原文标题：Upcoming Demand for Bitcoin Block Space and Its Impact on Mining Revenue
Original title: Upcoming Demand for Bitcoin Block Space and Its Impact on Mining Revenue
原文作者：Matthew Kimmell
This post is part of our special coverage Egypt Protests 2011.
原文来源：Medium
Source: Medium
编译：DAOSquare
This post is part of our special coverage Syria Protests 2011.
关键要点
每个人都在等待比特币区块奖励减半的到来。虽然社区中的很多人都在庆祝，但矿工们却更加担心，因为他们面临挖矿收入大幅减少。因此，正如故事通常会发展的那样，矿工们一直在积极为产量下降做准备。安装更高效的机器，减少债务，并乐观地希望（乞求？）比特币的市场价格暴涨。 Everyone is waiting for the Bitcoin block reward to be halved. While many people in the community are celebrating, miners are more worried that they are facing a substantial decline in mining revenues. So, as stories usually develop, miners have been actively preparing for a decline in production. 但是，如果我告诉你，这一次挖矿收入的其他因素可能会显着甚至完全抵消减半的影响呢？有史以来微不足道的交易费很有可能增加。而巧合的是，就在减半生效的确切时刻、确切的区块，它开始增加。 But what if I told you that other elements of this mining revenue could significantly or even completely offset the impact of halving it? There is a real possibility that transaction costs, which have historically been insignificant, will increase. 我对费用大幅增加的预测是基于许多比特币交易变化背后的动机。随着使用比特币区块空间的新方式，用户、开发者和企业的全新领域正在形成，他们的非货币用例正在为费用市场带来更高的差异。正如我们所知，简单的点对点电子现金系统正在采取更复杂的结算形式。这不是第一次，但它正在以前所未有的速度发生，以至于这些辅助用例正在成为费用市场的真正玩家。 As a new way of using bitcoin block space, new areas of users, developers, and businesses are emerging, their non-monetary usages are creating even greater differences in cost markets. As we know, simple point-to-point electronic cash systems are taking more complex forms of settlement. 用户正在选择使用外部软件，使他们能够以不同的角度看待比特币。其中一种就像戴上万花筒眼镜，让用户看到以独特的碎片形式分散的比特币供应，而不是它们实际上的同质化单位的流动海洋。另一个例子是读取可以附加到交易的数据文件，让用户声称拥有与他们收到的硬币所绑定的各种媒体的所有权（想想 NFT 就能明白这一点）。以及，一些人将许多交易中的某些标准化消息解释为外部资产的发行或支出，观察链上的任何此类交易，并为完全独立的记录系统创建所有权跟踪（想想侧链或者基于主链的 L2、L3…）。 Users are choosing to use external software to enable them to view Bitcoin from different angles. One is using a single case of a single case where users see a dispersed bitcoin supply in a unique form of debris, rather than their virtual homogenous unit flow ocean. Another example is reading data files that can be attached to a transaction, allowing users to claim ownership of the various media tied to the coins they receive (though NFT can see this) and some interpret certain standardized messages in many transactions as issuing or spending on external assets, observing any such transactions in the chain, and creating ownership tracking for a fully independent recording system (thinking of the side chain or L2, L3... based on the main chain). 这是非常规的。这也是颇具争议的。但这并非这篇文章的内容。我们不会讨论比特币的对或错、好或坏。本文将重点关注挖矿收入中讨论较少的部分：交易费用，以及比特币交易的不寻常需求向量如何可能抵消减半前后的收入损失。 This is unconventional. It is also controversial. But it is not part of this article. We will not discuss Bitcoin’s right or wrong, good or bad. 比特币交易需求的不寻常向量同质化代币标准 Unusual vector of demand for Bitcoin transactions 在比特币中引入新资产的最初努力是有创意的，但很粗糙。早期的实验实际上为流行的以太坊应用程序（以及以太坊本身）奠定了基础，同时突出了最终扼杀比特币采用的某些挑战。 The initial effort to introduce new assets in bitcoin was creative, but rough. Early experiments actually laid the foundation for popular e-Team applications (and the e-Teal itself) and highlighted some of the challenges that eventually stifled bitcoin adoption. Counterparty、Colored Coins 和 Mastercoin（后来更名为 Omni）等项目是更广泛的加密货币领域中的重大创新，并引领了首次代币发行（ICO）和去中心化交易所（DEX）以及其他几种先驱技术的诞生和流行。然而，它们未能在比特币社区中获得广泛的采用和接受。不受欢迎的文化、可扩展性和其他技术问题，加上这些用例在比特币之外的生态快速增长所带来的竞争环境，这些诸多因素遏制了他们的成功。这些项目的采用从未真正起飞，甚至逐渐淡出了人们的视线。 Projects such as Counterparty, Colorado Coins and Mastercoin (later renamed Omni) are major innovations in the wider area of cryptography and have led to the emergence and prevalence of the first generation of tokenization (ICO) and decentralization exchanges (DEX) and several other pioneering technologies. However, they have not been widely adopted and accepted in the Bitcoin community. Unwelcome cultural, scalability and other technical problems, combined with the competitive environment that these examples of rapid ecological growth outside Bitcoin, have constrained their success. 