算力说
Let's be honest.
10月15日下午，稳定币USDT暴跌造成币圈恐慌，与之形成鲜明对比的是比特币等主流币以及其它稳定币上涨。“稳定币不稳定”，“空仓也能被套”成了段子广为流传。在这些现象背后，究竟是怎样的机制在发挥作用，而这起事件又将对稳定币的未来走势产生哪些深远的影响？中央财经大学金融学博士、区块链经济学家、链改顶层架构师吴桐和MakerDAO经济研究员兼中国区负责人潘超接受了算力智库的独家专访，从他们的回答中我们或许能预见未来。
In the afternoon of October 15, the stable currency USDT plunged into a panic in the currency circle, contrasting sharply with mainstream currency such as Bitcoin and other stable currency rises. “Stabilization currency is unstable,” and the “empty warehouse” became widely known.
10月15日下午，声称与美元1：1锚定汇率的USDT暴跌，一度跌破0.88美元。恐慌情绪在蔓延，投资者纷纷转向比特币等主流币以及其它稳定币。
In the afternoon of 15 October, the USDT, which claims to have a fixed exchange rate of 1:1 with the United States dollar, fell sharply, once to 0.88. Fears spread, with investors turning to mainstream currencies such as bitcoin and other stable currencies.
一位投资者向算力智库记者表示：“这一周USDT就不算特别稳定了，一度到达0.98。本来以为是选择了USDT作为避险，没想到居然成了韭菜。”
One investor said to the think tank, "This week, the USDT wasn't particularly stable, at one time reaching 0.98. It was supposed to have been chosen as a hedge, but it was not intended to be a pickle."
USDT 10月10日- 10月16日行情 截图来源：coinmarketcap官网
USDT October 10th - October 16th.
对于USDT暴跌背后的原因，中央财经大学金融学博士、区块链经济学家、链改顶层架构师吴桐从USDT的本质上分析了其存在暴跌风险的必然性：“没有监管、随意增发、不够透明的特点给市场做空者提供了机会，当市场认为Tether无法按照1：1将USDT兑换成美元时，非常容易造成恐慌性抛售。”
For the reasons behind the collapse of the USDT, the Central University of Finance and Finance's Ph.D. in Financial Sciences, block-chain economists and chain-changer Wu Qing analysed the inevitability of the risk of a collapse from the very nature of the USDT: “The lack of regulation, random growth and lack of transparency provide opportunities for the market to be empty, and when the market believes that Tether is unable to convert USDT into United States dollars in accordance with 1:1, it can easily cause fear to be sold.”
中央财经大学金融学博士、区块链经济学家、链改顶层架构师吴桐
Doctor of Finance, University of Central Finance and Economics, Block Chain Economist, chain-to-top architect, Wu Quan.
由此看来，USDT暴跌是有其必然性的。
In this light, the collapse of the USDT is inevitable.
如果说USDT暴跌只是时间问题，那么此前接连爆出的负面消息恰好让投资者的恐慌情绪不断发酵，更让USDT终于跌下神坛。
If it is only a matter of time before the USDT collapse, then the negative news that has preceded it has caused investors' panic to get worse and USDT to finally fall down the altar.
10月3日，彭博社报道称USDT托管银行Noble Bank资不抵债，失去包括Tether及加密货币交易所Bitfinex在内的多个客户，并正在寻找新买家。该报道及此后流传的一系列文章引起公众对于Bitfinex偿债能力的质疑。10月11日，Bitfinex即宣布暂停美元存提业务，质疑声再度袭来。10月15日，随即发生震惊币圈的暴跌事件。
On 3 October, Bloomberg reported that the USDT hosting bank, Noble Bank, had failed to pay its debts, lost a number of clients, including Tether and an encrypted currency exchange, Bitfinex, and was looking for new buyers. The story and a series of articles that followed raised public questions about Bitfinex’s solvenex’s solvency. On 11 October, Bitfinex announced a suspension of the dollar deposit, and the challenge hit again. On 15 October, there was an explosion in the currency ring.
稳定币，要你有何用？
Stable currency. What do you want?
经过这次事件，比特币等主流币受到了投资者的青睐，但是比特币的总量恒定，其通缩的特性决定了价格并不会稳定，因此在交易过程中稳定币的存在显得必不可少。
As a result of the incident, mainstream currencies, such as bitcoin, were favoured by investors, but the constant size of bitcoins, whose deflationary characteristics determined that prices would not be stable, made it essential to stabilize the existence of the currency in the course of the transaction.
