? ? 1月10日，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）批准了11支比特币现货ETF的申请，标志着加密资产正式进入全球主流机构的资产配置核心池。然而，ETF开盘后第一天，比特币的价格走势却与市场的预期大相径庭。从49000美元的高点，比特币价格最低跌至41500美元，几乎抹去了近一个月的所有涨幅。这中间究竟发生了什么？为何在现货ETF获批后，大量资金反而从BTC市场流出而不是流入？
On January 10, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 11 Bitcoin spot ETF applications, marking the official entry of encrypted assets into the global mainstream asset allocation core pool. However, on the first day after the ETF was opened, the price of Bitcoin changed significantly from what the market expected. From the high point of $49,000, the price of Bitcoin dropped to $41,500, wiping out almost all the increases of almost a month. What happened in the middle?
为了深入了解这一现象，我们以1000美元的实操为例，详细解析了ETF背后的交易执行机制。通过这一过程，我们发现，尽管SEC批准了比特币现货ETF，但市场对于这一新型投资工具的反应却不尽相同。投资者需要意识到，ETF的交易机制和传统股市存在一定的差异，而这种差异可能导致资金的流动并非完全符合预期。
In order to gain insight into this phenomenon, we provided a detailed analysis of the transaction enforcement mechanisms behind the ETF, using $1,000 as an example. Through this process, we found that despite SEC approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, the market reacted differently to this new investment instrument. Investors need to realize that there are certain differences in ETF trading mechanisms and traditional stock markets, which may lead to capital flows that are not exactly as expected.
? ? 首先，我们要明白ETF的交易执行机制。当投资者购买ETF时，实际上是在购买一篮子证券或其他基础资产，例如黄金、原油或股票等。对于比特币ETF来说，投资者购买的实际上是一篮子比特币。因此，当投资者在二级市场卖出ETF时，其背后的操作是将这一篮子比特币兑换成现金。
First of all, we need to understand the transaction enforcement mechanism of ETFs. When investors buy ETFs, they actually buy a basket of securities or other basic assets, such as gold, crude oil, or stocks. For Bitcoin ETFs, investors buy a basket of bitcoins. So, when investors sell ETFs on secondary markets, the operation behind it is to convert the basket of bitcoins into cash.
然而，在比特币ETF刚刚获批的初期，市场对于这一新型投资工具的认知和接受程度可能并不高。一些投资者可能对这种新的投资方式持谨慎态度，或者在短期内选择观望。这可能导致在ETF开盘初期，市场对于比特币的需求并不高，从而引发价格下跌。
However, the market’s awareness and acceptance of this new investment instrument may not be high in the early days of the adoption of the Bitcoin ETF. Some investors may be cautious about this new approach to investment, or they may choose to wait and see in the short term. This may lead to low market demand for bitcoins in the early stages of the ETF opening, leading to price declines.
? ? 此外，比特币市场的波动性也是影响价格走势的重要因素。在过去的一年里，比特币的价格经历了大幅波动。当市场面临不确定性时，投资者可能会选择将资金撤出市场，这也可能导致比特币价格的下跌。
In addition, the volatility of the Bitcoin market has also been an important factor influencing price trends. In the past year, Bitcoin prices have experienced significant fluctuations.
? ? 一、：揭秘比特币现货ETF背后的资金流转过程
♪ First, the flow of money behind the discovery of the spot ETF in Bitcoin
要理解比特币现货ETF的资金流转过程，首先要明确四个关键角色：发行方、授权参与者、市场做市商和投资者。发行方负责设计和管理ETF产品，授权参与者有权直接与发行商进行申购和赎回，市场做市商提供二级市场流动性，而投资者则通过二级市场买卖ETF份额。
The issuer is responsible for designing and managing the ETF products, authorizing participants to have the right to requisition and foreclose directly with the issuer, marketers provide secondary market liquidity, and investors buy and sell ETF shares through the secondary market.
