今天，马云就要退休了。
Today Ma Yun will retire.
去年9月10日，马云宣布一年以后将卸任阿里巴巴董事局主席一职。选在教师节这一天退休对于马云来说有着特殊的意义——马云第一份职业是英语老师，他的微博认证也是“乡村教师马云”。
On September 10, last year, Maun announced that he would resign from his post as Chairman of the Board of Directors of Alibaba a year later. The election to retire on the day of Teachers' Day was of special significance for Maun — his first profession was English — and his microblogging certification was “village teacher Maun.”
据悉，退休后的马云会比以前更忙——以前马云的重心在阿里，心系天下没有难做的生意；以后他除了要关心空气和水，还要关心沙漠与教育——退而不休是他退休后的真实写照。
It is known that the retired Maun will be more busy than ever before — that the former Maun's focus was on Ali and that there was no hard-to-do business in the world; that he will be concerned with deserts and education in addition to air and water — rather than resting on the real picture of his retirement.
羡慕杰克马生活状态的人不在少数——毕竟谁不想过着财富自由、却可以在嘴上说着“我对钱没有兴趣”的日子呢？
Those who envy Jackmar's state of life are not in the minority — who, after all, does not want to live a free life of wealth, but can say, “I am not interested in money.”
同样的，币圈也有很多人做着财富自由、然后顺利退休的梦——因为他们坚信即将到来的、四年一度的比特币减产能让比特币和山寨币的价格“todamoon”，并最终实现“单币破百万”、“一币一别墅”、“一币千倍”的终极目标，甚至已经有不少人开始幻想起退休之后是应该关心濒危动物，还是关心儿童教育了。
Similarly, there are many in the currency circles who dream of freedom of wealth and then a smooth retirement — because they are convinced that the upcoming four-year cut in bitcoin will allow the price of bitcoin and mountain coins to be “tadamon” — and eventually achieve the ultimate goals of “one dollar in a million”, “one dollar in a villa”, “one dollar in a house” and “one dollar in a thousand” — and that many have even begun to wonder whether they should care about endangered animals after retirement or about children's education.
但是比特币或是山寨币的价格会如你所愿吗？马云退休了，你也做梦想退休了吗？很不幸地告诉大家，币圈里想当然的4年一轮回规律，这一次要破产了。
But will the price of the bitcoin or the mountain coins do what you want? Maun is retired. Did you dream of retirement?
- 01 -
什么是币圈4年规律？
What's a four-year currency rule?
“人生就是一场康波。”周期天王、原中信建投首席经济学家周金涛早已下了结论，“我们每个人的财富积累，一定不要以为是你多有本事，财富积累完全来源于经济周期运动的时间给你的机会。”
"Life is a consummation." Zhou Jintao, the cyclical king and former chief economist of the Qinjin Empire, has already concluded that “the accumulation of wealth for each of us must not be seen as an opportunity for you to be able to build up wealth entirely from the time of the economic cycle”.
而区块链（或者说比特币），尽管非常年轻，但却在不大的岁数中表现出了极强的周期性，4年一度的牛熊转换在前两次比特币减半行情之中表现得淋漓尽致，这正如Ray Dalio所说的经济周期为信用借贷所导致的原理一样：
And the block chain (or bitcoin), although very young, shows an extremely cyclical nature in a relatively small number of years, with the four-year shift of cattle and bear performing well in the first two halves of bitcoin, as Ray Dalio has described as the rationale behind credit lending in the economic cycle:
2012年的11月份比特币减半，诞生了一次上涨10倍有余的超级牛市；
In November 2012, Bitcoin was halved, with the birth of a super-cow market that had increased by more than 10 times;
2016年7月，比特币产量又迎来了减半，随后币圈又展开了一轮波澜壮阔的大牛市，并最终在2017年12月达到了巅峰；
In July 2016, the production of bitcoin was halved, followed by a booming round of big cattle in the currency ring, which culminated in December 2017;
许多人都把这两次上涨归功于中本聪当时天才的设计——比特币产量每四年减半一次：比特币每四年挖矿奖励就会减半。
Many have attributed these two increases to the genius design of the time — halving the production of Bitcoin every four years — by halving the incentives for mining every four years.