吴博士认为，在市场牛市时，投资者往往关注币值的增值空间，而在市场熊市时，不跌或保值就成为很多投资者的基本要求。因此稳定币应运而生，并具有数字货币世界的“圣杯”之称。
According to Dr. Wu, while investors tend to focus on value-added spaces in the market for cattle, in the market for bear bears, it becomes a basic requirement for many investors not to fall or save. As a result, a stable currency is born with the name of the “Grail” of the digital currency world.
稳定币不管是基于法币、数字资产还是算法央行，其价格波动一般而言相对较小。在牛市，稳定币的主要职能是提供流动性，而在熊市稳定币又成了“避风港”。这也是为什么稳定币的市场份额在2018年下半年增长较快的原因。
Stable currency, whether based on French currency, digital assets, or arithmetical central banks, is generally relatively small in terms of price volatility. In the cattle market, the main function of a stable currency is to provide liquidity, while stability in the bear market becomes a “safe haven.” That is why the market share of a stable currency grew faster in the second half of 2018.
不求上涨但求保本，阻力位在哪里？
I don't want to go up, but I want to save my life. Where's the resistance?
根据相关媒体报道，目前锚定美元的稳定币主要有三种类别。
According to relevant media reports, there are three main categories of stable currencies currently anchored in the United States dollar.
第一类是以USDT和TUSD为代表的法定货币抵押类稳定币，一对一美元现金抵押证券。
The first category consists of a stable currency, represented by USDT and TUSD, with one-to-one dollar cash collateral.
第二类是以BASIS和CARBON为代表的弹性稳定担保类稳定币，可以通过智能合约模拟中央银行弹性调节Token供应量。
The second category is elastic stabilizers, represented by BASIS and CARBON, which can model central bank elasticities to regulate the supply of Token.
第三类是以Dai和BTS为代表的数字资产抵押类稳定币，它们基于去中心化的加密货币进行抵押。
The third category consists of digital asset encumbrances, represented by Dai and BTS, which are mortgaged on the basis of decentralised encrypted currencies.
据吴博士介绍，目前这三类稳定币各自存在阻力，并没有完美稳定币一说。只要是基于法币抵押的没有监管、随意增发、不够透明的稳定币都具有暴跌的潜在风险。
According to Dr. Wu, there are resistance to each of these three types of stable currencies, and there is no perfect stability. As long as French-based mortgages are unregulated, randomly increased, and insufficiently transparent, stable currencies run the potential risk of falling sharply.
另外，基于算法央行的数字货币由于没有法币和数字资产的抵押，其模式更类似于“庞氏骗局”。一旦来自需求端的投资者信心崩溃，供给端的调控就趋于无效。
Moreover, arithmetic-based central bank's digital currency is more similar to a “Ponzi scheme” in the absence of French currency and collateral for digital assets. Once investor confidence from the demand side collapses, supply-side regulation tends to be ineffective.
而基于数字资产抵押的稳定币宣称具有较为合理的机制，但在熊市时，由于抵押币值的普遍下降同样会产生系统性风险。
While stable currencies based on digital asset mortgages claim to have a reasonable mechanism, in the case of bear markets, there is also a systemic risk associated with the general decline in the value of mortgages.
这次USDT暴跌事件后，从各家稳定币的市场表现来看，基于数字资产抵押的稳定币代表Dai的溢价最低，成为最“稳定”之稳定币，印证了吴博士对其“较为合理的机制”的判断。
In the wake of the USDT crash, and in view of the market performance of the various stable currencies, a stable currency based on digital asset collateral represents the lowest premium for Dai and the most “stabilized” currency, confirming Dr. Wu's judgement that it is a “reasonable mechanism”.
Dai 10月10日- 10月16日行情 截图来源：coinmarketcap官网
Dai October 10th - October 16th.
可以确定的是，没有谁是刀枪不入的。
What's certain is that no one is invincible.
稳定币Dai发行方MakerDAO的经济研究员兼中国区负责人潘超向算力智库记者坦言：“Dai 现阶段所支持的抵押品只有以太坊，因此很大程度上会受以太坊价格波动的影响。”
The economic researcher and chief of the Chinese district, MakerDAO, who is the issuer of the stabilization currency, said, “Dai’s support for collateral at this stage is limited to Etheria and is therefore largely influenced by the volatility of the prices of Etheria.”