当投资者决定用1000美元购买比特币现货ETF时，这笔资金首先会流向市场做市商。由于市场需求的增加，做市商可能面临ETF份额不足的问题，导致ETF价格上涨。当ETF市值与发行方持有的比特币总资产出现差异时，就会产生正溢价。
When investors decide to buy a spot ETF in bitcoin at $1,000, the money first flows to the market as a marketer. As a result of increased market demand, marketers may face insufficient ETF shares, resulting in higher ETF prices. When the market value of the ETF differs from the total Bitcoin assets held by the issuer, a positive premium is created.
? ? ?此时，市场做市商会向授权参与者请求协助申购ETF份额。授权参与者会收到部分资金（如200美元），并使用这些资金向发行方申购ETF份额。发行方随后使用这笔资金购买比特币，这个过程可能在申购当日或之后的1-2天内完成。最终，资金流入加密货币市场，完成了从投资者到比特币市场的完整流转路径。
The issuer then uses the money to purchase bitcoins, which may be completed within 1-2 days of the date of the requisition. Eventually, the funds flow into the encrypted currency market, completing the complete flow route from the investor to the Bitcoin market.
? ? ?通过这一流程，我们可以看到比特币现货ETF如何将传统投资者的资金引入加密货币市场。这不仅为投资者提供了新的投资机会，也有助于促进加密货币市场的进一步发展。在参与这一市场时，投资者应了解自己的投资目标和风险承受能力，审慎分析市场动态和趋势，以把握最佳的投资机会。
♪ Through this process, we can see how the Bitcoin spot ETF brings funds from traditional investors into an encrypted currency market. Not only provides investors with new investment opportunities, but also contributes to the further development of an encrypted currency market.
二、ETF二级市场买入卖出成交额与比特币市场资金净流入流出的关系
II. Relationship between buy-in and sell-out on the ETF secondary market and net inflows and outflows on the Bitcoin market
在深入探讨比特币现货ETF对价格的影响时，我们发现一个重要的事实：ETF二级市场的买入卖出成交额并不等同于比特币市场的资金净流入流出。尽管这两个数值之间存在相互影响，但它们并不具备直接的等价关系。
In an in-depth examination of the impact of the Bitcoin spot ETF on prices, we find an important fact: buying and selling transactions in the ETF secondary market does not amount to net capital inflows out of the Bitcoin market. Although these two values have an impact on each other, they do not have a direct equivalent.
要理解这一现象，我们需要关注资金是如何通过ETF从传统金融市场流入比特币市场的。实际上，这一过程涉及到多个参与方的交互，包括发行方、授权参与者、市场做市商和投资者。
To understand this phenomenon, we need to focus on how money flows from traditional financial markets through ETFs to the Bitcoin market. In fact, the process involves interaction among multiple players, including issuers, authorized participants, market players and investors.
当我们讨论总净流入（Total Net Inflow）时，它代表了通过这11支ETF从传统金融市场流入比特币市场的美元总额。这个数值是通过加总所有ETF的申购和赎回数据来计算的。发行方会在各自的官网上披露这些数据，投资者也可以通过专业的数据跟踪工具，如Bloomberg或SoSo Value的ETF板块，按日查询这些数据。
When we discuss total net inflows, it represents the total dollar flows from these 11 ETFs to the Bitcoin market. This value is calculated by adding all ETF requisitions and foreclosure data. The issuers disclose these data on their respective official websites, and investors can search them on a daily basis through specialized data tracking tools, such as the Bloomberg or So-Value ETF plates.
以SoSo Value的ETF仪表盘为例，我们可以实时查看各比特币ETF的申购赎回情况。例如，灰度GBTC在某日的净流出为5.94亿美元，这意味着有大量资金从该ETF中撤出。而其他ETF如ARK、贝莱德和富达等可能在同日获得了净申购，总额达到14亿美元。
For example, in Soso Value's ETF dashboard, we can check in real time the requisitions for ETFs in Bitcoin. For example, the net outflow of the Greyscale GBTC on a given day was $594 million, which means that a large amount of money was withdrawn from the ETF. Other ETFs, such as ARC, Belede, and Fuda, may have received net requisitions on the same day, amounting to $1.4 billion.
