原创： 冯仑风马牛 来源：微信公众号冯仑风马牛
封面题图|《疯狂的石头》
1999 年，英国职业寻宝人迈克·哈彻在南中国海发现了‘泰兴号’沉船。这艘 1822 年触礁沉没的商船载有百万件中国瓷器。海底‘沉睡’177 年之后，这些清代德化瓷器被打捞出水。
In 1999, the British professional treasure hunter, Mike Hacher, discovered the wreck of the "Tashing" in the South China Sea. This merchant ship, which hit the reef in 1822, carried millions of Chinese china. After 177 years of `sleeping' under the sea, the Qing Dynasty china was pulled out of the water.
为了更好地炒作，卖个高价，迈克·哈彻和他的同伙们将其中 65 万件品相一般的瓷器敲碎，推入大海，只保留了剩下的 35.6 万件。即使不懂经济学、不明白‘供求关系’，绝大多数人也懂得‘物以稀为贵’的道理。在随后的拍卖会上，这 35.6 万件瓷器被哄抢一空，迈克·哈彻赚得盆满钵满。
In order to make a better deal and sell it at a high price, Mike Harcher and his associates smashed and pushed 650,000 of the generic china into the sea, leaving only 356,000 left. Even if the `supply and demand' did not understand economics, the vast majority of people understood the `value of things'. At the subsequent auction, the 35.6,000 china were stolen and Mike Hacher made a full fortune.
177 年，对普通人来说，足够漫长。但对‘海捞瓷’而言，并不是一段很长的时光。这批出水的瓷器很多都是光彩焕发，没有因为海水中盐分的腐蚀而暗淡了釉光。
In 177, it was long enough for ordinary people. It was not a long time for "sea-drawing ceramics." Many of the china that came out of the water were glowing, not dimmed by the corrosion of salt in the seawater.
几千年来，万里海疆沉船无数，引得各路寻宝人前赴后继。只不过茫茫大海，散落其间的沉船即使数以千计，相对而言依旧少得可怜。大海里最多的，是盐。从海里出水的瓷器，如果被海水浸泡的时间足够长，胎、釉的表层会被腐蚀，或者形成一层包浆（风化层）。对瓷器造成这种‘破坏’的，就是海水中的盐分。
For thousands of years, thousands of miles of ships have sank, leading to the return of treasure hunters. Only the sea is lost and the wrecks scattered between them, even if thousands of them, are still relatively few. The most important thing in the sea is salt. The china that comes out of the sea, if the sea water soaks long enough, will corrode the tops of the womb, the shoals, or form a slurry (the wind layer).
‘泰兴号’沉船瓷器盐，在海水中无处不在，但是换个时间，换个地点，盐也会像‘泰兴号’的瓷器一样，变得珍贵起来。
Salt, everywhere in the sea, but at a different time, at a different location, salt becomes precious, like the titanium of the "Theing".
因为有迈克·哈彻这样的寻宝人对水下文物肆无忌惮的打捞和破坏，中国加速组建了自己的水下考古力量。2007 年 12 月，中国考古队在南海整体打捞了负有盛名的宋代沉船‘南海一号’。4 年后的 2011 年 3 月，开始对‘南海一号’进行第二次试发掘。
In December 2007, China’s archaeology team recovered the famous SONG Dynasty 1 in the South China Sea as a whole. Four years later, in March 2011, a second exploratory excavation of the South China Sea I began.