基于前两次的经验，不少人已经计算出了比特币的下一波牛市时间：比特币下一次减产大约在2020年5月，也就是说2020年之后的半年到1年，又会出现一次牛市。
On the basis of the two previous experiences, a number of people have calculated the next cattle market time for Bitcoin: the next production reduction for 于是，发现了这个规律的币圈人认为比特币的底部会保持在3300美金附近，并会在2020年初突破6000美金后开启牛市行情，因此2019年是定投的最佳时间——我们伟大的李老师甚至为定投专门出了书，并孜孜不倦地进行传道。然而，比特币的走势再一次让“规律党”们大吃一惊了。 As a result, currency circles that discovered the pattern believed that Bitcoin’s bottom would remain close to $3,300 and open the cattle market after breaking $6,000 in early 2020, so 2019 was the best time – our great teacher Lee even devoted his books to it and worked tirelessly to preach. However, the movement of Bitcoin was once again a shock to the “stranges.” 早在2019年年初，The Blockchainer创始合伙人朱高峰就已经做出了预言：“历史会重演，但不会简单的重复。比特币的下一次周期会和上两次不一样，要么4年周期提前，要么4年周期严重延后。” As early as 2019, the Founding Partner of The Blockchainer had predicted: “The history of 而比特币的走势也仿佛在呼应着他的预言：比特币在最低跌到3155\$之后，并没有如一众大V所料在底部盘整一年，而是在低位盘整4个月之后迅速做出了向上突破的动作，并在6月份触及了13968\$的阶段高点，让许多人跌破了眼镜。 Bitcoin, on the other hand, seems to be echoing his predictions: after falling to $3155, Bitcoin did not go down to the bottom for a whole year, as the big V expected, but made a quick upswing four months after the low plate and touched the 13968\$ high point in June, causing many people to break their glasses. 突如其来的走势打破了币圈人的思维惯性，并让他们陷入了深深的怀疑之中：难道牛市不知不觉中就来了？ The sudden movement has broken the mindset of the currency circles and plunged them into deep doubt: does the cow market come without knowing? - 02 - 币圈现状 关于今年比特币的涨势，很多专家已经给出了不同的原因，比如贸易战、Bakkt、富达、FACEBOOK等等； With regard to the growth of Bitcoin this year, many experts have given different reasons, such as the war on trade, Bakkt, Fuda, FACEBOOK, etc.; 而关于今年山寨币止不住的跌势，专家也给出了许多原因，其中最被认可的一条就是：币圈现状太乱了，完全没有好项目，变相导致资金全部在比特币抱团取暖。 There are many reasons given by experts for this year's unstoppable fall: one of the most recognized ones is that the `strong' currency circle is so chaotic that there are no good projects at all, and the variation has led to all the funds being warmed up in bitcoin . 那么，币圈现在有多乱呢？ So, how messy is the currency now? 比如源源不断的传销币、模式币。他们披着区块链技术的外衣，其中的技术和真实的区块链原理相差甚远；他们上不去任何正规的数字货币交易平台，只能通过项目方自建的交易平台或者“传销币”温床平台进行交易；他们承诺你只涨不跌，拉人头进来以后会有回报，并进行血淋淋的收割； , such as the constant circulation of currency, model currency . They wear the coats of block chain technology, in which technology and real block chain principles are very different; they do not have access to any formal digital money trading platform, which can only be traded through a trading platform established by the project party itself or a hotbed platform for “distribution money”; they promise you will only rise and pull your head in for return, with a bloody harvest; 2018年初，大量传销项目就开始借助区块链技术来行骗、敛财；到了2019年这一现象变得更加严重，甚至有一些原本是真正在“做事”的区块链团队也开始下海搞起了“模式”。这些传销币、模式币疯狂拉盘造成的财富效应吸引了币圈许多人的目光，本就不多的存量资金“不得不”从那些真正想做实事的项目流出，流入到这些传销项目里。而由于传销币吸纳的资金太多，真正搞技术的“价值币”在自身还缺乏商业盈利能力的情况下，整个市场就形成了“劣币驱逐良币”的尴尬局面。 