然而，即使某日ETF的成交额很高，比如46.7亿美元和31.9亿美元，但由于灰度GBTC的大额净流出以及其他ETF的申购情况，整体比特币市场的资金净流入可能并不如成交额所显示的那样庞大。
However, even if the ETF was high on a given date, such as $4.67 billion and $3.19 billion, the overall net financial inflows into the Bitcoin market may not be as large as the volume of the transaction, owing to the large net outflow of greyscale GBTC and other ETF requisitions.
这种差异的原因在于，ETF的成交额包括了申购和赎回的总额，而资金的净流入流出仅关注资金的实际流动方向。因此，虽然ETF的成交额可以反映市场的活跃度，但要准确判断比特币市场的资金流动情况，我们更需要关注总净流入数据。
This difference is due to the fact that ETF transactions include total requisitions and foreclosures, while net inflows focus only on the actual flow of funds. Thus, while ETF transactions can reflect market dynamics, it is more important to focus on total net inflows data to determine accurately the flow of money in the Bitcoin market.
Part 3：灰度比特币ETF的资金流出原因及持续时间
Part 3: Reasons for and duration of financial outflows of ETF in the Greyscale Bitcoin
灰度比特币ETF近期出现了大额资金流出的现象，给市场带来了明显的卖压，导致观望情绪加剧。据SoSo Value数据显示，从1月11日至1月16日的短短三个交易日内，灰度GBTC的资金净流出达到了11.74亿美元。
According to Soso Value, in just three trading days, from 11 January to 16 January, GBTC’s net outflow amounted to US$ 1,174 million.
那么，为什么会出现这种情况呢？首先，我们需要了解灰度GBTC的运作机制。作为比特币ETF的代表之一，灰度GBTC的主要投资策略是直接投资比特币并持有至到期。因此，当投资者赎回GBTC时，实际上是在卖出所持有的比特币来获取现金。
So why does this happen? First, we need to understand the working mechanisms of the Greyscale GBTC. As one of the representatives of the Bitcoin ETF, the main investment strategy of the Greyscale GBTC is to invest in bitcoins directly and hold them to maturity. So, when investors redeem the GBTC, they actually sell the bitcoins they hold to get cash.
这种资金流出的背后可能有几个原因：
There may be several reasons behind this outflow:
市场不确定性：在比特币ETF获批后的初期，市场对于这一新型投资工具的接受程度和未来的发展前景可能存在不确定性。一些投资者可能选择在此时赎回GBTC，以降低潜在的风险。
Market uncertainty: There may be uncertainty about the market’s acceptance of this new investment instrument and future development prospects in the early years of the adoption of the Bitcoin ETF. Some investors may choose to redeem GBTC at this time to mitigate potential risks.
价格波动：比特币市场的价格波动较大，投资者可能会在价格波动时进行赎回操作，以锁定收益或减少损失。
Price volatility: Price volatility is high in the Bitcoin market, and investors may use foreclosure operations in the event of price volatility to lock in gains or reduce losses.
灰度比特币ETF近期出现了大额资金流出的现象，这背后主要有两大核心原因：一是比竞争对手高6倍的管理费，二是前期信托折价套利盘的平仓。
The recent large outflow of funds from the Greyscale Bitcoin ETF is largely driven by two central reasons: management fees six times higher than those of competitors, and the unwinding of pre-trust swaps.
首先，高昂的管理费是导致灰度比特币ETF资金流出的一个重要因素。相比其他竞争对手，灰度GBTC的管理费率高达1.5%，远高于行业的平均水平。许多长期看好比特币资产的投资人，由于无法承受过高的管理费用，选择将资金从灰度ETF转移至其他费率更低的ETF。这种转移导致了灰度ETF的资金流出。
First, high management fees are an important factor in the release of the Greyscale Bitcoin ETF. Compared to other competitors, the Greyscale GBTC has a management rate of up to 1.5%, well above the industry average.
