本文源自Medium，由作者Jeffery Hancock撰写，经Odaily星球日报译者Moni翻译呈现。以太坊（Ethereum）作为一种加密货币协议，以其独特的设计与比特币（Bitcoin）、莱特币（Litecoin）及其他支付技术区别开来，蕴含了更多价值及潜力。下文将从历史演变的角度深入剖析以太坊价格波动，回顾过往价格趋势及硬分叉历程，并对其未来前景进行展望。
This paper is from Medium, by Jeffrey Hancock, author, translated by Moni, an interpreter for the Odaily Daily Planet. Using Etheeum as an encrypted currency agreement with its unique design as distinct from Bitcoin, Litecoin, and other payment techniques, it has added value and potential.
据Etherscan.io数据显示，以太坊首笔有价交易发生在2015年8月7日，当日ETH登陆Kraken交易所，价格达2.77美元。然而仅隔三日，价格即暴跌至0.68美元，这可能源于早期投资者的快速套现行为。同年8月13日，市场意识到以太坊的潜在价值，价格回升至1.8美元并维持了三天；8月18日，随着第10万个区块的开采，以太坊迎来了一个重要里程碑，但价格却降至1美元，并在随后两个月内持续下滑。彼时，以太坊的价格走势几乎映射了加密货币市场的普遍状况，而早期投资者开始陆续抛售预售阶段购得的代币。
According to the Ethercan.io data, the first deal with Tai Pa took place on 7 August 2015, when ETH landed on the Kraken Exchange at a price of $2.77. However, three days later, prices fell sharply to $0.68, possibly as a result of the early investor’s fast-tracking. On 13 August of the same year, markets realized the potential value of Tai Pa, and prices recovered to $1.8 and remained constant for three days; on 18 August, with the mining of 100,000 blocks, a significant milestone was reached in Tai Pa, but prices fell to $1 and continued to decline over the next two months.
直至2015年10月，以太坊价格跌至0.43美元，才止住跌势，并逐步攀升至1.3美元。历经三个月调整后，价格基本稳定在0.8-1美元区间。期间，越来越多的加密货币爱好者开始关注ETH。同年11月9日至13日举办的首届以太坊开发者大会Devcon，吸引了包括IBM、微软、UBS等业界巨头参与，大会积极探讨以太坊的发展路径，为以太坊的推广作出重要贡献。
It was not until October 2015, when Taipa prices fell to 0.43 dollars, that they stopped falling and climbed to $1.3. After three months of adjustment, prices remained largely stable in the 0.8-1 dollar range. During this period, more and more encrypt money fans began to focus on ETH. Devcon, the first conference of Etheria developers, held from 9 to 13 November of the same year, attracted a large number of industry leaders, including IBM, Microsoft and UBS, and the Congress actively explored the development path of Etheria as an important contribution to its outreach.
2016年：DAO事件、黑客攻击与以太坊经典（Ethereum Classic）的诞生2016年1月11日，以太坊价格突破1美元大关，自此未曾重回其下。接下来两个月内，伴随市场传言以太坊将升级至更为稳定的Homestead版本网络协议，其价格快速上涨。至3月13日，以太坊价格已触及15美元大关，使其市值首次突破10亿美元。3月14日，以太坊实施Homestead硬分叉，引起价格剧烈震荡，至四月底，价格曾两度下跌，最低触及7.3美元。
In the next two months, prices rose rapidly, accompanied by rumours that the market will be upgraded to a more stable Homestead version of the network agreement. By March 13, ETA prices had reached the $15 mark, bringing its market value to $1 billion for the first time. On March 14, ETA implemented the Homestead hard split, causing a sharp price shock. By the end of April, prices had fallen twice, reaching a minimum of $7.3.
DAO项目的成功引发广泛关注，以太坊价格攀升至新高点，达2016年的年度峰值：20.6美元。作为代币销售的一部分，DAO项目筹集逾1200万ETH（约合1.5亿美元），几乎开创了初始代币发行（ICO）的时代，并奠定了以太坊作为吸引投资者资金主要选择的地位。然而6月16日发生的DAO黑客攻击事件，导致近5000万美元的ETH被盗，引发市场恐慌，以太坊价格在短短两天内下跌近50%，跌至11美元。
The success of the DAO project, which rose to a new high with Taiyo prices, reached its annual peak of $20.6 in 2016. As part of its sales in currencies, the DAO project raised more than 12 million ETHs (approximately $150 million), almost ushering in the era of initial currency issuance (ICOs) and laying down the position of Tai Pa as the main option for attracting investors’ funds. However, the DAO hacker attack on 16 June, which led to the theft of nearly $50 million in ETH, caused market panic, and dropped nearly 50 per cent to $11 in just two days at the same price.
