行为，禁止任何组织和个人非法从事代币发行融资活动。9月15日，国家监管层下令关闭所有虚拟货币兑换人民币的集合竞价交易。
In early September, seven ministries and departments, including the Central Bank of China, issued a bulletin on protection against the risk of surrogate financing, which clearly states for the first time that the ICO is inherently an unauthorized act of illegal public financing, and prohibits any organization or individual from engaging in the illegal financing of money in exchange for currency. On September 15, the national regulatory authority ordered the closure of all pooled bid transactions involving the exchange of virtual currency for renminbi.
9月ICO监管风暴来临，比特币价格受到冲击，曾一度跌破4000美元，但很快触底反弹，10月以来先后突破5000美元、6000美元大关。在中国比特币交易正式关闭后的一周，比特币价格更是继续攀至7000美元上方。11月9日,比特币更是一度逼近7900美元，再创新高。
In September, the ICO regulatory storm hit Bitco’s price, once down by $4,000, but quickly rebounded, breaking through $5,000 and $6,000 since October. In the week following China’s official closure of the Bitcoin deal, Bitcoin prices continued to rise above $7,000.
肖磊表示：“比特币从2009年诞生到2013年，经历的都是没有交易所的日子，但报价却从接近零涨到5000元人民币，涨幅巨大。所以有没有交易所对比特币价格影响不大。尽管中国的监管政策影响了一部分用交易所交易的比特币投资者，比特币价格有短暂下跌，但很快价格就修复了。”
Shaw said: “Betcoin was born in 2009 until 2013 and went through days without an exchange, but the price price rose from close to zero to 5,000 yuan, so it didn’t matter whether there was an exchange of bitcoin prices. Although China’s regulatory policy affected some of the Bitcoin investors traded on the exchange, Bitcoin prices fell briefly, and prices quickly recovered.”
而比特币上涨的趋势可能还将延续。
The upward trend in bitcoin is likely to continue.
花旗集团分析师克里斯托弗·查普曼(Christopher Chapman)表示，即使比特币突破了8000美元，但根据目前的比特币价格增长趋势和产出量减少以及电力的使用情况来看，截至2022年，如果要保证挖矿保本还能略微盈利的话，比特币价格就会达到令人瞠目结舌的30万至150万美元。 按照这种发展速度，比特币隐含的消费就能和整个日本的消费相匹配。
Citigroup analyst Christopher & nbsp (Chapman) said that even though Bitcoin had passed by $8,000, based on current trends in bitcoin price growth and reduced output, as well as electricity use, by 2022, the price of bitcoin would have reached an impressive $300,000 to $1.5 million if mining could have been saved. And nbsp; at this rate of development, Bitcoin’s hidden consumption would have matched that of Japan as a whole.
交易此消彼长
It's a trade-off.
目前，中国比特币交易平台都纷纷转向国际市场。
At present, China's Bitcoin trading platform is shifting to international markets.
火币网推出包括服务全球专业交易者的数字资产交易平台火币全球专业站、基于韩元的数字资产交易平台火币韩国、向全球合格投资者提供基于美元的数字资产交易服务的火币全球美元站，以及为用户提供数字资产管理服务的货币钱包。而OkCoin多年前就开设国际化的交易网站OKCoin.com和 OKEx.com，近来通过投资、合作等方式拿到了世界多国数字资产交易的牌照。
The Network has launched the Digital Asset Trading Platform, which serves global professional traders, the Korea Dollar-based Digital Assets Trading Platform, the Global Dollar Station, which provides dollar-based digital asset trading services to globally qualified investors, and the Currency Wallet, which provides digital asset management services to users. OkCoin, for many years, has set up an internationalized trading site, OKCoin.com and OKEx.com, which has recently obtained licences for multi-country digital asset transactions through investment, cooperation, etc.
受此影响，中国比特币交易量急速下降，目前占比不到全球市场交易份额的2%，淡出国际舞台。与此同时，另一些国家和地区的交易却急速上升。
As a result, China’s Bitcoin trade volume has fallen sharply, currently accounting for less than 2% of the global market’s share, and has faded out of the international arena. At the same time, other countries and regions are experiencing a sharp rise in trade.
上月，日本金融服务局FSA颁发了虚拟货币的交易所牌照，这使得日本的比特币交易量大增，目前日元兑换比特币的交易量已占到了比特币总交易量的60%以上，日本国内各大金融机构和互联网公司等也在积极介入区块链行业，行业发展势头强劲。风投公司Blockchain Capital在2017年10月对美国逾2000名18岁以上的成年人进行调查，显示在18岁至34岁的“千禧一代”当中 ，有30%的人表示，相较于1000美元的国债，他们更愿意持有同等价值的比特币；亦有27%的千禧一代表示，若有同等价值的比特币及股票，他们更愿意买入比特币而非股票。
Last month, the Japan Financial Services Agency (JFSA) issued a virtual currency exchange license, which led to a significant increase in Japanese bitcoin transactions, which now account for more than 60% of the total bitcoin transactions, and major domestic financial institutions and Internet companies, among others, which are actively involved in the sector’s chain industry, with strong growth. The wind-spill company Blockchain the Capital survey of over 2,000 adults over 18 years of age in the United States in October 2017 showed that was among the “one thousand-year-old” generation between 18 and 34 years of age; 30% said that they were more willing to hold bitcoins of the same value than the national debt of $1,000; and 27% of the millennium generation said that they were more willing to buy bitcoins than shares if they were worth the same value than special coins and shares.