At the beginning of 2018, a large number of distribution projects began to use block-chain technology for fraud and enrichment; by 2019, the phenomenon became even more serious, and even the “models” of the genuinely “doing” block-chained teams began to go down the sea. The wealth effects of these money-distributions, model currency frenzys, attracted the attention of many in the currency circles, and the modest stock of funds “must” flow out of projects that really want to do something, and then flow into them. 比如层出不穷的小交易所、IEO项目。在资源被头部交易所垄断的情况下，无数小交易所本身生存都成了大问题，而跟风的IEO项目大多没有通过严格的审查，不仅没有带起平台自身的流量和用户，甚至频频“上线即割韭菜”。平台本身也时不时爆出被盗币、被攻击、甚至是直接跑路的丑闻。在这种情况下，散户们别说赚钱了，连资产安全都难以保证。 , for example, is an endless small exchange, the IEO project . In a situation where resources are monopolized by head exchanges, the survival of numerous small exchanges is a major problem, while the following IEO projects are mostly not subject to rigorous scrutiny, not only do they not bring the platform's own flow and users, but they often “upline or cut vegetables.” The platform itself also occasionally explodes a scandal of stolen currency, being attacked, or even running directly. 能拉盘的币就是好币，在散户心中，这样的“Proof of Pumping”共识正在逐渐建立。在大部分币圈群中，大家已经完全没有了刚入群时对区块链技术的向往和对一个项目基本面的热情，他们不再关心一个项目是做什么的、能解决什么问题、有哪些技术、有哪些产品，而更愿意讨论这个项目什么时候拉盘、拉几倍、什么时候上一线交易所。社群中的讨论已经离区块链本身越来越远，只有拉盘才是散户所关心的事情——形成这种共识的本质就是一种散户对两年来币圈没有出现任何杀手级应用或是颠覆性技术突破的失望。 In most currency circles, the desire for block-chain technology and enthusiasm for the fundamentals of a project are simply lost. They are less concerned about what a project is, what it solves problems, what technologies, what products it produces, and more willing to discuss when it pulls, how many times, and when it lasts. The discussion in the community is moving further away from the chain itself, and only pulls are the concern of the diaspora – the very essence of which is the disappointment that there have been no killer-level applications or disruptive breakthroughs in the currency circles for two years. 比如各种为了吸引用户做出的“创新”模式。在争抢存量市场的时代，各位大佬们可谓是想尽了方法：交易所的老板们为了吸引用户来参与，开发出了“挂单即挖矿”；活跃的Dapp中，抽奖类和高风险类一直占比最高，一个Dapp倒下了，就换个马甲继续上；项目方为了留住用户，开始搞起了模式……整个圈子中汇集了投资者、投机者、开发者、项目方，但就是没有C端的“消费者”。 , for example, various models of “innovation” to attract users . In an era of competition for stock markets, the big guys did what they could: the owners of the exchange developed a “checkout or mine” to attract users; in the dynamic Dapp, the prize and the high-risk category had been the highest, and a Dapp had fallen, and the horse armor had been replaced; in order to retain users, the project started to develop the model...The whole circle brought together investors, speculators, developers, project agents, but not consumers at the end of the C. 究其本质，还是在于整个区块链圈子都没有应用和内容真正解决了消费者的需求，而只是停留在了“炒币”这个应用之上。 The essence of this is that the whole chain of blocks does not really address consumer needs by applying and content, but rather by focusing on the application of “fibbles”. 在这个现状之下，每一个投资者和从业者不禁都会问自己这个最现实、最深刻的问题：币圈是不是快要死了？我的选择还有没有未来？ In this state of affairs, every investor and practitioner can only ask himself the most realistic and profound question: Is the currency ring dying? Is there a future in my choice? - 03 - 币圈什么时候会好？ When will the currency ring be ready? 这一次，我们尝试在其他领域找找答案，也许他山之石可以攻玉。 This time, we try to find answers in other areas, and perhaps the stone of his mountain can be attacked. 1990年12月，深圳证券交易所和上海证券交易所正式成立了。