2021年2月9日早8时，比特币再次向上突破，最高报价47480.8美金，冲击50000美金关口。截至17时20分，一枚比特币报46553美元，市值超越特斯拉。按照当前约1800美元/盎司的国际金价，一枚币的价值大约可换一斤半黄金。
At 8 a.m. on 9 February 2021, Bitcoin made another breakthrough, with a maximum offer of $47480.8, which hit the $50,000 gate. As at 1720, a bitcoin offered $46553, the market value of which exceeded Tesla. At the current international gold price of approximately $1,800/ounce, the value of a coin was roughly half a pound of gold.
截至目前，比特币市值超过8455亿美元，排名升至第7位，超越Facebook和特斯拉（市值现报8184.39亿美元）。大佬站台、美国财政刺激推出在即、全球风险情绪重燃、流动性持续宽松都是暴涨的原因，各界也预计，鉴于加杠杆、投机炒作的现象加剧，未来通胀和流动性指标可能是需要关注的关键变量。
To date, the market value of Bitcoin has exceeded $84.55 billion, rising to seven, going beyond Facebook and Tesla (the market value is now $818.39 billion). The rise in capitalist positions, the introduction of US fiscal stimulus, the resurgence of global risk sentiment and the continued easing of liquidity have all contributed to the surge, and the world anticipates that future inflation and liquidity indicators may be key variables requiring attention, given the intensification of leverage and speculation.
缘何比特币再度暴涨？
Why did the bitcoin soar again?
2020年末，比特币价格一路飙涨，最高曾突破4万美元，随后一段时间反复波动，在2月9日又创新高。
By the end of 2020, the prices of Bitcoin had skyrocketed, with a peak of $40,000, followed by a period of volatility and high innovation on 9 February.
比特币破新高，与新晋世界首富、特斯拉总裁马斯克近期的言论密不可分。1月29日，在马斯克更改推特简介为“#bitcoin”后，比特币就上涨了18%，随后马斯克接连“带货”数字货币，先是在2月4日一天6次提及“狗狗币”，2月8日特斯拉对比特币总计投资15亿美元，再次将比特币拉上4.2万美元的高位。正因为马斯克在欧美有很强的号召力，在他的带动下，有大量“粉丝”买入数字货币，带来比特币和狗狗币的上涨。
Bitcoin broke new heights, closely linked to recent statements by Tesla's president, Mr. Tesla, the new richest in the world. On January 29, after Musk changed his Twitter profile to #bitcoin, Bitcoin rose by 18 per cent, and then Musk, with “carried” digital currency, first referred to “dog coins” six times a day on February 4, and on February 8 Teslabitco, with a total investment of $1.5 billion, once again pulling Bitcoin to a high of $42,000. Exactly because he had a strong appeal in the United States of America, he was led by a large number of fans who bought digital currency, leading to a rise in bitcoins and dogcoins.
此外，美国财政刺激政策的利好也起到重要作用。上周五，美国参议院强行以51-50投票表决，通过了拜登提出的1.9万亿美元财政刺激计划。
Moreover, the benefits of US fiscal stimulus have also played an important role. Last Friday, the US Senate forced a 51-50 vote to adopt the 1.9 trillion-dollar fiscal stimulus package proposed by Biden.
欧易OKEx研究院资深研究员威廉对第一财经记者表示，可以说，本轮比特币牛市的直接原因来自于类似特斯拉这样的高净值和机构投资者的入场——自2020年下半年以来，诸如美国保险巨头万通人寿保险公司、商业分析公司MicroStrategy等机构纷纷买入比特币。据Bitcoin Treasuries数据显示，目前超过69亿美元的比特币由上市公司持有。由此带来了比特币市场的繁荣。
William, a senior researcher at the EuiOKEx Institute, said to the first financial journalist that the direct reason for this round of Bitcoin’s cattle is the entry of high-value and institutional investors, such as Tesla – since the second half of 2020, agencies such as the American Insurance giant, the Manton Life Insurance Corporation, and business analysis companies, MicroStrategy, have been buying into Bitcoin. According to Bitcoin Treasuries, more than $6.9 billion in bitcoins are currently held by listed companies. This has led to the prosperity of the Bitcoin market.