肖磊表示：“比特币已是一个全球性的市场。一旦比特币期货批准了，更多金融机构、私募基金、对冲基金都会介入，需求基数又会扩大一个数量级。”
Shaw said, "Bitcoin is already a global market. Once Bitcoin futures are approved, more financial institutions, private fund-raising, hedge funds will be involved, and the demand base will be expanded by one order of magnitude."
转入场外交易
Transfer to off-site transactions
虽然国内的比特币场内交易全部关闭，但这并不意味着比特币交易时代的终结。
Although all domestic intra-bitcoin transactions were closed, this did not mean the end of the Bitcoin trading era.
金融科技信息平台BTC Media亚洲业务主管约翰·里金斯(John Riggins)表示：“中国比特币交易所迎合监管的转型将把更多交易推向场外交易，那里是一个相当有活力且具备充分流动性的市场。”
The Financial Science and Technology Information Platform BTC Media Asia Operations Manager John & nbsp; Riggins) stated: “The transition of China's Bitcoin Exchange to regulation will push more transactions into off-site transactions, where there is a fairly dynamic and fully mobile market.”
根据国家互联网金融安全技术专家委员会近日发布的《比特币场外交易监测报告》显示，随着9月初国内ICO和比特币交易的业务清理，场外交易再一次繁荣。从LocalBitcoin及Paxful两家平台交易数据来看，BTC-CNY（比特币兑人民币）场外交易量占其比特币场外交易总量的份额从5%左右上升至20%左右。
According to the Monitoring Report on Foreign Transactions in Bitcoin, published recently by the National Technical Expert Committee on Internet Financial Security, with the clean-up of domestic transactions in ICO and Bitcoin at the beginning of September, out-of-office transactions have again flourished. According to data from the Local Bitcoin and Paxful platforms, the BTC-CNY (bitcoin vs. renminbi) share of its total out-of-office transactions has increased from about 5% to about 20%.
其实在比特币诞生之初，最先有的就是场外交易，而中国政策风向的转变又让交易“返璞归真”。
In fact, in the early days of Bitcoin, out-of-the-box transactions were the first to take place, and the shift in China's policy winds made the deal “return to reality”.
目前的场外交易大致有三种方式。第一种是线上点对点交易，一般通过LocalBitcoins、CoinCola等场外交易平台。11月4日，火币网正式上线点对点交易平台，支持人民币买卖与提币。此前，OKCoin的合作伙伴OKEx也已上线了C2C业务。这意味着，原三大交易平台中的两家已布局了场外交易。
The first is online point-to-point transactions, usually through off-site trading platforms such as Local Bitcoins and CoinCola. On November 4, the Democratic Currency Network officially went to the point-to-point trading platform to support sales of the renminbi and currency bills. Prior to that, OKCoin’s partner, OKEx, had also been on-line with C2C operations.
比特币投资者陆成在接受《国际金融报》记者采访时表示：“点对点交易好比淘宝的平台担保交易，淘宝是买家把钱打到平台，卖家发货，买家确认，平台再打钱给卖家。这边是卖方将币转到平台，买方直接打钱给卖方，卖方确认，平台再把币转给买方。”
In an interview with the Journal of International Finance, Mr. Luo, a Bitcoin investor, said: “The point-to-point deal is like a platform secured transaction for treasures that buys money to the platform, sells it, sells it to the buyer, confirms the buyer, calls the platform to the seller. This is where the seller transfers the money to the platform, the buyer directs the money to the seller, and the seller confirms that the platform transfers the money to the buyer.”
陆成说自己原来都是通过火币网交易，网站关掉以后，尝试过国外渠道，但验证流程比较繁琐，而且很多平台不给外国人注册。最近恰好火币上线点对点交易，现在主要通过这个渠道进行比特币交易。
After closing the website, attempts were made at foreign channels, but the verification process was cumbersome, and many platforms were not registered to foreigners. Recently, the money was traded at point-to-point, and now deals with bitcoin mainly through this channel.
场外交易的第二种方式是线上B2C交易。用户可直接向平台购买或卖出比特币，其价格由平台指定。平台在收取用户的付款后，将直接释放比特币给买家用户，或在收到比特币后，将资金释放给卖家用户。B端的资金或比特币为平台自有或来自于合作商户。
The second means of off-site transactions is B2C transactions. Users can buy or sell bitcoin directly to the platform, at a price specified by the platform. The platform will either release bitcoin directly to the buyer after receiving payment from the user or, upon receiving bitcoin, release the money to the seller.
还有一种是买卖双方在线上或线下,通过在线聊天工具如QQ群、微信群，或面对面的纯线下方式进行交易。肖磊告诉《国际金融报》记者:“这种线下一对一交易方式效率非常低，难度也很大。如果有中间人且中间人信用较低，更会有跑路风险。目前比特币交易转移至场外，投资者交易行为不受法律保护。对于不熟悉比特币的人来说，存在巨大风险，需谨慎参与。”
There is also an online or offline transaction between buyers and sellers through online chat tools such as the QQ-group, the micro-message, or face-to-face pure line-up. Shaw told the correspondent of the International Journal of Finance: “This line is a very inefficient and difficult one-to-one deal. There is a greater risk of running the road if there are middlemen and middlemen have less credit.
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