也就在即将启动对‘南海一号’第二次试发掘的时候，日本发生了造成福岛核泄漏的‘3·11 大地震’。随后，对‘核污染或将来袭’的恐慌充斥在整个东北亚民间，甚至跨过太平洋，在海啸之前抵达美国西海岸。有人传，‘碘防辐射’。一时间，美国人抢购碘片，货柜被一扫而空，韩国人则把超市里含碘的紫菜、海菜等海藻类食物买了个精光。
And when the second exploratory excavation of the South China Sea I was about to begin, there was a "3/11 earthquake" that caused the Fukushima nuclear leak in Japan. Then, fear of "nuclear contamination or future attack" was rife throughout the Northeast Asian community, even across 
《雾里看花》| 以为价值连城，其实不值一文
谣言四起的那几天里，因为国家对食盐价格的管控，以及供应量实在是太过充裕，食盐还没来得及涨价，抢购潮就消散了。与食盐不同，另一样与生活息息相关的物品，因其在预期中将变得愈发‘稀缺’，在长时间里，价格一路走高。
In the days of rumours, because the State controls the price of salt, and because the supply is far too abundant, the price of salt has not yet risen, and the rush to buy has dissipated. Unlike salt, other items associated with life are likely to become increasingly “scarce” in anticipation, and prices have gone up for a long time.
1998 年，两名地质学家联合发表了《廉价石油时代的终结》，预言石油越来越少，油价会越来越高。虽然类似的观点早有人说，也早被事实打脸，比如 1970 年代的美国总统卡特就曾不无担忧地表示，‘下一个 10 年结束的时候，我们会把全世界所有探明的石油储量用完。’但并不妨碍类似的观点被一再提起。
In 1998, two geologists jointly published The End of the Age of Cheap Oil, predicting that less and less oil and higher oil prices will grow.
进入 21 世纪，国际原油价格不断飙涨，2003 年突破 30 美元/桶，次年突破 40 美元/桶、50 美元/桶，2005 年夏天短短 2 个月内，先后突破 60 美元/桶、70 美元/桶，到了 2008 年 3 月，国际原油价格超过 140 美元/桶。各种关于石油储存量还能供人类使用多少年的预测层出不穷。两位地质学家的预言似乎就就要成真。许多人都在问，未来还能用得起的能源在哪里？
In the twenty-first century, international crude oil prices rose sharply, breaking 30 dollars per barrel in 2003, breaking 40 dollars per barrel, 50 dollars per barrel the following year, breaking 60 dollars per barrel, 70 dollars per barrel in just two months in the summer of 2005 and, by March 2008, international crude oil prices exceeded 140 dollars per barrel. Various predictions of how many years oil reserves could still be used by humans came out. The predictions by two geologists seemed to come true. Many people were asking where affordable energy could be used in the future.
一个略显尴尬的答案是：用得起的能源来自于经济危机。就在油价达到顶峰的 2008 年 7 月，经济危机已经席卷全球。作为生产、生活的基本能源，经济下滑之后，国际石油价格也急速下坠至 30-40 美元/桶的区间。‘石油即将耗光用尽’的说法早被人们抛之脑后，忘了个干净。另一种观点反而被更多人接受：既然石油及其衍生品是经济生活的一部分，其价格就一定会在一个与经济环境匹配的价格空间。如果油价涨到整个经济难以承受的地步，一定会有经济能够承受的替代能源出现。
A slightly embarrassing answer is that affordable energy comes from the economic crisis. As oil prices peaked in July 2008, the economic crisis has engulfed the world. International oil prices fell to $30-40 per barrel after the economic downturn as a basic source of production and livelihood.
危机之后，经济复苏，国际油价也在短时间内随之上升。只不过替代能源还没有出现，技术革命就让石油的‘稀缺性’大大降低。经济危机后美国开始了‘水力压裂技术革命’（一种页岩油开采技术），打开了本国页岩油的开采大门。作为一种非常规石油，储量巨大的页岩油由于开采难度大，在很长的时间里几乎被所有人忽略。2016 年一整年，美国进口了 3.9 亿吨石油，但随着页岩油的开采，今年 9 月，美国超过俄罗斯、沙特，成为世界第一大产油国，甚至被一些机构预测在未来几年里，美国会成为一个石油净出口国。
As an unconventional oil, huge shale oil reserves have been largely ignored by everyone for a long time. In 2016, the US imported 3.9 billion tons of oil, but in September this year, with the exploitation of shale oil, the US surpassed Russia, Saudi Arabia, and became the world’s largest oil producer, and even some agencies predicted that it would become a net exporter of oil in the coming years.
