【美国经济开启衰退模式——美国二季度经济展望】我们预测2023年美国经济增速-1.2%。美联储加息的效果开始出现，银行业遭遇2008年金融危机以来最大风险。美联储继续加息或将导致金融系统受到更大冲击。美国高储蓄，高信贷，高库存，经济抵抗风险的能力已经较弱。美国未来12个月衰退概率已经创40年历史新高。美国经济衰退可能从二季度开始。
The Fed continues to raise interest rates, or will cause a greater impact on the financial system. America’s high savings, high credit, high stocks, and weak economic resilience to risk.
美联储面临两难困境，但货币超调难以避免，经济深度衰退后可能快速转入降息。由于美国经济的结构性问题，美国经济浅衰退无法促使通胀持续回落，劳动力市场迟迟无法进入收缩阶段，通胀就存在反弹风险，美联储不得不持续加息，这必然会造成货币超调，经济进入深度衰退。当经济发生衰退时，可能已经是危机状态，美联储货币政策需要迅速从加息进入降息。
As a result of the structural problems of the US economy, the US economy’s shallow recession has not been able to contribute to a sustained fall in inflation, the risk of rebounding in the labor market and the Fed’s having to continue to raise interest rates is bound to cause currency overscaling and a deep recession. When the economy is in recession, it may already be in a state of crisis, and the Fed’s monetary policy needs to move quickly from interest hikes to interest cuts.
据美国监管机构消息，第一公民银行(First Citizens BancShares)将收购硅谷银行的所有存款和贷款。
According to United States regulators, First Citizens Bank (First Citizens Bankes) will acquire all deposits and loans from Silicon Valley Bank.
比特币截止发稿前日K线最高28000，最低26500，下跌了1500多点，短空不可避免这波高位盘整持续了十几天，K线终究开始下探了EMA15均线支撑，刚好在26500，有了第一次短期内预计还会再次下探，下一步支撑点关注25300和24300两个日线支撑点，MACD持续放量下行，KDJ向下跳水，布林带中轨支撑点关注25300，
Bitcoin had 28,000 tops and 26,500 minimums in the day before its release, dropping by more than 1,500 points. Inevitably, the wave height plate lasted for more than 10 days. The Kline finally began to explore the EMA15 average, just at 26,500, and was expected to do it again in the first short term. Next, it focused on the 25300 and 24300 supporting points, the MACDs continued to go down, KDJ jumped down, and the Boolin track supporting points focused on 25300.
再来看短线四小时K线趋势目前已经跌破EMA90，虽说行情回调至EMA60，但是下方支撑26500并不是很强，MACD缩量下行，KDJ也开始跳水，K线也跌破了布林带下轨，27100如果迟迟上不去，那么短期内会迎来空势，思路上要做一调整，高位空为主，多为辅
If you look at the four-hour shortline K-line trend, which has now fallen through the EMA90 trend, and although it's going back to EMA60, it's not strong, the MACD is down, KDJ is down, K-J is down, K-line is out of the way, and if it's too late, it's going to take off in the short term.
建议：
Recommendations:
上方：27300-27500不破，空，目标27000-26700-26400，破位看26100，止损300点
Up: 27300-27500 open, target 27000-267000-26400, breach 26100, stop damage by 300 points
下方：26100-25900不破，多，目标26400-26700-27000，破位看276300，止损300点
Below: 26100-2590, large, target 26400-267000-27000, broken 276300, closed 300 points
行情瞬息万变，勿贪，具体操作以实时策略为主，分析主做参考,风险自担
There's no need to be greedy. It's a real-time strategy. It's an analysis. It's risk-taking.
以太坊截止发稿前日K线最高1780，最低1686，行情跌破了早先的1710附近的支撑点，短空来袭，早先提到过EMA追上K线以后行情就会出现一波反转，下方支撑点关注1650和1630区间，MACD持续放量下行，即将开始缩量，KDJ开始向下扩散，K线开始触及布林带中轨支撑点1675，顶部还在拉伸，不排除主力虚晃一枪的可能，一定要带好止盈止损，
The top of the K Line was 1780, the bottom 1686, which fell through earlier support points in the vicinity of 1710, short-space strikes, a wave of reversals after the earlier mention of EMA catching up to the K Line, the lower support point focusing on the 1650 and 1630 sectors, the continued release of the MACD, the imminent scaling down of KDJ, the beginning of the spread of KDJ, the beginning of the Kline to reach the 1675 middle-track support point in the Boolean Belt, and the stretching of the top, which does not exclude the possibility of the main stumping of a gun, and the need to keep it in check-out.
四小时短线趋势来看，K线已经跌破了EMA均线，MACD也开始缩量下行，K线向下扩散整体趋势偏空，加上布林带开始收小口，早起的支撑点1715也已经跌破了，下方已经有不小的空间，不得不防，思路上建议回调空为主，多为辅
The four-hour short-line trend shows that the Kline has fallen through the EMA average, that the MACD has started to shrink down, that the overall trend of the K Line is evaporated downwards, and that the Brenn belt has begun to close, and that the early support point of 1715 has fallen.
建议
Recommendations
上方1750-1740不破，空，目标1710-1680-1650，破位看1620，止损30点
1750-1740 above open. Target 1710-1680-1650, 1620 down. 30 o'clock.
下方1610-1620不破，多，目标1650-1680-1710，破位看1740，止损30点
1610-1620 below. More. Target 1650-1680-1710.
行情瞬息万变，勿贪，具体操作以实时策略为主，分析主做参考,风险自担
There's no need to be greedy. It's a real-time strategy. It's an analysis. It's risk-taking.
本文由币圈院士独家供稿，仅代表院士独家观点返回搜狐，查看更多
This paper, which is submitted by an exclusive banker, represents an exclusive view of the court returning to search for more .
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