传统机构大量买入比特币，其背后的深层次原因是今年全球宏观经济形势变化。一方面，受疫情的影响，未来一年里全球经济复苏减缓；另一方面，央行推出极度宽松的货币政策推高金融市场的通胀预期。高通胀、低增长的经济环境下，为了规避名义本金的受损，以及追求更高收益的需要，投资者囤积现金的需求自然演变成对黄金和比特币的需求。
On the one hand, global economic recovery will slow in the coming year, as a result of the epidemic; on the other hand, central banks have introduced extremely liberal monetary policies that push inflation expectations in financial markets. In a high-inflation, low-growth economic environment, and in order to avoid the loss of nominal principals and the need to pursue higher returns, investors’ cash hoarding needs have naturally evolved into demand for gold and bitcoin.
最明显的例子即马斯克旗下的特斯拉公司给美国SEC的最新披露文件：“在2021年1月，我们更新了投资政策，为我们提供了更大的灵活性，以进一步分散和最大化现金收益”。
The most obvious example is the latest disclosure by Tesla, under the banner of Musk, to the United States SEC: “In January 2021, we updated our investment policy to provide us with greater flexibility to further diversify and maximize cash returns”.
一枚比特币能买一斤半黄金，看似可笑，但圈内人的逻辑已经改变。分布科技创始人达鸿飞对第一财经称，在十多年的发展过程中，比特币已逐渐退出与法定货币的竞争，更偏向于在价值储备功能上发展，未来比特币更可能作为储备资产的一种形式，类似黄金。但比特币与黄金的区别也非常明显，黄金凝结了数千年人类对价值的共识，而比特币基于密码学和分布式网络、抗审查并极易转移，它在数字化浪潮下成为重要的新生资产的同时，也存在巨大的泡沫。
A bitcoin buys half a pound of gold, which seems to be ridiculous, but the logic of the people in the circle has changed. The founder of distributed technology, Da Hong Fei, claims to the First Money that, in more than a decade of development, bitcoin has gradually withdrawn from competition with the legal currency, more inclined to develop in value reserve functions, and that bitcoin is more likely to be in the future as a form of reserve assets, similar to gold.
通胀和流动性是关键变量
Inflation and liquidity are key variables
相关统计也显示，目前散户人群对比特币和加密货币行业的追捧程度比以往任何时候都高。
Statistics also show that the popularity of the Bitco and crypto-currency industries among the dispersed population is now higher than ever before.
“我们应该清醒地认识到，比特币是一种高风险资产，而不是避险资产；而且比特币作为一种特殊的资产类别，不同于股票或债券，不会产生任何可预期的现金流，投资者获取回报的唯一方式是比特币价格的上涨，因此更容易形成投机性泡沫，”威廉称，在市场调研中，经常会发现一些加10倍、20倍甚至100倍杠杆炒币的投资者，这都带来了巨大的投资风险。
“We should be conscious that Bitcoin is a high-risk asset rather than a hedge asset; and that Bitcoin, as a special asset class, unlike stocks or bonds, does not generate any predictable cash flow, and that the only way investors can obtain returns is by increasing the price of Bitcoin, which makes it easier to create speculative bubbles.” William said that in market research, a number of investors were often found to be 10 times, 20 times, or even 100 times leveraged, which poses a significant investment risk.
目前各界对比特币等虚拟货币的看法呈现出一定的分歧，各界认为，未来通胀和流动性将是最关键的指标。
At present, there is some divergence of views on virtual currencies, such as bitcoin, where inflation and liquidity will be the most critical indicators in the future.
威廉称，在去年12月比特币价格突破2万美元后，大量新投资者开始涌入。一些迹象表明市场的投资主力可能出现了结构性变化，可能由此前的机构投资者转向中小投资者。市场主力不同，对市场情绪、价格走势有着不小的影响。
William said that a large number of new investors had started pouring in after Bitcoin’s price broke by $20,000 last December. There were some indications that the market’s investment power might have changed structurally, possibly from its former institutional investors to small and medium-sized investors.
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