之后，围绕Vitalik Buterin计划通过硬分叉恢复以太坊网络至攻击前状态并追回被盗资金的提案，社区展开激烈讨论。这一背景使以太坊价格受到较大影响，波动加剧。至7月7日，以太坊价格一度跌至10美元的关键支撑位。7月20日，以太坊实施具有争议的硬分叉，由此产生了如今的Ethereum Classic（ETC）。ETC诞生之初虽短暂回升至接近15美元，但最终仍未能摆脱下跌趋势，至8月初再度回落至8美元附近。
After that, there was intense discussion in the community about the proposal to restore the ETA network to pre-attack status and recover stolen funds by means of the Vitalik Buterin plan. This background led to a greater impact on and volatility in the prices of the Etherms. By July 7, the price of the Etherms fell to a critical ten dollar base. On July 20, the Etherium was implemented with a controversial hard split, resulting in today’s Etherium Classic (ETC). The EtC, although briefly recovered to close to $15 at the beginning of its birth, eventually did not get out of the downward trend and fell again to around $8 in early August.
2017年：牛市狂潮席卷而来！许多人或许并未察觉，以太坊2017年初的价格仅为8美元。然而整个一月和二月间，价格稳定上涨至13美元。2月23日，以太坊加入社交交易平台eToro，为其价格加速上涨增添了助力。同日，比特币网络未确认交易数量高达10万笔，越来越多的加密货币投资者认为比特币网络过于滞后，转而将目光投向了以太坊。
Many people may not have noticed that the price of Taiwon at the beginning of 2017 was only $8. However, prices rose steadily to $13 throughout January and February. On February 23, Taiyan joined the social trading platform eToro, adding to its acceleration of prices. On the same day, the Bitcoin network did not confirm the number of transactions as high as 100,000, and an increasing number of crypto-currency investors thought that the Bitcoin network was lagging too late and turned their eyes to Etheria.
整个三月，以太坊多次尝试突破20美元的阻力位，但未取得实质性突破。然而接下来的一周，以太坊价格突然飙升至45美元（在某些交易所甚至涨至55美元），日均交易额高达4.5亿美元。当月，价格基本保持在53-59美元区间，继而又在40-50美元区间进行盘整。
Throughout March, Etheria tried many times to break through the $20 resistance, but did not make a substantial breakthrough. But the following week, the price of Taiteng suddenly jumped to $45 (or even $55 in some exchanges) with an average daily transaction of $450 million.
2017年4月26日，以太坊价格启动新一轮上涨，短短十日内近乎翻倍。5月5日，价格飙升至95美元，与此同时，比特币未确认交易量已超过50万枚，其网络速度明显放缓，部分原因在于许多矿工转向了以太坊区块链。
On April 26, 2017, a new round of price hikes was launched at Taiwan, nearly doubling in just 10 days. On May 5, prices jumped to $95, while Bitcoin’s unconfirmed trading volume exceeded half a million and its network slowed significantly, partly because many miners turned to the Ether block chain.
比特币在2017年亦处在增长期，引领着加密货币市场的整体发展方向。众多加密货币跟随比特币的步伐，增速惊人。5月18日，以太坊入驻AVATRADE交易平台，推动价格一路高涨，不到一个月的时间里涨幅四倍，至6月12日达到前所未有的400美元高点，意味着半年前买入的投资者此刻卖出将实现50倍的投资回报率。同时，以太坊在加密货币市场总市值占比创下历史新高，达到31.5%，较年初的4%显著提升。
Bitcoin was also growing in 2017, leading the overall development of the crypto-currency market. Numerous encrypted currencies followed the pace of Bitcoin, increasing at an alarming rate. On May 18, Taipan entered the AVATRADE trading platform, pushing prices up fourfold in less than a month, reaching an unprecedented $400 high on June 12, meaning that investors buying them would sell 50 times the return on investment at the moment.
以太坊在加密社区及dApp开发者环境中的广泛应用，以及ICO项目对ETH需求的增长（许多项目选择ETH作为其代币销售期间接受的主要支付加密货币），这些因素共同促成了以太坊价格的上涨。
The extensive application of the Tails in the encrypt communities and dapp developers environment, as well as the increased demand for ETH for the ICO project (many projects have chosen ETH as the main payment encrypt currency to be accepted during the sale of their tokens), have combined to contribute to the increase in the prices of Tails.