《暴裂无声》| 涨涨跌跌，真真假假，难说盐也好，石油也罢，储量庞大，偶然出现的‘稀缺’，会因为各种可能，在影响价格方面变得毫无意义。相比而言，比特币的‘稀缺性’就显得十分确定。在朝阳区的杂货店老板经历‘抢盐风波’之前的 2009 年，至今不知身份的中本聪设计了去中心化的支付系统——比特币。根据设计，比特币的总数量将被永久限制在 2100 万个。当它作为一种数字货币逐渐被广泛接受、认可时，其价格也不断上涨。2010 年 5 月，一名程序员小哥花掉 1 万枚比特币，买到 2 个披萨。到 2017 年 12 月，1 枚比特币的价格就超过了 1.9 万美金。
In 2009, the owner of the grocery store in the Yooyang area, , had designed a decentralised payment system – bitcoin – to date. By design, the total number of bitcoins would be permanently limited to 21 million. When it became widely accepted as a digital currency, its prices rose. In May 2010, a programmer’s brother spent 10,000 bitcoins and bought two pizzas. By December 2017, the price of a bitcoat exceeded 1.9 million dollars.
虽然还有其它各种理由，总量恒定的‘稀缺性’都是支撑很多人不断看涨比特币的重要因素。只是很可惜，在过去一年中，数字货币价格不断下跌的大趋势里，‘追涨杀跌’的投机心理，使得很多人放弃了对其‘稀缺而有价值’的坚持。
While there are other reasons, the constant ‘difficultness’ of the total is an important factor that sustains many people’s rising bitcoins. Unfortunately, in the larger trend of falling digital currency prices over the past year, the speculative spirit of ‘crowding and falling’ has led many people to abandon their ‘scarce and valuable’ insistence on them.
风小二一位对数字货币‘颇有研究’的朋友，在一年多以前，倾其积蓄买了比特币，在今年跌跌不休的行情中始终看涨。直到周二比特币价格跌破 4100 美元时，他在朋友圈转发了一个段子：‘我有个币圈的朋友，去年和我聊买二环哪个楼盘，今天我们晚饭的时候偶然相遇，他对我说：您好，这是您的外卖。’还无奈地加了句：也许，真有庄家砸盘啊！
A friend of Windy's, who was “researching” the digital currency, bought bitcoin more than a year ago, and looked up in the business of falling and falling this year. Until Tuesday, when bitcoin fell by $4,100, he passed a chapter in his circle of friends: “I had a friend in a currency ring who talked to me about what building to buy last year, and we met at dinner today, and he said to me, “Hello, this is your takeout.”
稀缺品从来受到追捧。可什么才是‘稀缺’？也许永远都没有答案。5 年前，有善于观察风向者，判断‘高端白酒将迎来寒冬’，清空手中的茅台股票。5 年过去，茅台股价上涨了近 10 倍。可进入 2018年，就在茅台成许多人心中可收藏的稀缺品时，其股价从 6 月份的突破 800 元、总市值过万亿一路下跌到日前的 500 多块。‘物以稀为贵’，挺有道理，似乎又没什么道理。似乎没有多少人能成功地踩到正确的点上，依靠看准‘稀缺’而成功抄底。想来想去，也许就是《红楼梦》里那句话：假作真时真亦假，无为有处有还无。
In the past five years, the stock price of the huts has risen almost 10 times. In 2018, when the huts became the scarce items that many people could hold in their hearts, the stock price fell from a breakthrough of 800 yuan in June, and the total market value fell by more than 500 pieces a long time ago. It makes sense, and it doesn't seem reasonable, that `the things are precious'.
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