吴说作者 | 谈叔
本期编辑 | Colin Wu
, editor of this issue Colin Wu
近些天来，在许多交易所的场外交易平台，USDT兑换人民币的价格出现了溢价，以火币为例，4月4日，火币OTC上USDT的价格达到了6.79元，而美元的外汇牌价则为6.56元，出现了多达3%的溢价。这样的溢价，是否说明有更多的场外资金在入场呢？
In recent days, in many exchange platforms, the USDT exchange price for the renminbi has been premiumed, for example, in the case of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. On April 4, the price of the Democratic Democratic Republic of the Congo's Democratic Republic of the Congo Democratic Republic of the Congo currency on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea was $6.79, while the dollar's foreign exchange price was $6.56, representing a premium of up to 3%.
1 USDT作为稳定币能够稳定的原因
1 USDT as a reason to stabilize the currency
作为法币与加密货币的桥梁，USDT一直有两个大类的市场，其一是各种加密货币兑换USDT的市场，包括中心化交易所和Defi上的市场；其二则是USDT1:1兑换美元的市场，这个市场主要由USDT官方兑换、大宗场外交易商和一些合规交易所的USDT/USD交易对所组成。
As a bridge between French and encrypted currencies, USDT has always had two broad types of markets, one for the exchange of various encrypted currencies to USDT, including the centralized exchange and the market on Defi; and the other for USD 1:1 for the dollar, which consists mainly of the official exchange of USDT, large off-the-shelf dealers and a number of compliance exchanges.
USDT兑换各种加密货币的价格由市场决定，Tether公司无法干预。但USDT兑换美元的价格，Tether则必须确保为1:1，否则USDT就无法发挥稳定币的作用。所以，Tether官方承诺USDT和USD1:1的兑换，对于一些大宗的美元场外交易商，同样依赖于Tether的官方兑换。
The price of USDT to exchange various encrypted currencies is determined by the market, and Tether is unable to intervene. But the price of USDT to exchange dollars must be 1:1, or the USDT will not be able to act as a stable currency. So Tether’s official commitment to USDT and USD1:1 conversions is also dependent on Teth’s official exchange for a number of major dollar off-the-shelf traders.
但是查阅Tether官网可以得知，官方兑换美元的门槛为至少10万美金，手续费则为1000美金或是兑换金额*0.001之间的更高者，由此可见，对于散户来说，去Tether官方并非最优选择。
However, a review of Tether’s network shows that the official threshold for conversion to the United States dollar is at least US$ 100,000, with a fee of US$ 1,000 or a higher amount of *0.001, which means that travel to Tether is not the best option for the diaspora.
而在Tether的[用户条款]中，则有这么一段话：
And in Tether's [user clause], there's this:
“Tether保留在Tether的储备资产发生流动性问题或是产生损失时，延迟兑换给用户美元的的权利，同时Tether保留兑换给用户证券或是其他Tether持有的储备资产的权利。”
“Teher reserves the right to postpone conversion to the user's United States dollar in the event of liquidity problems or loss of Tether's reserve assets, while Tether retains the right to convert to the user's securities or to reserve assets held by other Tether.”
也就是说，当用户拿着USDT去找Tether兑换美元的时候，Tether有可能没钱可兑，也可能只能给用户一些它所持有的等价物。
In other words, when the user takes the USDT to see Tether for the United States dollar, there is a risk that Tether may have no money to treasuries or that he may only give the user some of the equivalents it holds.
众所周知，Tether并不持有相当于其usdt发行总量的美元，而是持有同等数量的资产，这些资产由哪些东西构成，目前Tether尚未向外界公布。
It is well known that Tether does not hold United States dollars equivalent to the amount of its Usdt issue, but holds an equal amount of assets consisting of what is currently not disclosed to the outside world.
因而，Tether保持USDT稳定币汇率的主要做法，则是通过在USDT/USD交易对做市来保持1:1的汇率。目前有USDT/USD的交易所主要有三个，分别是Bitfinex（24小时交易量7000多万美元），Kraken（24小时交易量4000多万美元）和FTX（3000多万美元），三者24小时交易量总和为1.5亿美元，对于拥有400多亿资产的Tether来说，通过做市维持汇率轻而易举。
As a result, the principal way for Tether to stabilize the currency exchange rate is to maintain a 1:1 exchange rate by trading in USDT/USD. Currently, there are three major USDT/USD exchanges, namely Bitfinex (more than $70 million in 24-hour transactions), Kraken (more than $40 million in 24-hour transactions) and FTX (more than $30 million), with a total transaction volume of $150 million in 24-hour transactions, which is easy for Teher, with more than 40 billion assets.
2 为何USDT兑换人民币会出现溢价
2 > why USDT would have a premium on the renminbi .