其次，前期信托折价套利盘的平仓也是导致资金流出的另一大原因。在灰度比特币信托推出时，投资者通过认购比特币信托的方式将资金流入比特币市场。然而，由于灰度信托在当时只允许申购和二级市场交易，不允许赎回，导致这部分资金实际上被锁定在比特币市场中。随着时间的推移，这些被锁定的资金形成了信托折价套利盘。当SEC于1月10日批准灰度升级为ETF，允许投资者自由赎回时，这些被锁定的资金开始寻求平仓，退出比特币市场，从而导致了灰度ETF的资金流出。
Second, the smoothing of pre-trust swaps is another reason why the funds flow. When the Greytime Bitcoin Trust was launched, investors channelled the funds into the Bitcoin market by accepting the Bitcoin Trust. However, since the Graydo Trust at that time allowed only requisitions and secondary market transactions, it was not allowed to be redeemed, which led to the virtual lock-in of the money in the Bitcoins market.
对于比特币价格的影响，灰度ETF的资金流出可能会在短期内带来压力。由于市场对比特币ETF的接受程度和未来发展前景的不确定性，以及高管理费和信托折价套利盘平仓的影响，投资者可能会选择在此时卖出GBTC以锁定收益或减少损失。这种抛售行为可能导致比特币价格下跌。
The impact of the Bitcoin price is likely to put pressure on the flow of funds from the Greyscale ETF in the short term. Given the market’s acceptance of the Bitcoin ETF and uncertainty about future development prospects, as well as the impact of high management fees and trust discounts, investors may choose to sell the GBTC at this time in order to lock in gains or reduce losses.
此外，资金流出的时间和范围也可能影响比特币价格的走势。如果资金流出持续时间较长，可能会增加市场观望情绪，进一步打压比特币价格。而如果资金流出主要集中在某一时间段内，可能对价格产生短期冲击。
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In addition, the timing and extent of capital outflows may affect the evolution of bitcoin prices. If the outflows last longer, they may increase market wait-and-see sentiment, further crushing bitcoin prices.
尽管近期灰度比特币ETF出现了大额的资金流出，但这一现象并不意味着加密市场的长期前景黯淡。事实上，随着SEC批准比特币现货ETF的上市，更多投资者将有机会参与加密市场，这为整个行业带来了积极的影响。
Despite the recent significant outflow of funds from the Gret currency ETF, this does not mean that the long-term prospects for the encryption market are bleak. Indeed, as the SEC approves the listing of the Bitcoin spot ETF, more investors will have the opportunity to participate in the encryption market, which has had a positive impact on the industry as a whole.
首先，比特币现货ETF的推出为投资者提供了一种新的、更便捷的投资方式。相比于传统的加密货币交易，ETF具有更高的流动性和较低的门槛，使得更多人能够参与到加密市场中来。这将有助于扩大市场的规模和影响力，进一步提升加密货币的普及度和接受度。
First, the introduction of the Bitcoin spot ETF provides investors with a new and easier way to invest. The ETF has higher liquidity and lower thresholds than traditional cryptographic currency transactions, allowing more people to participate in the encryption market.
其次，比特币现货ETF的推出有助于提高市场的透明度和监管水平。作为一种公开上市的金融产品，ETF需要满足相关监管要求并接受监管机构的审查。这将促使加密市场更加规范化和透明化，减少暗箱操作和欺诈行为的发生。这将进一步增强市场的公信力和吸引力，吸引更多的投资者参与其中。
Second, the introduction of the Bitcoin spot ETF will help to increase transparency and regulation in the market. As an open-market financial product, the ETF needs to meet relevant regulatory requirements and be subject to scrutiny by regulators.
然而，我们也需要注意到灰度比特币ETF净流出所带来的短期影响。由于灰度持有大量的比特币现货，其净流出可能会对市场造成一定的冲击。短期内可能会导致比特币价格的下跌或波动加剧。但这种影响不应被过分夸大，因为市场具有自我调节的能力，而且其他因素如市场供需关系、宏观经济环境等也会对价格产生影响。
However, we also need to note the short-term impact of the net outflow of the Greyscale Bitcoin ETF. As the Greyscale holds a large amount of bitcoins on the spot, its net outflow may have some impact on the market.
长期来看，随着更多投资者通过比特币现货ETF进入加密市场，市场需求有望得到进一步提振。这将促使更多的机构投资者关注加密市场并加大投资力度。机构投资者的参与将为市场带来更多的资金和流动性，进一步推动加密货币价格的上涨和市场的繁荣发展。因此，我们预期在不久的将来，加密市场将迎来更加广阔的发展空间和更多的投资机会。
Over the long term, market demand is expected to rise further as more investors enter the encrypted market through the Bitcoin spot ETF. This will prompt more institutional investors to focus on the encryption market and increase investment.
