在过去十天里，以太坊(ETH)的价格持续上涨，累计涨幅达到了21.5%，逼近2,800美元大关。这一加密货币的上涨趋势得益于近期在美国推出的现货比特币(51,782美元)交易所交易基金(ETF)的强大资金流入。值得一提的是，以太坊还受到其他额外因素的推动，有望助其价格冲破3,000美元这一关键心理关口——这一水平在2022年3月的上一次尝试中曾遭遇挫败。那么，此次以太坊能否成功站稳3,000美元上方，其走势是否与上次有所不同呢?
Over the past 10 days, the price of the Etherms has continued to rise, with a cumulative increase of 21.5%, close to US$ 2,800. The trend in this encrypted currency has been facilitated by a strong inflow of funds from the recently launched spot-based Bitcoin (US$ 51,782) Exchange Trading Fund (ETF) in the United States.
从看涨的角度来看，以太坊可能巩固其作为第二种在美国交易所上市现货ETF的加密货币的领导地位。这将使其在获取和监管方面与Solana(109美元)和BNB(352美元)等竞争对手区别开来。包括币安和Coinbase在内的交易所仍面临美国证券交易委员会(SEC)有关证券发行的诉讼。因此，美国以太坊ETF的批准将大大减少其投资者的不确定性。
From an upswing perspective, it is likely that Taipan will consolidate its position as the second real-time ETS currency to be marketed on an American exchange. This would distinguish it from competitors such as Solana ($109) and BNB ($352) in terms of access and regulation.
以太坊的其他积极驱动因素包括预计于3月13日进行的Dencun网络升级。此次硬分叉的目的之一是降低以太坊第二层上的交易成本。通过提供更多的区块空间和降低rollup的燃气成本，这些变化可能会推动其去中心化应用(DApps)的使用量增加，并增加其智能合约中的存款。这反过来又转化为对ETH的更高需求。
Among other positive drivers in the Taiku are the scheduled upgrade of the Dencun network on March 13. One of the objectives of this hard split is to reduce transaction costs on the second floor of the Tai Po. By providing more block space and reducing the gas costs of the rollup, these changes may drive the use of decentralised applications (DApps) and increase the amount of deposits in their smart contracts.
以太坊多头有充分的理由相信3,000美元触手可及，但历史表明维持这一价格水平要困难得多。例如，在2022年4月3日之前的三周里，ETH上涨了42%，从2,520美元上涨至3,580美元。然而，事实证明这种涨势难以持续，因为其价格在接下来的40天内暴跌了46%。交易员们现在质疑以太坊这次是否会面临类似的结果。
For example, in the three weeks prior to April 3, 2022, ETH rose by 42%, from $2,520 to $3,580. However, this increase proved to be unsustainable, as prices fell by 46% in the next 40 days. Traders now question whether Ether will face similar results this time.
人们应该分析的第一个指标是以太坊的期货溢价，它表明多头(买家)和空头(卖家)之间的杠杆需求。专业交易员倾向于选择月度期货合约，因为没有可变的融资利率，但这些工具通常以5%至10%的溢价进行交易，以补偿其延长的结算期。
The first indicator that one should analyse is the Taiwan futures premium, which shows the need for leverage between multiple (buyers) and empty (sellers). Professional traders tend to choose monthly futures contracts because there are no variable financing rates, but these instruments are usually traded at a premium of 5 to 10% to compensate for their extended settlement period.
数据显示，2月10日，以太坊期货溢价飙升至10%的中性阈值以上，目前徘徊在15%左右。尽管这并不被视为过高，但这个水平表明，随着以太坊从2,300美元上涨至目前的2,800美元水平，多头需求了额外的杠杆。相比之下，2022年4月初的年化溢价(基础利率)为5.5%，被认为是中性的。
The data show that, on 10 February, the price of the Taiyo futures premium skyrocketed to above the 10% neutral threshold, currently hovering around 15%. Although this is not considered too high, this level suggests that additional leverage was needed as the district rose from US$ 2,300 to its current US$ 2,800 level.
人们应该分析期权市场，以更好地衡量专业交易员如何使用25%的delta skew作为代理进行定位。如果交易员预期以太坊的价格下跌，skew指标将上升超过7%，而兴奋期通常会有-7%的skew。
One should analyse the options market in order to better measure how professional traders use 25% delta skew as agents. If traders are expected to fall at Tai Jin’s price, the skew indicator will rise by more than 7%, and the excitement will normally be -7%.
2月9日，delta skew指标进入牛市市场的-7%阈值，目前处于三个月来的最低水平。这些发现与以太坊期货数据相符，并描绘出一幅适度乐观的画面，这并不过度，但多头和空头之间也不平衡。
On 9 February, delta skew entered the cattle market at a threshold of -7%, which is currently at its lowest level in three months. These findings are consistent with the Etherpau futures data and provide a reasonably optimistic picture, which is not excessive, but also uneven between multiple head and empty.
基于以太坊现货ETF获批的可能性而押注价格上涨的交易员可能会感到失望，尤其是如果他们使用杠杆的话。即使彭博高级ETF分析师的批准概率达到70%，SEC的最终截止日期为5月23日，这意味着价格波动带来了巨大的清算风险，即使ETH在事件之前突破3,000美元也是如此。然而，与2022年4月的以太坊衍生品指标相比，现在的情况完全不同，因此对于以太坊多头来说，一切尚未确定。
Dealers who risked price increases on the basis of the possibility of obtaining an ETF in Taiwan may be disappointed, especially if they use leverage. Even if Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst had a 70% approval probability, and the final deadline for SEC was 23 May, this meant that price volatility posed a significant liquidation risk, even if ETH had passed $3,000 before the event.
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