仅仅一夜，全球最大的加密货币比特币价格突破30000美元关键阻力位，最高突破至30800美元，创2023年4月以来的最高价。而美联储主席鲍威尔的证词，竟是这波行情的最大催化剂。
In just one night, the world’s largest encoded currency, bitcoin, reached a critical barrier of $30,000, up to $30,800, the highest since April 2023. And the Fed President Powell’s testimony is the biggest catalyst for this.
鲍威尔周三出席众议院金融服务委员会接受质询，当他回应议员Maxine Waters询问稳定币发行商是否应该获得美联储许可和监管时，他回应称：“美联储确实将稳定币(stablecoins)视为一种货币形式，不过在所有发达经济体中，货币可信度的最终来源仍是央行。”
Powell was questioned by the House Committee on Financial Services on Wednesday, when he responded to Congressman Maxine Waters asking whether stable currency issuers should be licensed and regulated by the Fed, saying: “The Fed does view stable currencies as a monetary form, but in all developed economies the ultimate source of monetary credibility remains the central bank.”
此外，鲍威尔还称比特币作为一种资产类别具有持久力，这番评价确实让市场感到惊讶。因为此前鲍威尔等监管者一直担心加密货币的波动性和潜在风险，而此次表态意味着政策制定者们开始认识到数字资产在未来可能扮演的角色，这是一个积极的信号，被视为监管立场的转变，使得更多的机构投资者和个人投资者对加密货币市场感到安心，从而推动比特币价格和市值上涨。
In addition, Powell’s assertion that bitcoin is sustainable as an asset class is indeed surprising to the market. Since regulators like Powell have been concerned about the volatility and potential risks of encrypted currency, this pronouncement means that policymakers are beginning to recognize the potential role of digital assets in the future, which is a positive sign of a shift in regulatory positions that has led more institutional and individual investors to feel comfortable with the crypto-currency market, thus pushing up the price and market value of bitcoin.
Kitco高级技术分析师Jim Wyckoff表示，比特币的上涨导致7月份比特币期货价格飙升，他指出，期货价格在周三美国早盘交易中触及6周高点。他分析称：“多头最近获得了坚实的实力，现在拥有整体近期技术优势，因为每日条形图上的价格下跌趋势已被否定。多头势头强劲，正在寻求更多上行空间。”
According to Jim Wyckoff, a senior technical analyst for Kitco, the increase in Bitco’s currency led to a surge in Bitco’s futures prices in July, he noted that futures prices had reached a six-week high on Wednesday’s U.S. morning trade. He analysed that “many recently gained solid strength and now have overall near-term technological advantage, because the downward trend in prices on the daily bar charts has been rejected.
Matrixport研究主管Markus Thielen解释：“自1月初以来，比特币的交易价格一直高于200日移动均线，市场参与者通常用该水平来判断资产是处于牛市(上方)还是熊市(下方)。3月美国银行业危机后，比特币交易回到这个200天的水平，但成功拒绝了它，我们仍处于牛市中。”
Markus Thielen, head of the Matirxport study, explained that “since the beginning of January, Bitcoin's transaction prices have been above the 200-day moving average, and market participants usually use that level to judge whether assets are in the cattle market (up above) or the bear market (down below). After the March banking crisis in the United States, Bitcoin's deal returned to that 200-day level, but it was successfully rejected, and we are still in the cattle market.”
由于美国通货膨胀“远高于”应有水平，未来可能会进一步加息。自去年开始，关于未来加息可能性的言论已经对加密货币市场产生了一定的负面影响，导致比特币等数字资产价格下跌。
Since last year, statements about the likelihood of future interest hikes have had some negative impact on the crypto-currency market, leading to a fall in the price of digital assets, such as bitcoins.
不过现在鲍威尔表示，利率水平和加息速度是分开的。早期进程中速度很重要，现在不那么重要了。适度提高利率可能是合理的决策。我们现在正在适度放缓这一步伐。或许以更温和的步伐上调利率是有意义的。
But now Powell says that interest rate levels and rate increases are separate. Speed is important in the early stages, and it is less important now. A modest increase in interest rates may be a reasonable decision. We are now slowing down the pace modestly.
与此同时，随着传统金融巨头们逐渐进入加密市场，并推出加密交易平台、信托基金和申请比特币ETF等产品，这些举措将为加密市场带来更多的流动性和信任，吸引更多的机构投资者和专业投资者进入市场，同时也增强了市场的透明度和稳定性，更多的资金也将通过传统机构架起的桥梁进入加密世界。
At the same time, as traditional financial giants gradually enter the encryption market and launch encryption trading platforms, trust funds and applications for products such as Bitcoin ETFs, these initiatives will bring more liquidity and trust to the encryption market, attract more institutional and professional investors to the market, and also increase market transparency and stability, with more funds entering the encrypted world through bridges built up by traditional institutions.
在这种背景下，虽然美联储加息可能会短期内对加密市场产生负面影响，但长期来看，这种影响可能会减弱。加密市场已经逐渐成为一个重要的资产类别，越来越多的机构投资者正在认识到它的潜力和价值，在未来可能会继续注入更多的资金，使得加密市场不断发展壮大。
Against this background, while the Fed’s interest hike may have a negative impact on the encryption market in the short term, in the long run it may have diminished. The encryption market has gradually become an important asset class, and an increasing number of institutional investors are recognizing its potential and value and are likely to continue to inject more money into the future, allowing the encryption market to grow.
甚至有位KOL表示，美联储和币圈没有直接关联了，因为受到美联储情绪影响的主流机构去年已经退出了币圈，现在是黑暗森林，对于比特币，鲍威尔说了不算，交易所老板说了算，狗庄说了算，涨跌，都看需要。
Even one KOL said that there was no direct link between the Fed and the currency circle, because the mainstream agencies affected by the Fed’s moods had withdrawn from the currency circle last year and now are in the dark forest. For Bitcoin, Powell said it was not true, the exchange owner was in charge, the dog was in charge, and it went up and down, depending on the need.
总结
Summary
近期，加密市场经历了多重利好因素的影响，包括传统金融机构进入市场以及美联储主席鲍威尔对比特币的正面评价等。
More recently, the encryption market has experienced the influence of multiple positive factors, including access by traditional financial institutions and the positive assessment of US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell Bitcoin.
虽然过去美联储加息一度对加密市场产生负面影响，但目前来看，这种影响力已经减弱。随着越来越多的机构和投资者进入加密货币市场，加密货币的认可度和使用量将继续增加，这可能会推动市场的长期稳定和成熟。
Although the Fed’s interest hikes have had a negative impact on the encryption market in the past, this influence has now diminished. As more institutions and investors enter the encrypted money market, the recognition and use of encrypted money will continue to increase, which may contribute to the long-term stability and maturity of the market.
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