在人民币用户领域，USDT并不存在兑换法币的场内市场，而只有场外交易，由于场外交易的高度分散化，对于Tether公司来说，显然无法找到有效的做市手段将汇率维持在1:1。任何价格的偏离，都是因为供需平衡发生了变化，而USDT的价值偏离美元兑换人民币的官方汇率，则有两种可能。
In the area of renminbi users, there is no off-the-shelf market for French currency exchange, and only off-the-shelf transactions, owing to the high degree of fragmentation of off-the-shelf transactions, clearly do not find effective market-based means for Tether to keep the exchange rate at 1:1. Any price deviation is due to a change in the balance of supply and demand, while the value of the USDT deviates from the official exchange rate of the dollar for the renminbi.
其一是场外交易的供需平衡被打破，供不应求，卖家满足不了巨大的市场需求，因而USDT产生了溢价；
One of them is that the supply-demand balance of off-the-shelf transactions has been broken, and the seller has not been able to meet the huge market demand, thereby creating a premium for USDT;
其二是场内加密货币的供求平衡被打破，人们正在将加密货币换成稳定币，从而使USDT产生了溢价。
The second is the breakdown of the supply and demand balance of encrypted currency in the field, which is being exchanged for a stable currency, thereby creating a premium for USDT.
无论发生以上哪种情况，都需要Tether公司增大USDT的供应，以保证汇率稳定。在2020年3月12日，市场处于极度恐慌情绪，许多人急着将加密货币换成稳定币避险，因而造成了usdt兑换人民币的巨幅溢价，最高达到7.8。
Either way, Tether’s supply needs to be increased to ensure exchange rate stability. On March 12, 2020, the market was in a state of extreme panic, with many eager to replace encrypted currencies with stable currency to avoid risk, resulting in a huge premium on usdt’s exchange of the renminbi, up to 7.8.
3 为何无法通过搬砖套利搬平
3 > > > >. >. > >. > >. > >.
如果USDT场外兑换人民币的汇率相比官方汇率溢价3%，在外汇领域，属于巨大的套利空间，用户可以用美元从Tether直接购买USDT，在人民币场外市场卖出，将获得的人民币换成美元，如此反复操作。但事实上并没有人这么做，从而导致溢价一直存在，主要有两个原因。
If the exchange rate for currency exchange off the USDT field is 3% of the official exchange rate premium, and in the foreign exchange area it is a huge arbitrage, the user can buy it directly from the United States dollar and sell it from the Tether market outside the renminbi field, and then exchange the RMB for the United States dollar, so repeatedly. But in fact, no one has done so, leading to a constant premium, mainly for two reasons.
第一，外汇管制的原因。目前我国居民每人每年度只有5万美元的换汇额度，且向外汇款有诸多限制，导致基本上无法直接向Tether购买USDT；
First, the reasons for the exchange controls. At present, our residents have an exchange limit of $50,000 per person per year, and there are restrictions on foreign exchange payments, which make it virtually impossible to purchase USDT directly from Tether;
第二，市场上存在诸多黑钱。即使解决了换汇的问题，当用户将搬砖的USDT卖出，换取大量的人民币时，有一定概率收到来路不明的资金，导致银行账号被冻或是更麻烦的事，得不偿失。
Second, there are a lot of black money in the market. Even if the exchange of money is resolved, when users sell bricks of the USDT in exchange for large amounts of renminbi, there is a certain probability of receiving funds that are unaccounted for, resulting in bank accounts being frozen or in more trouble.
目前USDT的溢价刚好伴随了BTC价格从60000美金的下跌，因而此次溢价的产生，可能更多地来自于场内玩家将加密货币换成稳定币，而不是场外人民币玩家的跑步进场。比如神鱼DeFi视频中某大户DeFi挖fei超过10亿美金的充值，预计不仅是自有稳定币，还从外部借了许多USDT。
The current USDT premium, which has been accompanied by a fall in BTC prices from $60,000, is likely to be generated more by the exchange of encrypted currency for stable currency by field players, rather than by the run-in of foreign renminbi players. For example, a large family, DeFi, who digs over $1 billion in DeFi video, is expected not only to have a stable currency, but also to borrow many USDTs from outside.
不过也有一些OTC商表示，目前场外新人进入较多，尤其是Filecoin非常火爆出圈；以及传统OTC商遭到政府严查洗钱打击。这也可能是造成U溢价的原因之一。
There are, however, some OTC traders who indicate that there are now more out-of-the-field newcomers, especially Filecoin, who is very hot; and that traditional OTC traders are subjected to severe government scrutiny for money-laundering. This may also be one of the causes of the U.U. premium.
风险提示
risk hint
根据银保监会等五部门发布的《关于防范以“虚拟货币”“区块链”名义进行非法集资的风险提示》，请大家树立正确的投资理念，本文内容报道不对任何经营与投资活动推广进行背书，请投资者提高风险防范意识。吴说区块链刊载内容未经许可，禁止进行转载、复制及建立镜像等任何使用，违者将追究法律责任。
欢迎阅读吴说报道精选：火币独家报道、币安独家报道、比特大陆系列、监管与冻卡系列、Filecoin系列、币圈乱象揭弊、矿场监管动态等
welcomes reading of Wu's report selections: exclusive on the gun, exclusive on the currency, the Bit mainland series, the regulatory and frozen card series, the Filecoin series, currency hysteria, mining regulatory developments, etc.
注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
发表评论