然而，在价格如此迅猛上涨之后，监管部门开始关注ICO并施加压力，以太坊价格随之遭遇连续一个月的回调。7月16日，价格回落至150美元，但随即开启了新的上涨浪潮，至9月1日再次站上400美元高点。然而，随后两周时间内的修正行情尤为严重，特别是在中国发布了禁止ICO和加密货币交易的“94禁令”后，整个加密货币市场遭受重挫，以太坊价格腰斩，收于200美元。
However, following such rapid price hikes, regulators began to focus on the ICO and put pressure on it, which was followed by a month-long round-up of Taiyo prices. On July 16, prices fell to $150, but a new wave of upswings began immediately, and again reached a high of $400 on September 1. However, the amendments in the following two weeks were particularly serious, particularly after China issued a “94 ban” on ICO and encrypted currency transactions, and the entire encrypted currency market suffered a severe setback, amounting to $200 at Taipan prices.
直到10月中旬，随着拜占庭硬分叉的消息传来，以太坊价格开始逐渐恢复。10月15日，以太坊完成硬分叉升级，价格随后开始平稳调整。11月中旬，价格基本稳固在275-300美元区间，然而自11月23日起，随着ICO泡沫的持续膨胀以及以太坊仍是项目融资主要支付手段的事实，价格迅速突破400美元大关，并在该位置持稳了两周半。同期，比特币价格飙升至2万美元的历史高位，也带动了整个加密货币市场价格水平的提升。
Until mid-October, as news of Byzantine's hard splits began to rise, the price began to recover. On October 15, the hard fork upgrade was completed in the district, and prices began to adjust steadily. In mid-November, prices were largely stable in the $275-300 area, but since November 23, with the continued expansion of the ICO bubble and the fact that the district was still the main means of payment for project financing, prices quickly broke through the $400 mark and remained stable for two and a half weeks. During the same period, Bitco’s price surged to a historic high of $20,000, which also led to an increase in price levels in the entire encrypted currency market.
进入2017年12月11日，以太坊开始了自2016年以来的最后一个增长阶段，并一度达到800美元的高位。正如当时市场上的大多数加密货币一样，随着比特币价格80%的回调，以太坊价格也进行了相应调整，短暂回调至500-600美元区间，并在年底多次试图突破750美元大关。
On December 11, 2017, Ether began its last phase of growth since 2016, reaching a peak of $800. As was the case with most of the encrypt currencies in the market at that time, with 80% of the price of bitcoins, the prices were adjusted accordingly, moving briefly to the $500-600 area and attempting to break through the $750 mark several times at the end of the year.
2018年第一天，以太坊价格便开启了一场疯狂飙升之旅，这并不夸张。1月13日，以太坊价格触及历史最高水平，达1400美元。同一时期，多数山寨币的价格同步上扬，其中不少亦创下了历史新高。
It is no exaggeration that, on the first day of 2018, a frenzy of price hikes began. On January 13, the price of taupe prices reached an all-time high of $1,400. During the same period, the prices of most of the bounties rose simultaneously, and many of them reached an all-time high.
然而好景不长，随着比特币价格回调，市场热情渐退。尽管1月28日以太坊价格短暂上涨至1250美元高位，但随后迅速下跌。其价格走低的主要原因之一正是受比特币价格下跌影响，此现象贯穿了整个2018年，形成了一种下跌趋势。
One of the main reasons for falling prices was the fall in bitcoin prices, which continued throughout 2018, creating a downward trend.
2月5日，以太坊价格从700美元低位反弹，一度回升至900美元。2月14日，以太坊开发团队宣布即将发布Go Iceberg客户端，此消息提振了市场情绪，促使价格在2月18日攀升至1000美元。但从那时起，直至4月份，以太坊价格一直在下跌，最终探底至380美元。随后在4月12日，以太坊迎来年内最后一次重大反弹，价格重返500美元水平。
On February 14, the team announced the forthcoming release of the Go Iceberg client, which boosted market sentiment and pushed prices up to $1,000 on February 18. But since then, until April, the price of Etheria has been falling, eventually down to $380. Then, on April 12, the last major rebound in the year, with prices returning to $500.
这次反弹引发了一波上涨行情，但未能持久。至5月5日，以太坊价格触及830美元，然而直至9月中旬，价格始终保持稳步下跌态势（反弹力度微弱）。
The rebound triggered a wave of upswing, but did not last long. By 5 May, US$ 830 had been reached at the Tahrir price, but prices remained steadily declining until mid-September (the rebound was weak).
2017年，ICO项目极大地刺激了以太坊价格的上涨，但在2018
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