然而，对外部资产的需求再次上升。新的尝试并没有解决过去阻碍项目发展的挑战，但今天的市场时机使得情况有所不同。如今，人们对比特币的认识已经大大普及，风险投资也越来越多，而且，尽管听起来很愚蠢，但 meme 币投机热潮也无疑是这一趋势的重要贡献者。 However, the demand for external assets has risen again. The new attempt has not addressed the challenges of the past that have impeded project development, but today’s market timing has made the situation different. Today, the awareness of Bitcoin has become widespread, risk investments are increasing, and, while it sounds stupid, the meme speculator is undoubtedly an important contributor to this trend. 无论出于何种原因，或者是否可持续，我们都看到一些新的比特币代币项目带来了显著的交易需求增长。例如 BRC-20 资产，自 2023 年 3 月推出以来，已花费超过 1.8 亿美元（4.8k btc）费用用于发行和转账。这些交易占所有比特币交易的近三分之一（30%），自发布以来所产生的费用占比特币网络总费用的 17%。 For whatever reason, or whether it is sustainable, we see that some new bitcoin projects have led to significant increases in demand for transactions. For example, BRC-20 assets, since their launch in March 2023, have cost more than $180 million (4.8 k btc) for distribution and transfer. These transactions account for nearly one third (30%) of all bitcoin transactions, and since their issuance have cost 17% of the total Bitcoin network costs. 这与减半时的费用市场尤其相关，因为一种名为 Runes 的新标准正在推出，其具有明显的前期需求和日益增长的关注。 This is particularly relevant to the cost market when it is halved, as a new standard called Runes is being introduced, with obvious upfront needs and growing concerns. 对未来 Runes 代币的需求市值超过 12 亿美元，已经是所有 BRC-20 资产的一半，而且市场自 11 月左右才开放。请注意，Runes 代币的发行必须使用比特币交易，并且当 BRC-20 资产首次发行时，费用水平飙升至每笔交易超过 16 美元，每天超过 300 BTC。 The demand for future Runes is worth more than $1.2 billion, which is already half of all BRC-20 assets, and the market has been open only since around November. Note that the issue of Runes is subject to a bitcoin transaction, and when BRC-20 assets are first released, the cost level rises to more than $16 per transaction and more than 300 BTC per day. 潜在的影响是，当 Runes 代币发布时，比特币上将有大量的交易需求用于发行外部资产，而它们恰好在减半的同一区块高度。与此同时，其他标准也不会随着 Runes 的推出而放弃，BRC-20、Taproot Assets 和 RGB 的更新仍在进行中。 The potential effect is that when the Runes tokens are issued, the Bitcoins spend a large amount of transactional demand on issuing external assets, just as they halve the height of the same block. At the same time, other standards will not be abandoned with the introduction of the Runes, and BRC-20, Taproot Assets, and RGB are still being updated. 如果这些交易需求与 BRC-20 首次发布时相似，那么费用很可能达到每天 150 比特币，这样一来就抵消了减半导致的挖矿收入缩减的整整三分之一。 If the demand for these transactions is similar to that of BRC-20 when it was first released, the cost is likely to be 150 bitcoins per day, thus offsetting a full third of the cutback in mining revenues caused by halving. 然而，Runes 不会是唯一建立交易需求的催化剂。 However, Runes is not the only catalyst for creating transactional demand. 收藏品 Ordinals 协议公布了一种方法，让用户自愿同意一个追踪系统，用于追踪比特币的最小单位，称为聪（等于0.00000001 或 10^-8 btc）。根据 Ordinals 协议，每个单元都被赋予了一个有序编号。通过采用这样的标准，比特币的每一个细分都会沿着连续的数字线进行标记和识别，从第一个铸造的聪一直到最后一个被铸造的聪。换句话说，当以这种方式看待比特币单位时，每个聪都成为一个单独的不可替代单位。 The Ordinals agreements publish a method whereby users voluntarily agree to a tracking system to track the smallest units of Bitcoin, known as the deaf (equivalent to 0.000001 or 10-8 btc). According to the Ordinals protocols, each unit is assigned an orderly number. By adopting this standard, each of the bitcoins is marked and identified along a continuous digital line, from the first to the last. In other words, when the bitcoins are viewed in this way, each hearing becomes a separate and irreplaceable unit. 通过选择加入，用户还可以选择通过将任意数据文件附加到任何单元来为其可识别的聪嵌入额外的唯一性。这些文件称为铭文。