潘超表示，尽管不存在完美，也不必过于悲观。由于 Dai 是超额抵押，一般的波动不会对 Dai 的稳定性造成影响，可以抵御非常短时间内80%的市场下跌，但不排除出现极低概率的黑天鹅事件风险。这个季度，Dai将推出多种抵押担保，加入代币化的黄金，同时目前市场上ERC20的稳定币都可以作为 Dai 的抵押品，根本上分散 Dai 的风险并且扩大资产端的市值。
As Dai is over-collateral, general fluctuations do not affect Dai’s stability and can withstand 80% of market decline in a very short period of time, but do not exclude the risk of a very low probability of black swan event. This quarter, Da’i will introduce multiple collateral guarantees to include monetized gold, while the stable currency of the current market of ERC20 can be used as collateral for Da’i, fundamentally spreading Da’i’s risks and increasing the market value of assets.
MakerDAO经济研究员兼中国区负责人潘超
MakerDAO Economic Researcher and Head of the Chinese District, Pan Chao
稳定币大盘整，后市如何？
What about the rest of the city?
“很多人都被USDT套住了，包括专业的投资者和量化团队。大众对其信任一旦垮塌，USDT很难再实现与美元1：1的平价。这样一来，伴随其它稳定币的溢价，市场的计价单位就乱了，也会给交易者带来困惑。“潘超从行业的角度做出了他的预判：“未来市场中可能只剩下一到两种稳定币。”
“Many people are enslaved by the USDT, including professional investors and quantitative teams. Once popular trust collapses, it will be difficult for the USDT to achieve another 1:1 parity with the US dollar. In this way, the market’s unit of valor, accompanied by the premium of other stable currencies, will be in disarray and confusing for traders.
潘超认为，这少数的稳定币会集中在两个方向：一个是有中心机构托管的稳定币，这意味着这种稳定币拥抱监管，相当于传统金融领域的银行；另一个是点对点模式的稳定币，它基于区块链实现稳定币的发行和风控，没有中心化的风险且无需许可。
Pan believes that this minority of stable currencies will be concentrated in two directions: one with a stable currency hosted by a central institution, which means that such a stable currency embraces supervision and is equivalent to that of banks in the traditional financial sector; and the other one with a point-to-point model, which is based on the issuance and wind control of a stable currency in the block chain, without the risk of centralization and without the need for permission.
从宏观的角度，吴桐博士的预测则显得颇为保守：USDT没有监管、随意增发、不够透明的特点像是一个裂缝，尽管这次撕裂之后进行了一定程度的弥补，但以后破损的频率会更高。以USDT为代表的稳定币保证了数字货币市场的流动性，相对于其它种类的稳定币，针对法币抵押的稳定币仍会是主流。这类稳定币的抛售会带来市场流动性枯竭，进而导致更大的熊市。
At the macro level, Dr. Wu’s predictions are conservative: the USDT’s lack of regulation, random growth, and lack of transparency appear to be a crack, and although some compensation has been made after this breakup, the frequency of subsequent break-ups will be higher. The USDT-represented stable currency guarantees the liquidity of the digital currency market, and stable currencies against French currency collateral will remain the dominant against other types of stable currency.
这似乎为中国推出人民币稳定币创造了一个非常好的理由。
This seems to create a very good reason for China to introduce the renminbi as a stable currency.
吴博士补充道：“货币战争已经蔓延到了数字货币领域，以USDT、TUSD、GUSD为代表的数字货币本质上都是美元的数字化，由于其技术特点使得流动性更强。人民币国际化在遭受中国贸易顺差减小、经济全球化遇到挫折、具有贬值压力等影响下也面临着较为严峻的挑战，所以人民币稳定币应该选择在离岸市场推出，这对于人民币国际化、汇率市场化以及维护’金融高边疆’都具有十分重要的意义。”
Dr. Wu added: “The currency war has spread to the digital currency sphere, and the digital currencies represented by USDT, TUSD, and GUSD are essentially dollar-based digitized, with greater liquidity due to their technical characteristics. The renminbi internationalization is also faced with more serious challenges as a result of China’s reduced trade surplus, setbacks in the globalization of the economy, and the pressure of devaluation, so that the renminbi’s stable currency should be introduced in the offshore market, which is of great importance for the renminbi’s internationalization, exchange rate marketization, and the preservation of the ‘financial high margin’.”
文章所载观点仅代表作者本人
The view contained in the article is merely on behalf of the author.
且不构成投资建议
and does not constitute an investment proposal
敬请注意投资风险
Please pay attention to investment risks.
（本文来源微信公众号：算力智库）
(Source: Weiss Public: Arithmetic think tank)
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