究其背后的原因，是因为灰度的赎回压力对于整体比特币市场的影响是短期的，而更广泛的投资人群体会参与加密资产的投资，才是 ETF 时代的主叙事。如上一部分分析，如果仅是因为管理费率原因做搬迁的投资人，后续预计将买入其他家比特币 ETF，也将继续为比特币贡献买盘；赚折价的投资人对于比特币的影响是中性的。但另一方面，我们来看一下新增的比特币现货 ETF 管理人的实力。此次获批的发行方，如贝莱德（Blackrock，管理资产总规模 8.59 万亿美元），富达 （Fidelity，管理资产总规模 4.5 万亿美元），景顺（Invesco，管理规模 1.6 万亿美元），均为全球资管行业最顶级公司，其中贝莱德、先锋集团、道富银行更是一度被称为“三巨头”，控制着美国整个指数基金行业；而目前整个加密货币市场规模仅为 1.7 万亿。头部资管公司普遍被认为有更充足的管理经验、更严格的合规流程和更强的损失承兑能力，针对比特币这类新兴资产，更能增强投资者信任。另外头部品牌积累多年的全球销售渠道网络将助力比特币现货 ETF 这一全新品类资产更好地推广。
The reason behind this is the short-term impact of the grey-scale foreclosure pressure on the entire Bitcoin market, and the involvement of a wider group of investors in the investment of encrypted assets is that the main narrative of the ETF era
?未来三个月，加密市场还有三大节点举足轻重 按照重要度排列如下： 1/ 比特币减半：预计 2024 年 4 月，比特币新增供给大幅减少，而需求随ETF增加。 比特币通过每四年产出减半的机制确保其总供应量永远不超 2100 万枚，减半将直接导致比特币的新增供给大幅降低。结合比特币 ETF 通过，打通了资金流入比特币的通道，带来了对比特币大量的新增需求。一方面比特币的新增供给即将减半，另一方面需求在不断增加，同时美元降息周期对风险资产偏好提升，加密市场投资者普遍认为 24 年将迎来新一轮的上涨，俗称明牌牛市。 我们可以参考下过往比特币减半后，1 年内比特币价格的变化。比特币于 2009 年发行，当时挖矿产出为每个区块 50 BTC。此后经历了三次减半。 第一次减半发生在 2012 年 11 月，挖矿产出从每个区块 50 BTC 降至2 5 BTC，比特币价格在 1 年时间内，由 13 美元最高上涨到 1152 美元。 第二次减半在 2016 年 7 月，挖矿产出进一步降至每个区块 12.5 BTC，比特币价格由 664 美元上涨到最高 17760 美元。 第三次减半在 2020 年 5 月，挖矿产出再次减半至每个区块 6.25 BTC，比特币价格从 9734 美元最高上涨至 67,549 美元。 而下一次减半预计发生在?2024 年 4 月。 此外据 Coinshares 报告计算，本次比特币减半后，平均比特币矿工每枚比特币的挖矿成本(除一次性矿机成本外的电力消耗+维护成本等)将上升至 37,856 美元。 2/ 以太坊现货ETF获批：预计 2024 年 5 月。贝莱德、富达、景顺等机构同样申请了以太坊现货 ETF，获批可能性较高。随着比特币ETF的通过，市场开始预期以太坊 ETF 将在 5 月获批，价格也已经开始对此做出反应。 3/ 以太坊坎昆升级：预计 2024 年 2-3 月，将使得以太坊 Layer2 网络上的交易成本降至十分之一。坎昆升级之于以太坊，或将类似于移动互联网的 iPhone 时刻。更低的交易费用、更好的交易体验，将催生更多真正能服务大规模用户的应用场景。 感觉自己搞不清市场？别焦虑，来链研社找龙会长！不会看图？不懂合约？别担心！在这里，我们不仅仅教你如何看懂行情，更深度解析区块链基础知识、投资币种，以及各个赛道的底层逻辑。还有合约精准点位和现货中长线布局！
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