用户可以将铭文与他们拥有的任何聪混合在一起，同时保留在比特币网络上传输和存储此类修改后的聪的能力，类似于普通的 BTC。 By opting in, the user can also choose to embed additional uniqueness for its identifiable hearing by attaching any data file to any cell. These documents are called inscriptions. Users can mix the inscriptions with any hearing they possess, while retaining the ability to transmit and store such modified hearing on the Bitcoin network, similar to the normal BTC. 这样一来，许多微小的比特币单位现在已经被指定为图像、文本甚至完整的视频游戏文件，使它们彼此之间具有独特的区别，并为投资者提供了以不同的方式对原本可替代的比特币单位进行估值的理由。 As a result, many tiny bitcoins have now been designated as image, text or even complete video game files, making them uniquely distinct from each other and providing investors with a different rationale for the valuation of alternative bitcoins. 由于数字意义或相关铭文，某些聪的收藏价值已经获得了公开市场的验证。 As a result of the digital significance or associated inscriptions, some of the intellectual collection values have been validated in the open market. 据我们所知，迄今为止一个聪的拍卖最高价为 24 万美元，其铭文名为 “创世纪猫 (Genesis Cat)”，被誉为具有文化和政治意义的 1/1 艺术品，它是一系列类似铭文的一部分，旨在象征和支持恢复比特币协议中先前被移除的功能。另一个没有附加铭文的聪以 165,100 美元的价格售出，因其来源可以追溯到比特币的第一个难度期，因此被宣传为稀有供应单位。 To our knowledge, a deaf auction has so far been sold at a maximum price of $240,000, the motto of which is Genesis Cat, a cultural and political one-in-one art, which is part of a series of similar inscriptions designed to symbolize and support the restoration of the previously removed functions of the Bitcoin agreement. Another deaf person, without an oblique, is sold at a price of $165,100, as its source can be traced back to the first difficult period of Bitcoin, and is therefore promoted as a rare supply unit. 这些销售的证据对于那些正在寻找昂贵聪的人来说是令人鼓舞的。在二级市场上以远高于其通常市场价格的售价转手比特币单位的目的是改变某些用户支付交易费用的倾向。可以肯定地说，收集一个聪的购买力可能高达数十万美元，这使得费用出价比大多数的点对点交易要高得多。 Evidence of these sales is encouraging for those who are looking for expensive hearing. Bitcoin units in secondary markets, at prices well above their usual market prices, are designed to change the tendency of some users to pay for transactions. 鉴于减半在比特币历史上是一个完全可预测且稀缺的事件，因此在收集聪和铭刻第一个区块的铭文方面必然会出现竞争。预计减半后对第一批铸造的聪的需求将非常有价值，以至于 Foundry USA 矿池甚至计划如果他们足够幸运地赢得区块，则将与矿工分享其收益。它可能是短暂的，但这种激烈的竞争几乎肯定会导致费用飙升。 Given that halving is an entirely predictable and scarce event in Bitcoin’s history, there is bound to be competition in the collection of the inscriptions of the first block. The need for the first set of words is expected to be very valuable after halving, so that the Foundry USA pool plans to share its benefits with the miners if they are lucky enough to win the blocks. 隐私交易 Privacy Transactions > /strong 非典型需求的另一种可能性是交易加速器。Marathon 在 2 月下旬推出了一款名为 Slipstream 的产品，通过让用户选择直接与 MARA Pool 进行通信和支付交易，从而为避开比特币的内存池（原生交易等待室）开辟了一条途径。与其他矿池相比，该产品在赚取费用方面没有提供可持续的优势，但仍有几个成功的例子。 Another possibility for an atypical demand is a transaction accelerator. Marathon launched a product called Slipstream in late February, which opens a way to avoid Bitcoin’s memory pool (original trading waiting room) by allowing users to choose to communicate and pay directly with MARA Pool. 尽管 Slipstream 等加速器并未广泛流行，但只要有足够的需求，它们就有可能以间接的方式提高手续费。如果交易直接提交到矿池，则不会提前为任何其他比特币用户所知。因此，用户可能会发现他们的交易，下一个要处理的交易实际上必须继续等待，因为那些直接提交到池子里的交易被偷偷地包括在内。这可能会让消费者对应该附加多少精确的手续费来鼓励及时处理交易感到困惑。随着足够的交易流向这些加速器，出现了一个手续费的多边市场，一个是作为比特币协议的一部分公开的，另一个则是隐私的。 Although accelerators such as Slipstream are not widely available, they are likely to raise fees indirectly as long as there is sufficient demand. If a transaction is submitted directly to a pond, it will not be known to any other Bitcoin user in advance. So, users may find their transactions, and the next transaction to be processed must actually continue to wait, because those directly submitted to a pool are secretly included. This may confuse consumers with the exact amount of fees that should be added to encourage the timely processing of transactions. As sufficient transactions flow to these accelerators, there is a multilateral market for fees, one that is made public as part of the Bitcoin agreement and the other that is private. 