在两大证券交易所成立之后，中国股市拉开了轰轰烈烈的三十年序幕，在发展早期也出现过币圈目前所面对的问题。 In December 1990, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the Shanghai Stock Exchange were formally established. After the establishment of the two major stock exchanges, China’s stock market began three decades of intense activity, and the problems currently faced by the currency ring emerged in the early stages of development. 2000年，中国股市诞生了第一只百元股——亿安科技，如此牛气冲天、打着高科技旗号的神股背后是怎么样的呢？1999年中报显示其每股利润是0.11元，每股净资产0.57元，利润来源主要是卖VCD、SVCD和音响，还有一大块来自物业管理和仓库保管。所以，亿安科技是神话还是笑话？ In 2000, China’s stock market gave birth to its first hundred-dollar share – billion-dollar technology – so what's it like to be behind a god’s share with a high-tech flag? The 1999 mid-point report showed a profit of 0.11 dollars per share and a net asset of 0.57 dollars per share, mainly from the sale of VCDs, SVCDs, and stereos, and a lot from property management and storage. So, is it a myth or a joke? 2001年，在过去两年间创造了令人瞠目的业绩和股价神话的银广夏终于因为造假被揭发了。在中国财经界素有口碑的《财经》杂志2001年第8期推出的长篇封面文章《银广夏陷阱》称，该文记者通过对广夏（银川）实业股份有限公司历时一年的追踪调查，终于揭开了一个由高深的“萃取技术”和陌生的“德国客户”组成的虚假故事； In 2001, Silver Guangxia, which created the myth of spectacular performance and stock prices over the past two years, was finally exposed for forgery. According to the long cover article "The Silver Guangxia Trap" launched in issue 8 of 2001 in the Financial and Economic Journal of China, the journalist, through a year-long follow-up investigation into Guangxia Business, Inc., finally uncovered a false story of deep “extracting technology” and unfamiliar “German customers.” 2002年，被称作“中国历史上最精致的假货”的蓝田股份终于露馅了。这个在很长时间里经得起专家挑剔、让监管部门难以查到造假直接证据的假货终于被刘姝威（一手催化币圈9.4事件、让孙宇晨低头的女人）揭露了，短短一篇600字的文章对蓝田的资产结构、现金流向情况和偿债能力作了详尽的分析后，得出结论是蓝田业绩有虚假成分，而业绩神话完全靠银行贷款； In 2002, the Slander shares, known as the “best fake in China’s history,” were finally revealed. This fake, which for a long period of time stood up to expert criticism and made it difficult for regulators to find direct evidence of counterfeiting, was revealed by Liu Xiaowei (a woman with a currency ring of 9.4, who brought Sun Woo down in the morning), and a short 600-word article containing a detailed analysis of the structure, cash flow and solvency of Slanda’s assets, concluded that the performance of Slanda had a false component and that the myth of performance depended entirely on bank loans; 当然了，这些因行业早期乱象而催生的企业最终都自食恶果了：亿安集团副总裁、财务总监李鸿清等5人因犯有“操纵证券交易价格罪”，被分别判有期徒刑2年3个月至3年半不等；负责审计银广夏财务数据的深圳中天勤会计事务所解体；2002年1月，蓝田股份被强制停牌...... Of course, these enterprises, which were created by early disruptions in the industry, eventually suffered the consequences: five of them were sentenced to two years, three months and three and a half years, respectively, for “dealing the price of the securities deal”, five of them were sentenced to two years, three months and three and a half years; the firm responsible for auditing Silver Guangxia’s financial data was dissolved; and in January 2002, the stock of Landa was suspended by force... 那么，股市是怎么去除掉这些骗子股，而好转起来的呢？答案是贵州茅台、万科、招商银行等这些破除零和博弈概念、真正能产生现金流的企业的出现。 So how does the stock market get rid of these swindlers and get better? The answer to ‘strong’ is the emergence of businesses that break the concept of zero-sum games and really generate cash flows . 