在极度紧急的情况下，用户可能会选择支付远超过公开市场实际预期的费用。这种混淆的费用市场可能会导致费用增加。我们并未看到这种情况在任何有意义的规模上真正发生，但它无疑值得关注。 In situations of extreme urgency, users may choose to pay far more than actually expected in the open market. This confusing cost market may lead to higher costs. We do not see this happening on any meaningful scale, but it is certainly a matter of concern. 矿工可提取价值（MEV） Miners can extract value (MEV) MEV 是比特币区块空间需求的另一个新兴维度。MEV 是指矿工有机会通过操纵区块内的交易顺序来赚取额外利润的情况。以前，MEV 主要是比特币的一个潜在特性，由于其更严格的特性和更简单的交易模型，这种特性通常受到限制。然而，由于比特币软件的变化，以及一些用户进行比特币交易的方式改变，MEV 的可能向量将变得更加明显，正如我们在这篇文章中提到的。以下是简要说明： MEV is another emerging dimension of Bitcoin block space demand. MEV refers to cases where miners have an opportunity to earn extra profits by manipulating the order of transactions within blocks. Previously, MEV was a potential feature of Bitcoin, which was usually limited by its stricter characteristics and simpler trading models. However, as a result of changes in Bitcoin software and the way some users deal in bitcoin, the possible vector of MEV will become more visible, as we mentioned in this article. 再次减半意味着区块奖励的再次减少，以及交易费用对矿工重要性的相对增加。这可能会为矿工提供额外的动力，从而推动与交易选择相关的利益，并寻求多样化的收入方式。作为高度竞争行业中的雇佣军，我们认为，MEV 战略至少会被尝试。 Halving it again means re-cutting block incentives and increasing the relative importance of transaction costs for miners. This may provide additional incentives for miners to promote the benefits associated with trading choices and to seek diversified income options. As mercenaries in highly competitive industries, we believe that the MEV strategy will at least be tried out. 交易费市场与矿工的关系越来越密切 比特币交易需求的多样化可能在挖矿经济中起到救赎的作用。由于减半事件减少了区块奖励，比特币区块空间的这些新用途可能会显著增加交易费用。这对矿工来说至关重要，因为这些费用可以抵消区块奖励的损失并保持其盈利能力。 These new uses of Bitcoin block space are likely to significantly increase transaction costs. This is critical for miners, as they offset the loss of block incentives and maintain their profitability. 如前所述，近期费用的增加将受到新的细分市场竞争加剧的推动，包括发行外部资产和寻找独特的收藏品。这些应用不仅会带来额外的交易费用，而且还可能鼓励对交易处理采取更具战略性的方法。 As noted earlier, recent cost increases will be driven by increased competition in new segmented markets, including the issuance of external assets and the search for unique collections. These applications not only entail additional transaction costs, but may also encourage a more strategic approach to transaction processing. 归根结底，向更复杂和依赖交易费用的经济模式的转变凸显了理解和利用新的需求载体以保持竞争力的重要性。 Ultimately, the shift towards a more complex and transaction-cost-dependent economic model underscores the importance of understanding and using new demand carriers to maintain competitiveness. 展望未来，目前的交易费用水平预计将占减半后挖矿收入的 14% 左右，这一数字已经是过去几年的数倍。但是，我预计这个百分比将会变得更高，在某些区块中将远远超过 50%。回顾 2023 年底的两个月期间，这主要是由于对铭文的高需求所推动的，平均费用水平占将减半后挖矿收入的 30%。如果只是重复这个平均值（每天 193 BTC），就将可以覆盖掉因减半影响的 43%。 Looking ahead, the current level of transaction costs is expected to account for about 14 per cent of mining revenues after halving, a number of times over the past few years. But, I expect that percentage to be higher, far more than 50 per cent in some blocks. 鉴于目前的发展轨迹，在本次减半期，交易费用可能成为矿工的主要收入来源，这是完全合理的。然而，这些非货币需求驱动因素的可持续性仍然是一个悬而未决的问题，它们是否引领了比特币交易市场的长期转变，还是只是牛市的短暂症状？只能等待时间的验证。返回搜狐，查看更多 Given the current development trajectory, transaction costs could be a major source of income for miners during the current 50-percent period, which is entirely justified. However, the sustainability of these non-monetary demand drivers remains an open question, whether they lead the long-term transformation of the Bitcoin trading market, or are they just brief symptoms of the cattle market? returns to search for more 责任编辑：
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