以贵州茅台为例：2019年上半年就已经实现了412亿元的收入，同比增长16.9%；实现净利润199亿元，同比增长26.2%；2018年向全体股东每10股派发现金红利145.39元，合计派发现金红利总额为183亿元。在如此充沛现金流的支撑之下，也难怪私募大佬、巴菲特的忠实信徒但斌会喊出“某种意义上、图腾式品牌茅台酒供不应求的状况，象征着中国人富裕的程度，是中国改革开放结出硕果的某种体现”的口号了。 In the first half of 2019, for example, you have already earned $41.2 billion, an increase of 16.9%; achieved a net profit of $19.9 billion, an increase of 26.2%; found a gold dividend of $14.539 per 10 shares to all shareholders in 2018, with a combined gold dividend of $18.3 billion. It is no wonder that, supported by such a strong cash flow, Buffett’s faithful but Bin would be calling out “a situation in which the Chinese people, in a sense, are overstretched, symbolize the extent to which they are rich, a sign of the success of China’s reform opening up.” 回到币圈来看，其实和早期的股市非常相似。尽管目前传销币、模式币横行，劣币驱除良币，资金被迫选择在比特币抱团取暖……但这只不过是区块链浪潮开始阶段的沧海一粟。无论是部分项目方的投机取巧、还是投资者对模式币的热捧，都只是币圈进入发展瓶颈期的产物，只会是暂时的，不会是永久的，而那些没有盈利能力或者没有网络效应的项目终归会慢慢淡出历史舞台。 Returning to the currency circle, it is very similar to the earlier stock markets. Despite the current spread of currency, model currency, and the banishment of currency, money is forced to warm up in bitcoins... This is just the beginning of the wave of block chains. 目前来看，在币圈拥有稳定现金流的除了交易所平台币（券商股概念），只有以关注度、流量计价的网红项目。但是随着行业周期的更替和技术的迭代，越来越多能打破零和博弈的优质项目必然会出现在币圈的舞台之上。目前比特币占比的持续上升反而是行业更加冷静、成熟的表现，也有利于市场主动出清那些只会喊单、炒作的垃圾项目。至于币圈最后会不会变成比特币一枝独秀的舞台？无需担心，无论是作为新兴区块链项目的代币市场，还是仅仅作为比特币的价值溢出，竞争币都有着充分存在着的理由。 But, with the succession of industry cycles and technology, a growing number of high-quality projects that break zero-sum games are bound to emerge on the stage of the currency circles. The ongoing rise in Bitcoins is, rather, a calmer, more mature industry and an incentive for markets to come forward with bill-and-roll schemes. 回到开头，为什么我会说“币圈里想当然的4年一轮回规律，这一次要破产了”呢？因为我在行业中只看到了无数的骗子和一堆乌烟瘴气的项目；因为我还没看到优质落地项目的诞生；而在行业驱除完骗子、价值币能产生商业盈利之前，我只能说：“冬天还将继续，极夜还未到来。。。” Back at the beginning, why would I say, “The four-year cycle of currency circles, of course, is going bankrupt?” Because I see in the industry only numerous liars and a bunch of smokey projects; because I haven't seen the birth of a high-quality landing project; and until the industry removes the liars and the value coins generate commercial profits, I can only say, “The winter of ‘strong’ will continue and the night will not come.” The Blockchainer已深度布局垂直赛道如区块链游戏、区块链金融和区块链基础设施，并已在北京、上海、香港、美国硅谷、韩国首尔等地区设立办公室，旨在为来自全球各地的、有深度商业潜力并有机会成为头部的区块链组织提供全生命周期的如行业咨询、资本支持、融通交易、商业辅导、资源对接、人才服务、市场推广、社区建设等一站式、多节点、整合化、具备强力协同且以最佳联合创始人定位输出价值的行业综合性服务。 The Blockchainer has deep vertically configured track tracks such as block-chain games, block-chain finance and block-chain infrastructure, and has established offices in Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Silicon Valley, Seoul, Korea, etc., aimed at providing a full-cycle integrated industry service such as industry advice, capital support, trade facilitation, business coaching, resource matching, talent services, market extension, community building, etc., with strong synergies and the value of positioning output with the best co-founder.
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